Five Breakout Candidates to Watch in the 2025 MLB season
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Spring training is always packed with players in the ‘best shape of their life’. Pitchers have made tweaks, unlocking more velocity or adding new pitches. Hitters alter their swings, trying to have better zone coverage, and sometimes looking to lift the ball more.
Part of making preseason MLB predictions is trying to dig through all the cliches and red herrings to identify the real, meaningful changes players have made which could lead to a significant breakout in the coming season.
Below, we have picked five serious breakout candidates for the 2025 regular season:
Hayden Birdsong
Hayden Birdsong threw 72 innings at a 4.75 ERA in 2024. That’s nothing to get too excited about on the surface, yet Birdsong struck out 88 hitters in those 72 frames, and was largely solid apart from a couple of poor starts in August.
His slider, curveball, and change rank well-above average, according to stuff+. The command is the concern, with over five walks per nine innings last season and subpar location+ numbers across the board.
Early signs in spring are encouraging. Birdsong hit 98.8 mph on his fastball, having averaged 95.8 in 2024. Hitters crushed his fastball last season, so adding that extra velocity could make a huge difference.
Jackson Holliday
Entering the 2024 season as the sport’s top overall prospect, Jackson Holliday fell a long way short of the sky-high expectation with a .189/.255/.311 line. He played only 60 games in the big leagues but continued to impress at Triple-A with a .908 OPS.
Gunnar Henderson could miss opening day. Connor Norby was traded away midway through the 2024 campaign. Holliday has a great chance to be on the opening day roster and ensure he has played his final Triple-A game.
All the tools that made Holliday such a highly regarded prospect are still there. His sprint speed is elite, and even in a subpar 2024, he had a 45.1% hard-hit rate.
Sean Burke
The Chicago White Sox have nothing to lose by slotting Sean Burke into their opening day rotation. Burke was one of the ChiSox’s top prospects a couple of winters ago before injury kept him to nine Triple-A starts in 2023.
While his 2024 season wasn’t anything special in the minors, Burke struck out more than a hitter per inning in 19 big-league frames and has an impressive arsenal capable of making life difficult for the world’s best hitters.
Chicago won’t push Burke to 180 innings given how far away they are from competing. He could throw 130 or so frames, though, which is more than enough to deliver a breakout in the majors.
Jhonkensy Noel
Jhonkensy Noel had 18 homers in Triple-A last season before hitting 13 in 67 MLB games. You could argue Big Christmas has already broken out, but a .774 OPS in the majors isn’t enough to have made him a household name.
Boasting one of baseball’s best nicknames with elite bat speed, a 14.5% barrel rate, and an above-average arm, Noel is the kind of package that can become adored by fans around the big leagues.
His OPS being 285 points higher against lefties than righties is a bit of a concern going forward. Maybe he becomes a bench platoon bat. The raw power is still exciting, though, and he’s got a role to play on a Cleveland Guardians team that struggles to hit bombs.
Royce Lewis
Like Holliday, this pick is banking on prospect pedigree. Unlike Holliday, Royce Lewis made his MLB debut three years ago.
Injuries have deprived Lewis of consistent play in the majors. He’s played 152 games across the 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons, with two ACL surgeries, abductor, quad, hamstring, and oblique problems sidelining him at different points.
Despite such disruption, Lewis has been a productive hitter. He’s got a career .825 OPS, walked in 8.6% of plate appearances in 2024, and has consistently been able to pull the ball in the air.
If Lewis plays 140+ games, he’s going to hit at least 25 homers, and could have an OPS+ above 130 if the small sample in 2023 is anything to go by.
