2025 NCAA Men's: Sweet 16 Preview
by Dan Angell | by Tyler Doty
NCAA Men’s Basketball: Revisiting the Regionals
What’s the easiest way to ensure that Cinderella doesn’t break through to the the regionals? Invite all the best mid-majors to power conferences.
For the first time since 2017, no mid-majors have made the Sweet 16. And that’s in part because of the Big 12, which changed the game by raiding the American Conference for Houston and the West Coast Conference for BYU. Both teams have made the regionals, and the rest of the last 16 are all long-time power-conference schools.
The ACC is just barely hanging on, as Duke was the only one to even get out of the first round. The Blue Devils are still a force, but it remains to be seen if Duke still knows how to handle things if it gets challenged by a team on its level. The SEC remains the top dog, as only two out of eight Sweet 16 games — Duke vs. Arizona and Houston vs. Purdue — won’t include at least one SEC school.
Here’s our look at all four of the regionals.
Can Anyone Knock Off Duke in Newark?
If the Blue Devils hadn’t been so dominant in the regular season, this wouldn’t be fair. For years, the running joke in the NCAA tournament was that if you had to play Duke, you wanted to play them in North Carolina, because the Tar Heel fans would buy all of the tickets and unite behind whoever was facing the Blue Devils. You did not want to face Duke in New York or New Jersey, because 1 in 5 Duke students come from those two states, making the Blue Devils an obsession in the Northeast.
And for Arizona, BYU and Alabama, the task is to try to beat Duke in northern New Jersey, the absolute last place in the world you want to play the Blue Devils.
But the good news is that the Blue Devils do have a weakness: they do not force a lot of turnovers. Duke’s game plan is built on making you take your time, attempt to figure things out and eventually take and miss a bad shot. With Cooper Flagg down low, the Blue Devils figure they can get the rebound and run things at the other end.
All three of their opponents in Newark are good shooters, and Arizona and Alabama love to push the pace. That could be Duke’s downfall: if the Blue Devils spend 40 minutes chasing Arizona on Thursday, they might not have anything left for Alabama or BYU on Saturday. Either is a worry, as both shoot well and pose different problems. BYU is just fine playing at Duke’s pace and taking and making 3-pointers, and Alabama is going to force the Blue Devils to run again. As for who wins between the Cougars and the Tide, BYU’s 3-point defense isn’t great, which opens things up for Alabama if its shooters are hitting.
Will Florida’s Depth Carry the Day Out West?
Maryland’s starting five is as good as anyone in the nation, but there’s a drop-off when the Terrapins have to get beyond that quintet. That’s a problem against Florida, because the Gators can wear down just about anyone.
Texas Tech, however, might be the exception. The Red Raiders go nine deep, and all but Federiko Federiko can contribute from outside of 15 feet. The Red Raiders also almost always end their possessions with a shot, which means the Gators have to defend. Even though Maryland is the better defensive team, Florida is probably better equipped to handle Texas Tech on short rest. If the Terrapins make it to Saturday, they’re likely to be drained from playing up-tempo, and while Texas Tech’s defense isn’t as good as past years, the Red Raiders make you figure it out on the fly.
Arkansas has done well to make it this far, but the Razorbacks probably don’t have the shooters to keep up with Texas Tech. As long as the Red Raiders don’t have a bad night taking care of the ball, the matchup favors them.
Does Houston Squeeze the Life Out of the Midwest?
The Cougars did not get the regional they wanted. Not only do they have to play a virtual road game against Purdue in Indianapolis — the Boilermakers did not play well in the Big Ten tournament there, but Houston won’t have anywhere near the crowd Michigan brought — but two of their three opponents handle their pace just fine and love to play grinders.
The biggest concern for the Cougars is Tennessee. The dream matchup for Houston would be Kentucky, the one team left in the region who wants to push the tempo. The Wildcats did beat the Volunteers twice, and they’ll have a large crowd in Indianapolis themselves. (That also won’t help Houston, as the Wildcats’ fans will likely join with the Boilermakers to pull for the easier matchup). But Kentucky also shot the lights out from deep in both meetings, and doing it a third time could be tough.
Tennessee likely has the edge in the regional, as its style is a match for either Houston or Purdue. The Volunteers lost to the Boilers in the regional final last year, but this year, there’s no Zach Edey for Tennessee to worry about.
Is It Still Auburn’s Tournament to Lose?
The Tigers had some nervous moments in the first two rounds, but their defense ultimately carried the day in getting by Alabama State and Creighton. That’s likely going to have to be the strategy again against Michigan, as the Wolverines don’t really match up well offensively. Michigan can win a grinder, which it did against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament, but the Badgers don’t have anyone like Johni Broome.
Auburn does, and that likely means that Michigan’s run is going to end in the round of 16.
If the Tigers get to face Michigan State, don’t expect much outside shooting.
The Tigers and the Spartans both rank in the top five nationally in 3-point defense, and both should lock the other down in the regional final.
If the Tigers do have an Achilles’ heel, it’s that they send teams to the line too often. That won’t hurt them against Michigan and wouldn’t hurt against Mississippi, but Michigan State would really make the Tigers pay. Auburn has more talent and should win playing five on five, but if the Spartans are scoring points while the clock is stopped — or if Johni Broome gets in foul trouble — an upset is possible.
