Tennis: A First Round That Promises Surprises in Miami
by Tyler Doty
Arnaldi Aiming to Make an Impact
This year, in addition to the top seeds who are expected to show up, other players should grab attention in the early rounds of the tournament and in your upcoming tennis predictions. Indeed, some players could make a statement right from the start and confirm their status as outsiders.
First up is Italian Matteo Arnaldi, who is expected to be a strong contender. The 24-year-old is back at the Miami tournament, which treated him well last year when he won his first three rounds to reach the Round of 16. He notably pulled off impressive wins against heavy favorites like Frenchman Arthur Fils, Alexander Bublik, and Canadian Denis Shapovalov, all in straight sets.
With last year's success in mind, Arnaldi should arrive confident on American soil, aiming to repeat those consecutive victories in the early rounds. Additionally, having competed at the BNP Paribas Open last week, he managed to win his first two rounds without much trouble, first beating Aleksandar Kovacevic (ranked 79th) and then surprising world number 9, Andrey Rublev. This marked his third time winning his first two rounds this season, having also gone beyond the first round in Dallas and Delray Beach. Although his first opponent, Chinese player Yibing Wu, is within reach, he may face seeded Tomas Machac in the second round, where he could create another surprise.
Reilly Opelka In the Spotlight
Next, American Reilly Opelka should be watched as he makes his return to the courts, looking to make a deeper run in this tournament and feature in our ATP Miami predictions. After staying away from tennis courts in 2023, the 27-year-old has played only a limited number of matches in 2024 but is attempting a comeback this year. He’s benefiting from a protected ranking in this tournament, and it didn’t stop him from surprising everyone at the Brisbane tournament early this year, winning four consecutive matches. His unexpected victories include a two-set win over world number 5 Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals and a victory over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard to reach the final.
Although Opelka ultimately withdrew during the final against Jiri Lehecka, he made a successful return and showed he could rise to the occasion at major events. He won his first two rounds in Dallas recently and will be looking to return to the form that impressed many on hard courts. If he beats compatriot Christopher Eubanks in the first round, he could make a statement against 11th-seeded Holger Rune.
Will Gaël Monfils Be a Contender Again?
Frenchman Gaël Monfils, 38, also carries the status of an outsider in this Masters 1000. If one name had to be chosen to embody the word "outsider," it would likely be his. Monfils, determined in every match, gives his all and often manages to surprise. Last week, at the BNP Paribas Open, he easily won his first round against Jan-Lennard Struff and then showed his motivation by beating local player Sebastian Korda, ranked 25th, in a close two-set match (7-6, 7-6).
He was then eliminated in the Round of 16 by top 15 player Grigor Dimitrov but was very close to winning in a tight three-set match decided by a tiebreak. A winner of the Auckland hard court tournament earlier this year, Monfils also won his first three rounds at the Australian Open, including a win over world number 4 Taylor Fritz, and made it to the second round at last year’s Miami Masters 1000. These encouraging results should help him succeed in the first rounds of this tournament. It's especially in the second round where he could show his full motivation against Czech Jiri Lehecka.
João Fonseca: The Rising Star
Finally, all eyes should be on 18-year-old Brazilian João Fonseca in the opening rounds. Described as the new star of men's tennis, Fonseca made a name for himself by winning the ATP Next Gen Finals title last year, defeating American Learner Tien. This victory undoubtedly boosted his confidence, as he began his 2025 season by winning the Canberra Challenger.
His first-round victory at the Australian Open against top 10 player Andrey Rublev surely gave him even more confidence to continue challenging the best. Fonseca also won his first ATP title on clay in Buenos Aires, defeating local favorite Francisco Cerundolo, ranked 24th.
The Brazilian has been playing some excellent tennis in recent weeks.
After winning his first-round match at Indian Wells last week, he was stopped in the second round by Jack Draper. However, he recently won the Challenger title in Phoenix, beating Alexander Bublik. His strong start to the season, both on hard courts and clay, should give him hope for a good run in this Masters 1000. He faces Learner Tien, whom he defeated in the Next Gen Finals, in the first round and should be able to beat him again to reach the top 20, where Ugo Humbert awaits.
We are likely to see some great opening rounds from these various players, who are considered outsiders and could advance well beyond the first round, potentially joining the tournament's top seeds.
