Ballon d'Or 2024: Vinicius already the winner?
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Who will be the 2024 Ballon d'Or winner? While the last award was given on October 30, 2023, the official date for the next one is not yet known, but it is expected to be around the same time, at the end of October. Who are the top contenders? Analysis and figures below!
Who are the favorites for the 2024 Ballon d'Or?
Although the odds are not offered in the US, you can see from the average odds recorded by international sportsbooks that two players are the main favorites, with a clear dominance from Real Madrid after the treble by Carlo Ancelotti's men. Indeed, of the top four favorites, three players have worn the white jersey, and the last one, Mbappé, will wear it next season as his transfer was officially announced last night!
Vinicius, logically in the lead
The 23-year-old Brazilian winger had a full season, confirming that he is a world-class player who has been decisive for three years now. After a strong 2021-2022 season, with the famous Champions League victory, Vinicius did not disappoint individually last year either. But this year, despite an injury between November and January, the numbers are there: 15 goals and 5 assists in 26 La Liga matches, 3 goals in the Spanish Super Cup final, and finally, 6 goals and 5 assists in 10 Champions League matches...
With a La Liga title, a Spanish Super Cup, and obviously a Champions League, won last Saturday 2-0 against Dortmund with the second goal scored by him, Vinicius is writing his name into the history books at Santiago Bernabeu and could very well make history by winning the 2024 Ballon d'Or! In any case, he is the clear favorite according to our editorial team, and his performance in the Copa America will be one to watch, as he could further extend his lead over his competitors...
Jude Bellingham, successful transition...
The former Dortmund midfielder signed with Real Madrid last summer. A 100% successful adaptation... While English players did not have a reputation for quickly integrating in Madird, he can be considered the exception. And this term seems appropriate to describe his season! Scoring 19 goals and providing 6 assists in La Liga, he finished as the top scorer for the Madrid club this season. In the Champions League, after playing 11 matches, he accumulated 4 goals and 5 assists! A rapid adaptation is rarely seen in such a young player at a club with so much pressure.
He also led Real's attack at the beginning of the season with Vinicius's injury before refocusing on his overall play and being slightly less decisive in the second half of the season. Nevertheless, he assisted the Brazilian's goal in the final with a decisive pass... If he has a strong Euro, making a significant impact and advancing far in the competition, he could completely reverse the trend and become the top favorite for the 2024 Ballon d'Or!
Kylian Mbappé, the new Madrid player to round out the podium
It seems unlikely that the French international will lift the 2024 Ballon d'Or. Despite winning Ligue 1, the Trophée des Champions, and the Coupe de France, his individual performances in the Champions League (eliminated in the semi-final against Dortmund) in crucial matches do not work in his favor. Indeed, while he scored against Sociedad in the round of 16 and against Barca in the quarter-finals, his two-legged tie against Borussia will not be remembered... Nevertheless, we cannot overlook his 44 goals and 10 assists in all competitions with PSG this season. Moreover, there is still a chance for the French captain, as Euro 2024 could completely revive his prospects!
By delivering a performance similar to the 2022 World Cup (9 goals and a final), the new number 9 of Real Madrid could see his odds decrease and his status as an outsider for the 2024 Ballon d'Or move closer to that of a top favorite... As you can see, this summer's major competition will be interesting to follow, especially since the French and the English are the favorites in our Euro 2024 predictions... Are we heading towards a Bellingham/Mbappé battle to challenge Vinicius?
