2024 ATP Finals: What will the final podium be in Turin?
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Turin Masters: Jannik Sinner assured of top spot after 2024 season
Jannik Sinner has had a very successful 2024 season! And he's the clear favorite in our ATP Finals prediction. Rid of the physical problems that held him back in his early years on the circuit, the Italian has finally been able to let his tennis shine without his body acting up.
Winner of the Australian Open at the start of the season, his first career Grand Slam, the transalpine tennis player surfed on this coronation during the first months of the year, winning 25 of his first 26 matches. On the throne from June 10th, Jannik Sinner never relinquished, winning 7 tournaments over the season, most recently the US Open in New York.
Also winner of the Shanghai Masters 1000 last month, Jannik Sinner will be the favorite going into the ATP Finals, which he will play in front of his home crowd at the Pala Aplitour, and without the pressure of having to fight to keep his place at the top of world tennis.
Zverev vs Alcaraz: Who will be #2?
Behind Jannik Sinner, the top 3 have yet to be determined. Currently ranked #2 at the start of the 2024 ATP Finals, Alexander Zverev is well-placed to finish runner-up to the Italian in the ATP rankings. With a lead of over 500 points over Alcaraz, the German will have a small cushion to maintain his place in the rankings.
But with the 1,500 promised to the winner in the event of a clean sweep of the tournament (1,300 minimum points awarded to the eventual winner), Alexander Zverev will need to reach the final to secure his place behind the Italian. Winner of the Paris Bercy Masters 1000 a few days ago, the German arrives in Italy in fine form and is determined to go all the way in the Alps, a tournament he has won twice before.
Second place will therefore be at stake in a battle between Zverev and Alcaraz.
The draw has placed his opponent for 2nd place in the ATP rankings, Carlos Alcaraz, in the same group. The Spaniard will probably have to win the tournament to give himself the best chance of topping the German.
Winner of the French Open and Wimbledon this season, the world number 3 seemed to be less physically fit at the Paris Bercy Masters 1000, with an elimination in the round of 16 in Paris. But after a fine Asian tour in October (victory in Beijing), Carlos Alcaraz can still believe in his chances, provided Zverev slips up in this tournament.
What are the possible scenarios for second place?
One thing is certain: Alexander Zverev will have his fate in his own hands if he is to retain second place. With a 505-point lead over Carlos Alcaraz, a place in the final will guarantee the German 2nd place in the ATP rankings for 2024. But if Alexander Zverev fails to reach this stage, he'll be at the Spaniard's mercy!
A victory for the Iberian at the Turin Masters, combined with a defeat for the German before the final, would enable the two-time Grand Slam winner to reclaim his position as runner-up in the ATP rankings.
An Alexander Zverev victory in a group stage match against the Spaniard, Casper Ruud or Andrey Rublev will allow Carlos Alcaraz to reach the final at the very least in these ATP Finals.
Scenarios may differ, but we'll have to wait for Alcaraz's match at the Pala Aplitour on Sunday, November 17th!
2024 ATP Finals: What else is at stake?
For the first time since 2001, no member of the famous Big Three (Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic) will be present at the 2024 ATP Finals. The injured Serb has withdrawn for this final event of the season and will lose the points he won last season.
As a result, the Olympic champion will be in danger of remaining in the ATP top 8 ahead of the next Australian Open, should the performances of players such as Casper Ruud or Alex De Minaur (making his Finals debut) prove anything.
Among the final stakes, the spots between 5th and 9th in the world rankings are still to be distributed between Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud, Alex De Minaur, and Andrey Rublev, depending on the results of the first round of head-to-head matchups.
ATP Finals: Group line-ups for the 2024 edition
Ilie Nastase Group:
- Jannik Sinner
- Daniil Medvedev
- Taylor Fritz
- Alex De Minaur
John Newcombe Group:
- Alexander Zverev
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Casper Ruud
- Andrey Rublev
Points distribution during the 2024 ATP Finals
- Victory in a match (1st round): 200 points
- Semi-final victory: 400 points
- Grand Final Winner: 500 points
That's a total of 1,500 points for the eventual winner in the event of a clean sweep of the ATP Finals (600 pts for 3 wins in the first round, 400 pts for the semi-final, and a further 500 pts for the title).
ATP Rankings ahead of the finals
- Jannik Sinner - 11.330 points
- Alexander Zverev - 7.715 points
- Carlos Alcaraz - 7.210 points
- Daniil Medvedev - 5.230 points
- Novak Djokovic (absent) - 5.210 points
- Taylor Fritz - 4.300 points
- Casper Ruud - 3.855 points
- Alex De Minaur - 3.745 points
- Andrey Rublev - 3.720 points
2024 ATP Finals: The winners of the 10 previous editions
- 2023: Novak Djokovic
- 2022: Novak Djokovic
- 2021: Alexander Zverev
- 2020: Daniil Medevdev
- 2019: Stefanos Tsitsipas
- 2018: Alexander Zverev
- 2017: Grigor Dimitrov
- 2016: Andy Murray
- 2015: Novak Djokovic
- 2014: Novak Djokovic
