NFL Week 16 Rundown: Playoff Picture Coming Into Focus
by Dan Angell | by Tyler Doty
Week 16 NFL Highlights
We’re down to the final three weeks of the season, and this is when teams enter one of four modes.
- The first option is protective, where teams know they’re going to the playoffs. These teams want to protect what they have, keep players healthy and set themselves up for the games that really matter. This describes a team like the Kansas City Chiefs.
- Option 2 is desperate, where teams aren’t sure if they’re going to the playoffs and are ready to go all-in to try to make that happen. This can lead to some major moves, not all of which will work. That covers the Atlanta Falcons.
- The third option is opportunistic. This is the case for young teams that aren’t heading to the playoffs but want to set themselves up for next season, so they’re still playing hard. The Carolina Panthers fit this perfectly.
- Finally, we have totally disinterested, where the players know the season is lost and they probably won’t be back next season anyway. New York Giants, looking in your direction.
Knowing which teams are in which modes can tell you which games will hold the most meaning. Here’s a look at Week 16 for your NFL predictions.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs and Texans have different goals here. The Chiefs don’t want to tip their hand to the Texans, who they’re lined up to face in round 2 of the playoffs. The Texans, however, want to find out if they can handle the Chiefs, and if they can’t, what they need to work on over the final two weeks of the season.
Houston’s final game is pretty irrelevant, as they face the disinterested Titans.
The Texans would win a tiebreaker with Pittsburgh for the No. 3 seed if they can get there, but that’s a tough ask. (They’d also win a tiebreaker with Buffalo, but given that would require the Bills losing to the Patriots as well as the Jets for the Texans to get there, that requires sheer lunacy.)
Kansas City has far more reason to play cautious, especially with Patrick Mahomes not 100%. The Chiefs are in a tight spot, though. They’re clearly in protective mode, but with Buffalo beating Detroit, they don’t have the top seed locked up. But the Chiefs don’t face a bad team over the final three weeks (their worst opponent is Denver), so they’ve got to dig deep to protect what they have.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
The pressure is on for the Steelers. Pittsburgh has won four straight in Baltimore, and after last week’s loss to Philadelphia, there is no margin for error. A loss here means Pittsburgh would drop into a tie with the Ravens, and while the Steelers hold the tiebreaker, that only holds if they can beat the Chiefs or if the Ravens stumble elsewhere. Baltimore’s final two games are Houston and Cleveland, while Pittsburgh finishes with Cincinnati after facing the Chiefs. Needless to say, the Steelers have every reason to want to end this race now.
The Ravens have been rather inconsistent. Their ceiling is one of the highest in the NFL, as they laid waste to Buffalo, Denver and Tampa Bay. They’ve also managed to lose to Cleveland and Las Vegas, so they simultaneously have one of the lowest floors in the league. These games are always tight battles; the past nine games have all been decided by seven points or less. With so much on the line, this one shouldn’t be any different.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
The Eagles seem to be hitting on all cylinders and now have their sights set firmly on the Lions for the top seed. Washington, meanwhile, is a dichotomy. The Commanders are simultaneously taking both option 1 and option 2, because they want to protect their playoff spot but have to get desperate in order to make it happen.
Lose here, and the Commanders would open the door for both the Seahawks and the Falcons to take their playoff spot.
And this appears a really bad matchup for the Commanders, given how the Eagles shoved them around last time. If you can’t stop Saquon Barkley, you can’t beat the Eagles. And so far, Washington has given no sign that it has the personnel to slow down the Philadelphia running game.
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons
This game is here for one reason: Michael Penix Jr. gets his first start as the Falcons get desperate. If the Eagles beat Washington, Atlanta is mostly in control of its playoff fate. The Falcons would need to beat the Commanders and either have Seattle lose twice or have Washington beat Dallas (the Falcons lose a tiebreaker to the Seahawks, but win a three-team tiebreaker with Seattle if they can bring the Commanders into it), but the other two games are the Giants and Carolina.
New York is totally cooked. The Giants are battling the Raiders for the first overall pick next year, and there’s nothing to suggest they’re capable of competing. This game is instead to tell if Penix is enough of an upgrade over Kirk Cousins to rescue the Falcons’ playoff hopes. It almost goes without saying that if Atlanta does lose, it’s almost certainly finished.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Can the Vikings possibly steal the NFC North? Minnesota has a tough road to hoe to get there, but it’s doable. With the Lions losing to Buffalo and banged up, the division and the No. 1 seed are possible for the Vikings to claim. Not that it’s going to be easy, as Minnesota has to win in Seattle and beat Green Bay at home before beating the Lions in Detroit on the final day.
Seattle looks like it’s in serious trouble.
The rise of the Rams means that the Seahawks have lost their hold on the NFC West and now need Los Angeles to stumble to get a home game. Given that the Seahawks are just 3-5 in Seattle this season, the Seahawks probably want to go on the road anyway. But even that’s a tough ask, because it requires the Seahawks to find two wins out of their final three games. Beating the Bears shouldn’t be an issue, but the other win has to come against either the Vikings or the Rams.
Seattle wasn’t even close to Green Bay last week even before Geno Smith got hurt. Minnesota is even stronger than the Packers, so even with Smith returning, there aren’t a lot of reasons for optimism for the Seahawks.
