CFP Bowl Game Value Plays
by Travis Pulver | by Tyler Doty
Notre Dame vs. Georgia and Ohio State vs. Oregon: the Odds
When the line opened for the Sugar Bowl, Georgia was listed as the favorite at -115, with Notre Dame as the underdog at -105. Georgia is a two-time defending champion that just beat Texas in the SEC title game after their starting quarterback had been knocked out of the game.
With that in mind, it is not hard to understand why 85% of moneyline tickets and 98% of the handle have been on the Bulldogs to beat Notre Dame. If Georgia wins, sportsbooks lose big. So, books change the odds to encourage betting on Notre Dame.
Hence, the shift to -125 for the Bulldogs and +105 for the Fighting Irish.
The percentages are not quite as overwhelming for the Rose Bowl, but the same concept applies. Ohio State’'s moneyline opened at -115, Oregon’s -105. With 63% of moneyline bets and 79% of the handle on the Buckeyes, the odds have shifted to -135 and +115.
But is there Value?
The fact that the odds for each shifted does not make them value plays. For them to have value, the odds offered must be longer than the true odds for it. Ask yourself this question:
Do you have reason to believe Notre Dame has a better than 48.78% chance of winning and that Oregon has a better than 46.51% chance?
Fans haven’t seen Oregon play or heard much about them since the Ducks won the Big Ten title game. But bettors just saw Ohio State dominate a solid Tennessee team in the first round of the CFP, making it easy to think they’ll do the same for the next unlucky team they play.
But Oregon is not just another notch on the belt for the Buckeyes. They have been the No. 1 team in the country for a reason. The opening line is a better depiction of the true odds for this game (both teams had a better than 50% chance to win).
As for Notre Dame vs. Georgia, the Bulldogs have been dominating the headlines and the CFP for the last two seasons. Notre Dame? Not so much. People love to get behind a champion to win, especially a two-time defending champ.
However, this Georgia team will be missing something—a battle-tested, proven quarterback. With Carson Beck out, Georgia is forced to give sophomore Gunner Stockton his first career start against one of the best defenses in the country.
In Conclusion…
People are betting on Georgia and Ohio State for a reason—both of them are excellent teams with a good shot of winning and moving on to the semifinal round. However, Oregon and Notre Dame are also quality teams.
But thanks to recency bias (Ohio State) and all of the media coverage that comes with winning back-to-back national championships, the public has gotten behind Ohio State and Georgia. Does that overwhelming support mean it’s going to be a cakewalk for the Buckeyes or Bulldogs?
Absolutely not. It just means the sportsbooks will take a hit if Ohio State and Georgia win what should be two competitive and entertaining games. That, or anyone who takes advantage of the value plays the public helped create, will enjoy a nice payday.
