NCAA Women’s Basketball: Los Angeles Powers Get Vastly Different Paths
by Dan Angell | by Tyler Doty
Women's College Basketball: Spokane
UCLA and USC both getting No. 1 seeds was hardly a surprise. Both Los Angeles powerhouses from the Big Ten were among the top teams nationally all year, and both going to Spokane made complete sense. But the way they were treated was very different, and it’s easy to see the Trojans having a case for getting disrespected.
UCLA only lost two games all year, but both came against USC and one was in Pauley Pavilion. The Bruins won the third game, but that was in Indianapolis with both teams on their third game in three days. And while the Bruins do carry a win over South Carolina, it’s tough to justify USC sliding past Texas just because it couldn’t win round 3 when the Bruins had an unfair advantage. While USC had to get past a motivated Michigan squad, UCLA was on cruise control from the beginning against Ohio State. That made a difference the next day, as the Trojans had nothing left in the second half.
That won’t happen if there’s a fourth matchup. Both teams will be on full rest, and USC has shown that when JuJu Watkins is on full rest, UCLA can’t stop her. But with a red-hot Connecticut in the Trojans’ regional, there’s no guarantee that USC gets there in the first place.
Here’s a deep dive into the two Spokane regionals for your college basketball predictions.
How Disrespected Should USC Feel?
The Trojans have plenty of reasons to gripe about their seed and position. USC won the Big Ten regular-season title and two out of three against UCLA. The consensus was that the Trojans had done enough to earn one of the top three seeds nationally, and if it had only been UCLA and South Carolina seeded higher, that would have been fine.
Instead, Texas got the third overall seed, and USC found itself the last No. 1 and paired with Connecticut. And with Paige Bueckers healthy and the Huskies firing on all cylinders, that was the last place a No. 1 seed wanted to be. USC survived Connecticut in the first meeting, a 72-70 classic, and it will need to dig deep in a rematch.
The rest of the regional, however, is really not that bad.
Kansas State crashed down the stretch, and the Wildcats aren’t going to scare anybody as a No. 5 seed.
In fact, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Fairfield, 28-4 overall, took down K-State in the opening round in Lexington. On a neutral court, Kansas State just isn’t a worrisome opponent right now.
Kentucky and Oklahoma were a cut below the three SEC giants of South Carolina, Texas and LSU this season. Getting Oklahoma instead of LSU as a No. 3 seed was a break for the Trojans, as the Sooners were 0-4 against the SEC heavyweights. Oklahoma must be respected, as does anyone who can score 99 points on Duke (although the Sooners lost by 10), but USC would much prefer to see the Sooners over the Huskies in the regional final.
The same holds for Iowa. The Hawkeyes deserved about a No. 6, and they were good enough to beat USC in Iowa City. But again, the Trojans would consider it a break if they have to play Iowa for a Final Four spot instead of Connecticut.
Is UCLA’s Path What the Bruins Deserved?
Probably not. Getting N.C. State as a No. 2 seed instead of Duke or TCU probably wasn’t what UCLA wanted, and getting LSU as a No. 3 is far from ideal. State doesn’t make mistakes with the basketball and has a good chunk of its team back from last year’s Final Four squad. That the Wolfpack lost the ACC final to Duke wasn’t a true reflection of their power; they’re the better team and a tougher matchup.
Whether LSU joins the Wolfpack as their opponent in Spokane depends on if Flau’Jae Johnson can get back to full health. The Bayou Bengals love to push the tempo and score in bunches, but they are not the same team without Johnson. She hasn’t played a minute in March because of shin inflammation, and the Tigers aren’t going to be able to stand up to the Wolfpack’s guard play without her. Even before that, LSU might have its hands full with the pace of Florida State, as the Seminoles like to turn every game into a track meet.
Kim Mulkey has reached the Sweet 16 in 14 of her past 15 NCAA tournaments, so picking against her is a big risk. But if Johnson isn’t there, Florida State could run the Tigers out of the tournament.
In the top half of the bracket, the Bruins are in much better shape. They beat No. 4 Baylor by 15 in Waco in the regular season, and Ole Miss is not a scary No. 5 seed.
Who Could Bust Brackets?
Florida State might be ready to run with LSU, but it’s not going to happen unless the Seminoles can survive a contrast in styles with George Mason. The Patriots play excellent defense and love to gum up opponents, having held 20 teams below 60 points this year.
Florida State is much more comfortable when it gets the game into the 90s. George Mason isn’t very comfortable with high-scoring games, so this is a question of who can play its way.
Both No. 12 seeds are intriguing.
Ball State is sure-handed with the basketball and could cause some real problems for Ole Miss, and Fairfield can make 3-point shots all day long. The Stags in particular could cause real headaches for Kansas State, especially if Ayoka Lee isn’t on the floor.
Which Lower Seeds Could Make a Run?
South Dakota State might have made things interesting for a long run if they didn’t have to face Connecticut in the second round. The Jackrabbits get a high seed for a small school every year (they’re a No. 10 this season), and they could easily pick off Oklahoma State. South Dakota State has been here before and went 29-3 on the season. The three losses were Duke, Georgia Tech and Texas, and they beat tournament teams Creighton, Oregon and Ball State. They will not be scared of anything Oklahoma State brings to the table.
Harvard also has intriguing potential. Michigan State couldn’t handle Iowa in the Big Ten tournament, and the Spartans are a smaller, quicker team. That’s something an Ivy League squad can handle, especially one as talented as the Crimson. It should not shock anyone if Harvard reaches the second round.
Who Makes the Final Four?
The Spokane side of the bracket appears wide open. USC is the best team, but facing Connecticut is going to be a tough matchup. It’s hard to pick against either one, but given that JuJu Watkins won the first matchup, it stands to reason to think the Trojans narrowly survive again.
But do they get a fourth game with UCLA? The feeling here is that they don’t. While the Bruins have been dominant all season, their guard play is a concern against N.C. State. The Wolfpack, not the Bruins, have been here before and know what it takes to win at this level. They were underdogs against Texas in the regional final and pulled off a win there, and it feels like they’ll do it again this time to the Bruins.
