NCAA Men’s Basketball: Auburn Dealt Tough South Regional
by Dan Angell | by Tyler Doty
If you took a flier on Auburn to win the national title, you had reason to worry on Selection Sunday. The Tigers were given the No. 1 overall seed, which seemed to make sense given how well Auburn played this season. But they were not given a region befitting of a No. 1 overall seed, at least not on paper. Michigan State comes in as the Big Ten regular season champion, even if the Spartans might be slightly overseeded at No. 2. Texas A&M already beat Auburn once and plays a style that can give the Tigers trouble. And then there’s Michigan, which just survived Maryland and Wisconsin to win the Big Ten tournament.
Even beyond the big names, the Tigers might find the South to be a tough test. A second-round matchup with either Louisville or Creighton isn’t something you’d expect a No. 1 seed to face. The Cardinals in particular could pose problems, because they had no issues taking a tie for second place in the ACC as they returned to being a factor.
In short, this isn’t a gift to the top seed. This is a potentially tough test for Auburn, and the Tigers might not have an easy game past the first round. They will get to play relatively close to home in Kentucky and Georgia, but that’s about all for their advantages. Here’s a deep dive into the men’s South Region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
How Far Can Auburn Go?
The Tigers are thinking national championship, even with a tough region. Their biggest competition might be Texas A&M, because the Aggies play a style that’s very physical and can be difficult to match up against. Auburn learned that the hard way when Texas A&M came in on a four-game losing streak and snapped it with an 11-point road victory over the Tigers.
Auburn has the region’s best player in Johni Broome, but he needs to get help from his guards. Only Denver Jones shoots better than 40% from deep, and you absolutely have to shoot 3-pointers to beat Texas A&M.
Who’s Overseeded?
Iowa State’s not a particularly scary No. 3 seed. The Cyclones were struggling down the stretch, and they’re not at full strength with Keshon Gilbert now done for the year. That could be problematic against either Mississippi or North Carolina, as both present their own issues. Without Gilbert, the Cyclones could struggle against the Rebels’ ball pressure, and the Tar Heels can punish teams on the glass.
T.J. Otzelberger has guided Iowa State to the Sweet 16 in two of the past three years, but the Cyclones also had a complete no-show in 2023 as a No. 6 seed. It shouldn’t shock anyone if Iowa State is gone after round 2.
Who’s Underseeded?
Louisville’s No. 8 seed shows how little the committee thought of the ACC this year. The Cardinals were a solid third place in the ACC, and they haven’t lost to anyone outside of the ACC and SEC this season. They did go 0-4 against the SEC, but they also bludgeoned Indiana and beat West Virginia, and their only loss outside the top 50 was at Georgia Tech.
Still, the Cardinals only landed on the No. 8 line when they probably deserved a No. 6. And Auburn’s got another reason to be unhappy about that: the matchup would be in Lexington. While that’s the home court of bitter rival Kentucky, it’s also a mere 75 miles from the Cardinals’ campus.
Who Could Bust Brackets?
Auburn found out last year: Yale’s dangerous. The Bulldogs did lose Danny Wolf to Michigan, but John Poulakidas is still there after scoring 29 points against the Tigers in last year’s first-round upset. What’s more, Yale is physical and knows how to shoot the 3-pointer. Texas A&M is usually a terrible shooting team, but the Aggies make up for it by getting to the foul line and getting offensive rebounds. The way you beat them is by keeping them off the line, limiting them to one shot and hitting your outside shots. Yale can do all of those things.
UC-San Diego could also be a tough out. The Tritons play good defense and force plenty of mistakes. Michigan was far too careless with the ball against Maryland in the Big Ten semifinal. If the Wolverines cough it up 19 times like they did against the Terrapins, they’re out.
Who Wins the Regional?
It’s cliché to pick the favorite, but Auburn has been the country’s best team all season long. The Tigers will be tested on their way to San Antonio, but they have the toughness needed to get through this and should get a favorable matchup in the regionals if Texas A&M and/or Michigan get picked off early. Auburn likely takes all the committee can throw at it and still makes it to the Final Four.
