March Madness: Men's Favorites Face Varying Roads
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
While Auburn faces a rough road to San Antonio, some of the other favorites were a little lucky — and some got an even worse situation than the Tigers.
Houston, for example, probably isn’t thrilled about where it’s going for the regionals. The Cougars didn’t really have a good fit geographically this year, as only one of the four regions was even close to Texas. Of course, the Cougars were never going to go to Atlanta, not with Duke’s dominance of the ACC and the SEC producing so many strong teams.
But they probably would have preferred San Francisco to Indianapolis, given that there are a lot of good Big Ten teams they could be paired with in Indy. Sure enough, they potentially drew one in the Sweet 16, and it’s likely the worst possible option: Purdue, just an hour away from its campus. Conversely, Florida has to go cross-country to San Francisco, but the Gators won’t face a team from west of the Missouri River unless Grand Canyon or Omaha makes it there.
It’s a truth of the tournament: who you play, when, and where has a lot to do with your potential fate. Here’s a deep dive into the rest of the men’s tournament for your NCAA predictions:
How Does the East Regional Break Down?
The answer here depends on the health of Cooper Flagg of Duke. The Blue Devils were able to win the ACC without him, and they shouldn’t need him to get past either American or Mount St. Mary’s. But the second round could be tricky if Flagg isn’t at full strength, as Mississippi State and Baylor are both reasonably dangerous foes.
If Flagg is healthy, Duke probably has the easiest path to the Final Four. Wisconsin is definitely overseeded at a No. 3 (someone has to explain how Michigan beat Wisconsin twice, including the Big Ten final and finished higher in the league, yet ended up two seed lines below the Badgers), and Arizona is probably overseeded at No. 4. Alabama is a deserving No. 2 seed, but the Crimson Tide face a really bad potential matchup in the second round with Saint Mary’s. That game would represent a complete contrast in styles, as Alabama loves to push the pace while Saint Mary’s forces teams to slow down and figure it out. Historically, that kind of contrast has favored the Gaels.
The most dangerous teams in the East to Duke are probably from the western half of the country: BYU and Saint Mary’s could easily be a couple seed lines higher. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if one or both of those teams make it to Newark and square off, with the winner facing the Blue Devils. Oregon could also be a tricky Sweet 16 opponent, although the Ducks’ showing in the Big Ten suggests that the Blue Devils would be solid favorites.
Can Houston Survive the Midwest Regional?
Kelvin Sampson has every reason to gripe about the Cougars’ draw. Houston drew a nightmare from almost the beginning, getting either Gonzaga or Georgia after dispatching Southern Illinois-Edwardsville. Those are two of the biggest high-ceiling, low-floor teams in the field, which is why they’re sitting in the 8/9 game. Gonzaga annihilated Baylor to start the year, but it also managed to lose to Oregon State, while Georgia has been good enough to beat Florida and St. John’s but bad enough to lose to the Gators by 30.
That’s only the start of the Cougars’ potential problems. If the seeds hold, they’d find Purdue waiting for them in Indianapolis. The Boilermakers did go down rather meekly in the Big Ten tournament, but Michigan brought a lot of its fans to Indy too, an advantage that Houston would not have. The regional final is also daunting: few teams love to grind it out the way Houston does more than Tennessee.
In truth, the Volunteers appear to be the best bets to make it out of this region, if they can confront their own demons in the regionals. Tennessee, for whatever reason, could not figure out Kentucky, another high-ceiling, low-floor team. The Wildcats swept the Volunteers this year, yet Tennessee was far more consistent and earned a No. 2 to Kentucky’s No. 3. A third meeting in Indianapolis would again favor the Wildcats, but if the Vols can get past it, they would have the edge in the regional final.
Can Anyone Challenge Florida In the West?
For the No. 4 overall seed, the Gators got treated really well. Maybe it was the committee making up for shipping Florida out to San Francisco (although coach Todd Golden likely didn’t complain, as he used to be the coach at San Francisco), but the Gators got the easier of the two potential No. 2 seeds between Michigan State and St. John’s. While the Red Storm won both the Big East regular season and tournament titles, they have always seemed a fragile No. 2 built on a down Big East rather than their own quality.
Truth be told, Texas Tech appears to be a more worthy No. 2 than St. John’s, and there’s a good chance the Red Raiders will prove that if they make it to San Francisco. Outside of that, Maryland is a good but not great No. 4, Memphis is badly overseeded as a No. 5 and Missouri has a tough first-round matchup with Drake’s incredibly slow pace.
The biggest threat to Florida might come in the second round against Connecticut, if the Huskies can play to their potential. The two-time champions have been very good at times, but they’ve also managed to lose to Seton Hall. There’s no guarantee as to which one is ever going to show up.
Who Could Bust Brackets?
Colorado State is actually expected to beat Memphis according to the metrics. This was the type of seeding error the inclusion of metrics was supposed to prevent, but it’s clear the committee is still fine-tuning. The numbers suggest Memphis should have been around a No. 12 seed, and yet they’re sitting up there at No. 5. This seems to be an upset that’s not really an upset.
VCU would be more of a surprise, given how hot BYU has been. The Rams really force teams to work for everything, and BYU takes its time breaking down defenses. If the Cougars take too long to find a solution, the Rams have plenty of firepower and can build a lead.
Drake also has high potential. The Bulldogs have a coach who’s won at this level in Division II (Ben McCollum) and play at the slowest tempo in Division I. If Missouri gets frustrated by playing a grinder, the Tigers could be bounced quickly.
Which Cinderellas Might Be Fool’s Gold?
McNeese State will draw a lot of attention because of its record. But the Cowboys got here without beating anyone of significance; their best win all year was North Texas. They got in this position a year ago with a gaudy record and got ripped by 21 against Gonzaga. Clemson might be a little closer because the Tigers will be without top ball handler Dillon Hunter, but should still handle McNeese State.
High Point will also get some attention with how Purdue finished the season. But the Panthers are in their first tournament and only played one team in the top 100 all year. They did win the game, beating North Texas, but one high-major opponent in two years isn’t good preparation for last year’s national runner-up.
Who Makes the Final Four?
At least one No. 1 seed isn’t going to make it, and Houston appears to be the most likely to exit. The Cougars have the talent, but drew a nightmare regional and will likely be looking at a road game in the round of 16. That’s a major problem, and it likely means that Tennessee comes out of the Midwest.
Duke is probably safe in the East, as long as Flagg does return in time for the weekend. If he can’t play in the second round or longer, the East is likely the region where a Cinderella story could be found.
The West is the West in name only, as only one team even plays past the Central Time Zone. Texas Tech seems like the right move there. The Red Raiders are the only team to win at Houston, and they have a favorable draw until they get to a potential regional final meeting with Florida. That makes them the best value play in a wide-open region.
