NCAA Women’s Basketball: SEC Leads the Way Through Birmingham
by Dan Angell | by Tyler Doty
NCAA Women's: Birmingham
Birmingham will host two of the four regionals this season in the women’s tournament, and it makes sense that the SEC would head up the eastern path to the Final Four. The league was dominant this year, as you’d expect with Texas joining South Carolina in the SEC. Both teams were excellent, with the Gamecocks winning the season series 2-1. And both teams were rewarded with a No. 1 seed, which raised a few eyebrows.
Pulling Texas off the No. 1 line was always going to be tough, but the Longhorns actually ended up ranked higher than Southern California. The Trojans ended up the fourth No. 1 seed, while Texas ranked third behind UCLA and South Carolina. And that means there’s going to be extra scrutiny on the Longhorns, who got to the Elite Eight a year ago but could not close the deal.
For South Carolina, anything less than the Final Four will be a shock and disappointment.
The Gamecocks have won two of the past three national titles, including a perfect season last year. They probably would have won three of five if 2020 hadn’t been canceled, and the two years where they fell short saw them reach the Final Four. Excluding 2020, the Gamecocks have made six Final Fours in the past nine years, so the odds of picking them off are pretty long.
Here’s a deep dive into the two Birmingham regionals for your NCAA predictions.
Who Can Challenge South Carolina?
The Gamecocks got a very reasonable draw, and possibly a better one than top overall seed UCLA. Dawn Staley might have complained that South Carolina got snubbed by falling to No. 2 overall, but a regional with Duke as the No. 2, North Carolina No. 3, Maryland at No. 4 and Alabama at No. 5 is not terribly scary.
Yes, the Blue Devils are coming off the ACC championship, and Kara Lawson has proven herself a big game coach by getting Duke to the Sweet 16 last season. But there seems to be a bit of a recency bias here. Duke was not No. 2 seed caliber until the final three weeks of the season, when the Blue Devils put things together and locked down on defense. But Duke has already played South Carolina, and the Gamecocks put up 81 points on the Blue Devils, taking away any question of what they can do in that matchup.
Maryland isn’t a great No. 4 seed either, as the Terrapins’ defense was shockingly bad in allowing Michigan to shoot 61% in the Big Ten tournament. Brenda Frese’s teams have usually been known for strong defense, but Maryland was nowhere close in that game and hasn’t been for several weeks. Given that you’re not going to outscore South Carolina, it’s difficult to see the Terrapins making a challenge.
The toughest test for the Gamecocks might come in the second round, and that’s if Indiana can survive the 8/9 game with Utah. The Hoosiers are excellent 3-point shooters, but they’re not very good at getting the rebound. If they get hot, they can play with anyone, as they showed by nearly taking down USC.
Does Texas Get Out Of Its Region?
The Longhorns got a more favorable road than they deserved. The consensus was that they would end up the last No. 1 seed, or even a No. 2 behind Connecticut. Instead, they get a TCU squad that ran through a middling Big 12 and a Notre Dame team that has looked lost for the past couple weeks. That’s something any No. 1 seed will gladly take, even though the Irish have more talent than they’ve shown.
That doesn’t mean that Texas is safe. The Longhorns will have a tall task getting around any of Tennessee, Ohio State or South Florida in the round of 32. The Volunteers are playing some of the best basketball in the country and likely feel disrespected to drop to a No. 5 seed. South Florida also feels disrespected, as the Bulls should not have fallen to the No. 12 line. This team beat Duke and can play with just about anybody.
Louisville could also be dangerous in the bracket’s bottom half. The Cardinals were a strong ACC team this year, but only received a No. 7 for their troubles. They could be without Jayda Curry, which would justify dropping them to the seven line. But if Curry is fully healthy, Louisville could be a dark horse to upset TCU and Notre Dame and possibly reach the regional final.
Who Could Bust Brackets?
Ohio State and Maryland had better be ready. Both No. 4 seeds could face tough matchups, as Montana State leads the nation in steals and Norfolk State is a 30-win squad that beat a pair of SEC opponents. Ohio State did take care of the ball well against UCLA, but certainly did not against Maryland with 19 turnovers. Careless decisions with the basketball against the Bobcats will get the Buckeyes beat.
Maryland should have the edge on Norfolk State, but the Spartans have been winning for so long that they should come into this game brimming with confidence. Given how the Terrapins crashed, a slow start could make for some nervous moments for Maryland.
No No. 14 seed has ever won in the women’s tournament, but Stephen F. Austin must be taken seriously. The Ladyjacks rank ninth in the nation in 3-pointers, and if they get hot, Notre Dame’s shaky status could make things interesting.
Which Lower Seeds Could Make a Run?
Tennessee is the toughest team to predict, because the Volunteers could easily get hot, knock off Texas and make their way to the Final Four. They could just as easily lose to South Florida. Tennessee has been the classic high ceiling, low floor squad all year, and the way they’ve played against South Carolina, Texas and Connecticut shows what they’re capable of achieving.
Columbia could also make things interesting. The Lions are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, which could make for a very intriguing matchup against defense-heavy West Virginia. Columbia has to get past Washington first, but if the Lions make it out of the First Four, they’ll be in position to play a grinder with the Mountaineers.
Who Makes the Final Four?
As much as Dawn Staley wants to cry disrespect, the matchups say otherwise. South Carolina is the No. 2 overall seed in name only. The Gamecocks have an ideal path to the Final Four, and it’s going to take a lot for anyone to knock them off.
Texas isn’t quite as fortunate. The Longhorns appear to have a bad matchup waiting for them against Tennessee. The Volunteers are peaking at the right time, and if they get past South Florida, they’re likely to take down Texas in Birmingham. They’ve got a real chance to get back to the Final Four.
