What causes odds to fluctuate over time in betting markets?

❓Futures Betting
💡What causes odds fluctuations on Futures Betting markets?
⚽Pre-Match Betting
🏆In-Play Betting

Have you ever wondered what factors affect changes in betting odds for any given market? Many assume it is simply a bookmaker reacting to a significant amount of money being bet on a particular selection and trying to mitigate their risk.

While that can be the case, it is not the sole reason why the odds can fluctuate.This post aims to help you better understand the main reasons why odds can change.

By the end of this post, you will have a comprehensive understanding of the reasons behind odds fluctuations, empowering you in your betting decisions.

But to do this optimally, we need to consider the context of the bet we place.Therefore, we are going to split this article into the three different types of bets most commonly placed:

Futures (or Antepost) Betting
Pre-Match Betting
In-Play (or Live) Betting

Futures Betting

Of all the different types of betting, Futures Betting is the market which probably sees the fewest alterations to the odds.

Futures betting is also called antepost betting, particularly for horse racing bets. As the name suggests, it involves bets on a market that will not be decided until a later date.

Betting on these markets is usually available year-round, with punters able to place their bets weeks, months, or even years in advance in some cases.

Examples of popular futures betting markets include:

Premier League Winner
FA Cup Winner
Champions League Winner
European Championships Winner
World Cup Winner
Leading Goalscorer
BBC Sports Personality of the Year Winner
PFA Player of the Year Winner
Major Horse Race Winners
Ryder Cup Winner
Major Golf Tournament Winners
Tennis Grand Slam Winners
Super Bowl Winner

What causes odds fluctuations on Futures Betting markets?

The odds on selected futures betting markets may change for several reasons. Many of these are contextual to the sport or competition on which the bet has been placed. As such, exploring some of the reasons within the context of the bet made, makes sense.

For example, we will use the Premier League Winner 2024/25 market.

Premier League Winner 2024/25 - Reasons why odds can fluctuate

Some reasons why the odds on a team will change in the Premier League Winner 2024/25 futures market are listed below. We have also indicated in brackets what the effect on the odds is likely to be (whether the odds will increase in value - lengthen, or decrease in value - shorten).

More money being bet on one or more of the teams than expected (shorten).
Less money being bet on a team than expected (lengthen).
A team making what is viewed as a positive personnel decision, such as signing a talented player, appointing a manager with a good reputation, receiving an investment of funds (shorten).
A team making what is viewed as a negative personnel decision, such as selling an important player, losing or sacking a manager and replacing them with someone with a lower reputation or the club having financial uncertainty which may force them to sell players in future (lengthen).
If the odds on key rivals in the market have shortened, then the odds on another rival may lengthen. For example, if the odds on Man City and Arsenal to win the Premier League shorten, the odds on Liverpool, Man United, Tottenham Hotspurs or Chelsea to win may lengthen slightly in response.
A key player becomes injured or suspended for a lengthy period of the forthcoming season (lengthen).

As you can see, depending on the bet made, there may be a number of reasons why a bookmaker will adjust the odds on a futures betting selection.

However, compared to pre-match and in-play betting, the odds on Futures market tend not to fluctuate anywhere near as much as the odds in the other two types of betting.

Pre-Match Betting

Pre-match betting is the betting markets that are made available in the immediate run-up to the event. This can range from about a week before the event in question starts to just a day or two before the event starts.

This is arguably the most common form of betting and it is the type of bets you will find abundantly available with bookmakers (apart from in any Futures or In Play betting sections).

Popular pre-match betting markets include:

Individual race betting on all types of races (horses, F1, greyhounds, swimming, athletics etc.)
Individual match betting on all sports (soccer, rugby, tennis, basketball, American football etc.)

Of course, this includes many different types of bets, including win bets, each-way bets, multiple selection bets (such as accumulators), full-cover bets, full-cover with singles bets, banker bets, forecast and tricast bets, and many more

So why do odds fluctuate in pre-match betting markets? Again, it is easier to illustrate reasons by use of an example in context. This time we are going to use the example of betting on a horse to win a race.

Horse To Win Pre-Match Bet - Reasons why odds can fluctuate

Reasons why the odds on a selection may change in the run-up to the race starting are shown below.

Money in the market being placed on that selection (shorten).
Other horses in the market attracting the majority of the money (lengthen).
How the horse looks in the parade ring before the race (either shorten or lengthen depending on its behaviour, attitude etc.)
Ground and/or weather conditions suiting the horse (shorten) or not suiting the horse (lengthen).
The horse receives a favourable draw (shorten) or unfavourable draw (lengthen) in the stalls for the race.
If the usual jockey cannot ride and is substituted for a back-up (lengthen).
If horses are non-runners and the market is adjusted in response to their absence (shorten or lengthen depending on circumstances).
If a stable or trainer’s runners are in form (shorten) or out of form (lengthen) on that particular day.

Pre-match betting odds can change a great deal, especially in the last hour or so before a sporting event when a significant number of people will start to place their bets.

This is why many bookmakers offer a Best Odds Guarantee option for horse racing, which means that whichever is the higher price of the price taken on the day of the race, or the Starting Price (SP) when the race begins, will be the price the winning bet is paid out at.

In-Play Betting

In-Play or Live betting is the most dynamic form of betting available today. This is the form of betting which sees odds change most frequently, often changing within a few seconds and constantly being updated as the sports event is played out.

You can only bet In-Play when your chosen sports event is taking place. Depending on your bookmaker, they will offer a range of bets for you to bet on based on events within the race or game. The markets offered and the odds available within those markets can and will change, often very quickly.

Given the fast-paced nature of In-Play betting, odds can change for a wide variety of reasons. To explore this, we will use the example of betting In-Play on a Premier League football game between Manchester United and Liverpool.

Man Utd v Liverpool In-Play Betting - Reasons why odds can fluctuate

The key thing to remember with In-Play betting is that this is a reactionary form of wagering. Bookmakers software is set to react to in-game events and adjust the odds on the markets available accordingly.

For example, if Liverpool wins the ball and goes on the attack in the game, the odds on the Next Goal In Play market for Liverpool to score would shorten while the odds on that market for Manchester United would lengthen.

Then if Liverpool’s attack fizzles out and United regain possession and move upfield, the odds on Manchester United scoring next will shorten, while those on Liverpool will lengthen in response.

As such, this means any type of incident or occurrence in the event can impact the odds and even the markets available. Examples of this can include:

A team going on the attack/being forced to defend.
A goal being scored
A player being booked
A player being sent off
A corner being awarded
A free kick being awarded
A penalty being awarded
A substitution being made
A throw in being awarded

With In-Play betting, markets react to the ebb and flow of a sporting event and are often in an almost constant state of change. Therefore, making sure you time your bets at the right time, to get the best odds for your chosen selection, is a fundamental of In-Play betting.