Is the NBA MVP Destined to be a Two-Horse Race?
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Is the NBA MVP Destined to be a Two-Horse Race?
Three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokić is the clear favorite to win the award in 2024-25 with the major sportsbooks. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is Jokić’s only close rival, with a price of +280 (FanDuel) at the time of writing. No other player is shorter than +700.
Jokić is searching for his fourth MVP award in five seasons. Bill Russell and LeBron James are the only other players to achieve that feat.
Luka Dončić and Giannis Antetokounmpo are tied at +700. Jayson Tatum rounds out the legitimate contenders at +1600, with everyone else at +7500 or longer.
Two Clear Contenders
Sportsbooks seem to think this is a two-horse race between Jokić and Gilgeous-Alexander. As has been the case since the start of the 2020-21 season, Jokić has the strongest statistical case for MVP, and he’s putting up even bigger numbers this time around.
Gilgeous-Alexander has led the Oklahoma City Thunder to a four-game lead in the loss column at the top of the Western Conference. OKC also lost in a surprising NBA Cup Final last night. The former Los Angeles Clippers guard is scoring over 30 points per game efficiently along with 2.9 stocks.
This season’s MVP race could become another referendum on how much team success should matter. The Thunder have a great chance of finishing with the best record in the Association. The Denver Nuggets might be a play-in team.
It is very rare for voters to give the MVP to a player on a team outside the top four in its conference. Jokić won the award on a six seed in 2021-22, but that was very much an exception due to teammates to injuries.
No one can question Jokić’s importance to the Nuggets. Denver would be a lottery team without him.
The same cannot be said for Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder. If it’s the purest sense of ‘value’, Jokić should win MVP again, but that isn’t how voters tend to lean with these awards.
Jokić is the best player in the NBA. He could average a 30-point triple-double. Bettors should be wary of backing him with how the Nuggets are playing.
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30 on a team that could win 60 games. The Thunder are stacked, though, which could be used against him.
Other Possible Candidates
As a result, Dončić and Antetokounmpo are firmly in the mix. Dončić has looked much better since returning from injury, including a 45-point triple-double over the Golden State Warriors on Sunday.
Antetokounmpo is leading the league in scoring. He’s hitting 46% of his long twos on much higher volume than ever before. He’s led the Milwaukee Bucks on a 12-3 run after an awful start, including making the NBA Cup Final.
The Greek Freak hasn’t finished lower than fourth in MVP voting since he won the second of his back-to-back MVPs in 2019-20. If the Bucks manage to place in the top four in the Eastern Conference after how they started the season, the narrative could be behind Antetokounmpo.
Dončić, despite what has been an underwhelming first couple of months by his standards, is averaging 29 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 8.2 assists. His Dallas Mavericks are third in net rating over the last 15 games.
Unlike the Nuggets and Bucks, Dallas is seemingly destined for a top-four seed in their conference.
Tied with the Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies on nine losses, the Mavs are well-placed to take hold of the two seed behind the Thunder.
Both Dončić and Antetokounmpo will have a statistical case for MVP. Dallas will have a good enough record to keep Dončić in the mix, and a weak Eastern Conference should work in Antetokounmpo’s favor.
It’s far too early to call this a two-horse race. There are four legitimate candidates as Christmas nears, even if the quality of his supporting cast rules out Jayson Tatum.
