Is betting on shorter odds reliable ?

Some people refuse to bet on shorter odds selections. They will use several reasons for avoiding these bets all of which boil down to meaning what I will win won’t be worth winning.

Unfortunately, this is a gambler's fallacy. And if you are a punter who doesn’t bet on shorter odds options, you are missing out. Not only that, but you could be sabotaging your chances of landing more wins with your bets.

In this post, we will examine why you should definitely bet on shorter-odds options, why they are always worth considering, and what the mindset is of someone who doesn’t think it is worth betting on shorter-priced selections.

What Is The Significance of Shorter-Odds Selections?

Every betting market will have one or more shorter-priced options available. They are significant because these markets, in the bookmakers' minds at least, stand the best chance of winning. In fact, using the odds, it is possible to calculate the chances of a shorter odds selection winning.

For example, an even money bet (1/1 or 2.00) is essentially a 50/50 bet. This means your bet has a theoretical 50% chance of winning. At an odds-on price, the chances of winning increase even further. For example, an odds-on price of 1/3 (1.33) implies a 75% chance of success.

At a very short price, the chances of victory are expected to be even greater. For example, an odds-on price of 1/5 (1.20) has an implied probability of success of 83.3%.

This underlines the fundamental value of shorter-odds selections. Bookmakers generally choose the ones they think are most likely to win. And you should remember that bookmakers take great care when formulating their odds. So their prices are unlikely to be too wide of the mark on many occasions.

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The Key Question For Shorter-Odds Bet - Is It Worth My While Betting On Them?

Since we have explored the significance of shorter-odds selections in sports betting, the next question is vital: Is it worth betting on them? The answer to that is simple. Yes, it is. However, your attitude towards betting, the types of bets you like to make, and the amount you generally place on a bet will affect how potentially valuable it is to you.

Let’s explore these three issues in more detail.

Attitude Towards Betting

Your attitude towards betting is arguably the key factor determining how you view shorter-priced bets. If you are guided by the belief that you prefer smaller stakes but much bigger returns, then short-odds selections will not appeal (unless they are part of a multiple-selection bet, such as an accumulator).

Many punters love this form of betting, and there is indubitably nothing wrong with it. However, it is not the most successful form of betting in generating a consistent return or even scraping into profit.

Alternatively, shorter prices are very important to you if you are someone who prizes a steady inflow of returns and, perhaps, even a small profit over low-risk/high-reward betting options.

People with this attitude are not likely to land winnings hundreds or thousands time greater than their initial stake. However, they are far more likely to win more often and in doing so, generate more returns from their bets.

Types of Bets You Like to Make

Additionally, the types of bets you make will influence how valuable shorter odds selections are to you. For example, single-win-only bets or each-way bets do not offer the best returns for shorter odds selections.

Conversely, if you are someone that likes to place multiple selection bets such as accumulators, system bets, forecast or tricast bets, then shorter odds selections are likely to be a very important part of your betting strategy and selections.

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The Typical Amount You Wager Per Bet

The final thing to consider about a shorter-odds bet is the amount you wager, and this is where the value of shorter-odds betting becomes readily apparent—even for single bets.

Let’s consider the following scenario: Punter A wants to bet on a selection in a horse race that is a 1/2 favourite (1.50).

Now if Punter A only wants to bet £2 on that selection to win, then that would mean he would stand to win just £1 if the bet is a winner. As such, he may not view that as a particularly great return.

Yet, if Punter A changes that bet to £20, then that would mean he would win £10. That is a considerable profit and makes the shorter-odds selection far more appealing. But if Punter A is a higher stakes punter and regularly bets much higher amounts, say £2,000, then a win for this selection would offer him a £1,000 profit. Which is a considerable amount of money for any punter.

So as you can see, the attitude you have towards betting, the type of bets you like to make and the amount you wager per bet as standard all impact how valuable shorter-odds selections will be to you.

The Most Important Thing To Remember About Shorter-Priced Betting

Shorter-priced betting is a hugely important part of any betting strategy. To dismiss backing shorter-priced options as not being ‘value for money’ is completely inaccurate. In truth, these short-priced options offer punters the best value for money over the longer term.

And the simple reason for that is that they are more likely to win more often!

A good way to understand the value of short-priced betting is to compare not the potential returns, but the potential chances of success of a bet.

Sure, that 4/1 chance running in the same race would offer you a much bigger return for your £40 stake (£200). But that 1/4 favourite has an implied probability of winning the race of 80%, which would mean your £40 bet would return you £50.

So would you back the option with a theoretical 80% chance to win £50, or the option which has a theoretical 20% chance to win £200?

There is no doubt which of the options more successful punters would back to keep the odds in their favour!