2/21/25 NCAA Men’s Basketball: Friday Night Fight
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Top NCAA Men's Matchups
Although college sports realignment has thrown a lot of things into chaos, there’s one area where it’s made a change for the good: Friday night action.
Traditionally, Friday has been one of the slowest nights on the calendar for college basketball, outside of the leagues in the northeast where there isn’t much travel involved. Usually, outside of the Metro Atlantic and the Ivy League, most of the big-name leagues wait until Saturday or Sunday to take to the floor.
But in their never-ending quest to monopolize the airwaves, the Big Ten finally decided to stop leaving Friday night real estate untouched. And in that effort, the league came up with an absolute gem of a Friday night game: Michigan State against Michigan.
It’s hard to overstate just how good of a job Dusty May has done in his first year in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines are now leading the Big Ten, and they’ve got a strong chance to hold that lead and win the Big Ten. Given that Michigan went 3-17 in the league last year and finished last in the Big Ten by four games, May has to be a lock for coach of the year.
Meanwhile, Michigan State appears to be getting back into the fray. The Spartans have won 10 Big Ten titles under Tom Izzo, but haven’t won the league since 2020. And with Izzo quickly running out of time in his career at age 70, it’s fair to wonder how many more chances he’ll have at a league crown. It’s there for the Spartans if they can sweep Michigan, and the path starts on Friday night. Here are our choices for your weekend of NCAA basketball predictions.
Michigan State at Michigan
As good as this rivalry can be, it’s also been somewhat predictable at times. Up until Michigan’s complete collapse last season, all someone had to do was pick the home team and look like a genius. Over the past 10 meetings, the home team is 9-1, with the one loss being Michigan’s defeat last year in Ann Arbor. Otherwise, the Spartans haven’t come particularly close lately, losing their other four trips to Crisler Center by an average of 14 points.
For Michigan State to reverse that, it has to make a living in the paint. The Spartans rank dead last in the Big Ten at 3-point shooting (they’re the only team out of 18 shooting less than 30% from deep), but second in the league in offensive rebounds and first in free throw percentage. The problem with that is that Michigan tends to dominate the glass and doesn’t send teams to the line very often.
Unlike the Spartans, the Wolverines are good 3-point shooters and tend to clean up down low. Michigan wants this game played on the perimeter; Michigan State wants to play at 15 feet and in. Whichever team gets what it wants should win.
Tennessee at Texas A&M
This is how deep the SEC is: these two teams rank in the top 10 in the country, both sit on the No. 2 line for the NCAA tournament and neither has realistic aspirations of winning the SEC. The hard reality is that Auburn is not going to lose the requisite four times needed to let either Tennessee or Texas A&M sneak into the race for the league title. But this represents a chance for a signature win that could make an argument for a No. 1 seed.
There’s no guesswork with a Buzz Williams team. The Aggies will attempt to dominate the glass and get as many putbacks or foul shots as possible. But Tennessee is skilled enough on defense to take that away from the Aggies. The Volunteers lead the nation in defensive field goal percentage, and they really clamp down in the paint. Texas A&M scores because of sheer volume of chances, but there just aren’t that many chances that come against Tennessee. As long as the opponent isn’t Kentucky, which owns Tennessee for some reason, the Vols tend to be a step ahead on defense. This is a team that held Florida to 44 and Auburn to 53. This might be first one to 60 — if either can even get there — wins.
Iowa State at Houston
The best thing for Iowa State to do in this game is view this as no-risk, all-reward. Going to Houston and losing isn’t going to hurt anyone’s resume, especially at this point in the season. If nothing else, at least Iowa State comes in with momentum from a four-game win streak, including a double-digit win at Central Florida. The Cyclones do shoot the 3-pointer well enough to bother Houston, and their quick tempo can take control of the game if the Cougars get out of sorts.
Of course, it takes a lot to get Houston out of sorts. The Cougars are 14-1 in the Big 12 for a reason, and the pressure is on for them. Houston has its eyes on a No. 1 seed not for location purposes, but to avoid having to try to slow down Auburn or Alabama before the Final Four. To get it, Houston probably has to run the table and certainly cannot take a loss at home.
Georgia at Auburn
Take everything said about Iowa State and triple it for Georgia, then add a lot of pressure to try to get in the field at all. The Bulldogs have the hardest assignment in college basketball this week: somehow beat the best team in the nation on its home floor. Florida managed to do it, but the Bulldogs aren’t in the same league as the Gators and have a 30-point loss in Gainesville to prove it.
The 14-2 start seems a world away for Georgia right now. The Dawgs have gone just 2-8 in their past 10 games, and the two wins are South Carolina and LSU at home. Those are easily the two weakest teams in the loaded SEC, and the Dawgs have given no inclinations they can compete with the league’s best outside of Athens. The first meeting was a two-point Auburn escape; the second isn’t likely to be anywhere near that tight. But if Georgia can somehow pull it off, the NCAA tournament is instantly back on the table.
West Virginia at Texas Tech
The situation isn’t much better in Morgantown than it is in Athens. The Mountaineers are hanging on by a thread right now and get exactly who they did not want: Texas Tech refocused after a loss at TCU. West Virginia badly wanted to catch the Red Raiders napping before their showdown with Houston, but Texas Tech’s loss in Fort Worth ended that possibility. Now the shine has come off the Houston game, and the Red Raiders really just want to sweep this two-game set at home.
And with West Virginia losing six of its past nine, the Mountaineers could really be in trouble if they don’t pick up a few wins soon. Normally, a team that beat Kansas in Lawrence doesn’t have to worry, but with the Jayhawks falling apart, that win doesn’t look anywhere near as good as it did in December. West Virginia has to be thinking 20 wins if it wants a bid.
Connecticut at St. John’s
Is this coronation time for St. John’s? The Red Storm have a two-game lead in the Big East and have not lost once in New York this season. And with Butler and Seton Hall left on the slate, a win here likely means that the Red Storm win the Big East for the first time in more than 30 years.
Connecticut would just love to find some level of consistency before March. The Huskies’ past three road games have come against Marquette, Creighton and Seton Hall. Of those three, Connecticut won the two tough ones and found a way to lose in overtime to the Pirates. That’s the reality for Dan Hurley’s group: it has a high ceiling but a very low floor. And that makes Connecticut appointment television, because you never know what will happen.
