How much to bet on your sports bets?
To ensure proper bankroll management when betting, it’s important to follow a few basic rules. One of those rules is to never bet more than 10% to 12% of your bankroll on a single bet. As a general rule, it’s recommended that an average bet represents between 1.5% and 2.5% of your total bankroll.
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Estimated profitability
The estimated profit indicates the difference between the betting odds that you have forecasted and the actual odds offered by the bookmakers. The greater the difference between the two, the closer the bet becomes to a value bet.
The value bet is a strategy in sports betting in which we look for situations where the odds that we have predicted are higher than what the bookmakers believe. In short, if you think there is a greater chance of an event occurring than the betting sites are showing with their odds, you may have a profitable betting opportunity.
To achieve a favorable estimated profit, it’s essential that you implement a solid analysis and a good understanding of the odds. Betting experts carefully study the teams, players, statistics and any other relevant factor to evaluate the probability of an event occuring. After that they compare the odds offered by the bookmakers, searching for significant discrepancies that would signal a possible value bet.
It’s important to keep in mind that estimated profit and value bet opportunities can vary depending on the bookmaker used and the betting lines available. Therefore, it’s recommended to compare odds on different sites and take advantage of those that present a higher estimated return.
For example, in a football match between Barcelona and Real Madrid, if a bettor estimates that Real Madrid have a 60% chance to win and the bookmaker is offering odds of 2.00 for the victory, this would indicate an estimated profitability of 1.20 (0.60 x 2.00). This means that the bettor considers there is a value bet, and that there is a higher chance that Real Madrid wins the match than what the bookmaker has reflected in its odds.
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The odds of a sports bet
As a general rule, it’s rare to find estimated odds much larger than those of the bookmakers. If it is equal or slightly larger (from 1% to 15%), always mark an identical rule for yourself. Nonetheless, it’s important to keep in mind that:
- Every sports bettor can define their own rules according to their personal profile, but always with a logical application. Here you’ll find some more tips.
- Every bet that you make should not exceed 10 - 12% of your betting bankroll. As a general rule for long term bankroll management, your average bet should fall between 1.5 to 2.5% of your total capital.
- Try to maintain stability in your bets. When you are on a winning run, don’t exorbitantly raise the value of your stake. Likewise, when you are on a losing streak, try to keep a cool head and stable bet amounts.
- Never regret your losing bets, learn from them. If your bets are well-analyzed, you will end up making a profit in the long run.
- Accept that variance can cause certain periods to be negative, but others exceptionally positive. Don’t be completely results oriented.
If, in spite of everything, you do not manage to obtain good results in the long run, you should reconsider continuing to play. It takes an exceptional gambler to keep his wits about him in the face of bad results.
Assume that you are betting on a football match between Manchester City and Liverpool. The bookmaker establishes the odds of a victory for Pep Guardiola’s men at 2.00. After analyzing the encounter and considering the various factors at play, you estimate that the odds of the Citizens winning the match are 60%. In this case, the estimated odds you should look for would be at least equal to or slightly above 1.67 (2.00 divided by 1.2), which represents a profit margin of 20%. If you can find odds close to this value, it’s recommended to follow the established rule and consider placing a bet on it.
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Risk Management
This is a fundamental element when participating in sports betting. It’s important to keep in mind that, although making a profit is the primary objective, there also exists the possibility of suffering losses. Therefore, it is vital to implement strategies to minimize risk and protect our sports betting bankroll.
One of the key aspects in risk management is to establish betting limits. This involves defining a maximum amount of money that you are willing to risk on each bet. Establishing a limit will help you to avoid the temptation of betting large amounts and protect you from potential big losses. A commonly recommended approach is to never bet more than 1% to 2% of your bankroll on one bet. This way, even if you suffer a losing streak, you won’t lose your entire bankroll in just one hit.
Another important strategy in risk management is to diversify your bets. In place of betting all of your capital on one event or market, it’s recommended to distribute your bet in different sporting events or types of bets. This reduces exposure to a single outcome and overall raises the chances of making a profit.
To sum up, risk management in sports betting is essential to protect your bankroll and maximize your chances of long-term success. Establishing betting limits, properly managing your bankroll and diversifying your bets are key strategies that will aid you in reducing risk and achieving a profitable and sustainable betting experience.
Let’s imagine that you are interested in betting on a horse race. You have a bankroll of €500. Following the risk management strategy, you decide not to risk more than 1% of your bankroll on a single bet, which is equivalent to €5. This amount represents your betting limit for this event.
Additionally, to diversify your bets, you decide not to focus only on the horse that is the favorite, but also on the other horses with a good chance of winning. You distribute your bets as follows: €3 on the horse that is the betting favorite and €1 on two of the other horses.
By applying these risk management strategies, you’re protecting your bankroll and avoiding substantial losses. Even if one of the underdog horses wins and you lose your three bets, it will have only lost 1% of your bankroll. This responsible approach allows you to continue to participate in future bets and increases your chances of making a profit in the long run.
In conclusion, when approaching sports betting, it’s crucial to take into account estimated profit, the betting odds and risk management. Identifying value bet opportunities, where the odds in favor exceed the odds offered, can also result in long-term profits. It is important to perform a solid analysis and compare the odds offered by the different bookmakers. Additionally, establishing betting limits and diversifying your bets are key strategies to protect your bankroll and minimize risk.
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