2/21/25 NCAA Women's Matchups
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
NCAA Women’s Basketball: Heading Toward Home Court
In the women’s tournament, the biggest thing to keep your eye on is the difference between the No. 4 seed line and the No. 5 seed line. That’s because the difference between those two seeds is absolutely massive for two reasons.
The top 16 teams in the women’s NCAA tournament get to play the first two rounds at home, unless there’s a conflict with their home arena because it’s hosting the men’s tournament or otherwise booked. For example, if NC State or Kentucky didn’t have their own home arenas separate from the men, they’d be forced to go on the road because both Raleigh and Lexington are hosts for the men’s tournament. Fortunately for both the Wolfpack and the Wildcats, both women’s teams do have their own buildings, so they don’t have to worry about that.
And while the No. 4 seed gets two games at home, the No. 5 seed both has to travel and faces a much tougher first-round game. The women’s tournament simply doesn’t have the slew of upsets that the men’s tournament does. In the 31 years since the women’s tournament was expanded to 64 teams (now 68), only eight teams seeded No. 4 or better have lost their first round game. Conversely, the No. 5 seeds are just 11-5 in round 1 in the past four tournaments, and one of those was last year’s upset-free edition where the higher seed went 31-1 in round one. Getting on that No. 4 line is simply massive for the women, while it doesn’t mean that much for the men.
Here’s a look at this weekend’s slate for your women's basketball predictions.
West Virginia at TCU
This is as must-win as it gets for the Mountaineers if they want to get off the 5 line and onto the 4. West Virginia also has to do that in the Big 12, as it’s currently in a three-way tie for fourth with Oklahoma State and Utah, and it comes in having won five of its past six games. There are no bad losses on West Virginia’s profile (all road losses in the Big 12 and one to Texas), but they also haven’t beaten any of the league’s best away from Morgantown.
West Virginia has wins over Oklahoma State and Kansas State at home, but the Mountaineers lost at Baylor and have only collected road wins at three of the four worst teams in the league. TCU is a far cry from that. The Frogs are in line for a very high seed and can win the league if they win their final three games. With an inside-out combination of center Sedona Prince and guard Hailey Van Lith, TCU represents a tough matchup for anyone.
Notre Dame at NC State
Both teams faced tough opposition last week, but Notre Dame emerged unscathed and NC State did not. While the Fighting Irish put the squeeze on Duke and put the Blue Devils out of the ACC race, the Wolfpack dropped a heartbreaker to North Carolina. And that leaves State two games back of Notre Dame with little time to recover.
This appears to be Niele Ivey’s best team yet in five years in South Bend. Notre Dame hasn’t lost fewer than two conference games yet under Ivey, but it’s clear that she has built the program back to where Muffet McGraw had it in 2019. And if the Irish win here, they’re highly likely to run the table: State represents the last ranked team Notre Dame will face before the ACC tournament. Put simply, Notre Dame is trying to lock down its No. 1 seed in Raleigh.
UCLA at Iowa
How does UCLA have to recover from its first loss of the season? First, the Bruins had to go through a gritty Michigan State team, and now they’ve got to face an opponent good enough to take on USC and win. Iowa is going to be the team no No. 1 seed wants to see as its potential second-round foe, because the Hawkeyes have one of the biggest variances in the nation.
Iowa is sitting in the 8/9 mess because of a five-game losing streak that saw the Hawkeyes lose to five potential tournament teams by a combined 24 points. The Hawkeyes then responded by saving their season with a six-game surge that saw them beat the Trojans at home for USC’s only Big Ten loss.
LSU at Texas
Suddenly, the SEC title race is open. Texas came up big in handing South Carolina its first loss, and the Longhorns shook off any thoughts of a letdown in handling Kentucky immediately after that. Vic Schaefer’s team is every bit as good as advertised, and when they can win without hitting a single deep shot, that says a lot about how many things they do well.
LSU is right up there with the Longhorns and the Gamecocks, but there’s a sense that the Tigers are the third team behind the big two. The Bayou Bengals have just one loss, but it was South Carolina and there was never a sense Kim Mulkey’s team was going to find a way to win. Beating Tennessee was a solid addition to the resume, but an 11-point win over Missouri before that didn’t really impress anyone. The Tigers need a win here to get off the No. 2 line.
Michigan State at UCLA
USC’s upset of UCLA couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Spartans. Michigan State’s a good team in its own right, but the Spartans were really hoping to catch the Bruins after a win over the Trojans and possibly catch them in a letdown.
No such luck, as UCLA took its first loss on Thursday night against USC. And now Michigan State’s got to fly cross-country for a meeting with a motivated Lauren Betts. The Spartans are in a no-lose situation here, but they’ve probably missed a golden chance to add to their resume and build their seed. Instead, this game likely becomes a measuring stick for what Michigan State needs to do to make noise in the Big Ten tournament.
