Basketball Betting Guide: How to Make the Best Basketball Predictions

How to win your basketball bets

Basketball is one of the most prevalent sports in the betting world with a wide list of games in each league and competition. Before making a prediction and placing a bet, it’s important to be aware of some of the different rules, categories and terminology involved in basketball betting. Misunderstanding a points total or a point spread can result in disaster in the form of a losing betslip. What is the number of points per quarter, first half or the full game? Does the overtime period count towards totals and point spreads? What qualifies some of the common stat categories such rebounds and assists? What is a double-double? A triple-double? In this article, we’ll aim to answer these types of questions to improve your knowledge of the game and ultimately assist with your future basketball predictions.

What are the most popular basketball bets?

Basketball bets must be accurate, since many are defined by close margins when taking into account the final score. Furthermore, games do not end in draws meaning there will always be a winner and a loser: this makes betting on the game to go to overtime a potential, albeit extremely rare, prediction (NBA games see roughly 6.3% of games go to OT). One of the draws of betting on basketball is the variety that the betting markets provide. Whether you’re focusing on the points total, the spread, a specific team's performance or a player’s stat line, you won’t be confined in the types of bets you can make.

Points category

Basketball scoring rewards two points for a field goal, three points for a shot from beyond the arc and one point for a free throw. Bookmakers offer various ways to bet on points totals, which we will explore more below.

Total points per team.

This item refers to the total amount of points that each team registers in the entirety of the match, including overtime if needed. Teams incorporate different strategies to most efficiently score when on offense. Some focus on a primarily perimeter game with a high amount of three-pointers, while others might look to use a height advantage or talented big-man to battle in the post. Analyzing the play styles of each team that you are interested in betting on will improve your ability to correctly predict their points potential.

Total points of the match (plus overtime)

It’s no secret that basketball games involve a tremendous amount of scoring. As more leagues and teams focus on the three-pointer combined with a high pace of play, points totals are on an upward trajectory. In the NBA, for example, it’s not uncommon to see games that crack the 230, 240 and even 250 total points mark. Other leagues, such as the Liga Endesa (Spain) and Ligue Nationale de Basket (France), see lower scoring totals.

Total points in the first quarter

A basketball game is divided into four quarters and the duration varies: each quarter is 10 minutes for FIBA and 12 minutes in the NBA (without taking into account timeouts). In that sense, it is possible to predict the number of points that could occur in the first quarter, either overall or by team.

Total points in the first half

In a similar sense to the above, it is worth mentioning that there is also the first half (in basketball there are two halves), which is the combination of the first two quarters before the break. This market values everything that happened in the initial periods and is also a betting option offered by bookmakers, for points totals, spreads and more.

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Player props

Similar to how bettors can analyze how teams play as a whole, the same can be applied to judge the performance of each individual player. Player prop betting is an increasingly popular betting market. An example of a few of the types of bets you can place are:

Points scored

It is viable to bet on the number of points scored by a player during the game, although it is essential to study the situation and all of the potential factors. For example, if Paolo Banchero has scored at least 20 points in three consecutive games and is coming up against one of the league’s worst defenses, it is likely he will continue in his strong vein of form and repeat his prior performances. Player points scored betting is most commonly offered as on over/under on a fixed amount.

Number of three-pointers

On the other hand, the number of three-pointers varies depending on the player in question. You won’t get the same betting lines nor odds if Steph Curry is the target compared to Draymond Green. Players specialize in different aspects of the game, which is then represented in the odds offered by the betting sites.

Assists or rebounds

Other stat categories which are viable betting options include assists and rebounds. An assist is the final pass that leads directly to a basket being scored. These are valid for both two-pointers and three-pointers but note that if a player is fouled and subsequently makes both free throws, an assist will not be awarded to the player who made the pass. A rebound (offensive and defensive) is the immediate recovery of the ball following a missed shot.

Double-double

In basketball there are five measurable categories for players: points, assists, rebounds, steals and blocks. The term "double-double" refers to achieving a figure of 10 in at least two of those areas. Here, the most renowned stars, such as LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Giannis and Jayson Tatum are popular and reliable picks. Along the same lines, a “triple-double” is when a player can achieve at least 10 in three of the above five categories.

Handicap

Another one of the most popular basketball betting markets is the handicap (also referred to as the ‘spread’), which is linked to winning margin between the teams. An advantage or disadvantage can be given to one side depending on the amount of points they score. For example, a strong team playing on their home court against a weaker team could see a -9.5 point spread, meaning that the stronger team will have to win by 10 or more points to cover the spread. This section is very beneficial when there is a confrontation between teams with marked differences in their level as it helps to even the playing field for the punter.

What is the purpose of statistics in basketball betting?

Strategy and team chemistry play a key role in basketball, but they are not the only aspects to consider before locking in your bet. Similar to many other sports in this data-driven age, statistics have a determining value in this discipline, as they mark the tendency of teams and players on the court. In this sense, it is essential to carry out thorough research before making your basketball predictions. This way, you will have a better understanding of the team and individual averages in the measurable statistical categories (points, assists, rebounds, steals and blocks).

As an example, if Miami has hit peaks of 120+ points scored per game, its minimum points total was 98 and it has played three consecutive games with at least 107 points, it is reasonable to determine that the Heat will again surpass the 100-point mark. On the other hand, if the San Antonio Spurs are suffering through a torrid losing streak, capping out at just 95 points over five games it would be expected that they would struggle to eclipse the 90-point mark. All this is done by researching and verifying the team’s number’s in recent games.

Likewise, this statistical approach serves to verify how individual players perform on a night-by-night basis. For example, if Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets) made 7 three-pointers in two consecutive games and usually averages around 2-3: one would certainly look towards backing him in his next game as he is clearly on a hot-streak in his shooting. However, be sure to also analyze the defensive matchup he will come up against. Does his next opponent defend the three-ball well? What is their three-point percentage allowed? Note the likely defensive matchup for Murray as well: will he be covered by one of the league’s top defenders like Dejounte Murray? These are elements that you will want to consider before confirming your bet. The same applies to the other statistical categories as well. Tyrese Haliburton is averaging over 12 assists per game while Domantas Sabonis cleans up the glass with 12.7 rebounds per game. Two players who are very likely to continue their trends. All of this background information can be obtained in SportyTrader's yesterday's results section.

What aspects to consider before placing a bet on basketball?

It’s a good idea to do an overall assessment of both team’s starting fives (their lineups) to get an idea of the type of production that each player is capable of. You’ll want to focus on the performance of the team as a whole (e.g. shooting % , three-point %, points per game, points allowed per game, offensive / defensive rating, etc.) for both when they play home and away. Teams’ performances can often vary dramatically depending on the venue. Then, the individual performance of the star players within the squad comes into play: there are players who stand out for scoring ( doubles or triples), blocks, rebounds or assists.

In this context, it is also vital to take into account whether a player has suffered an injury, since it could significantly diminish the performance of a team. In the case of the NBA, having a tight schedule, the period of absence will be extended for several games. Likewise, the psychological aspect should not be overlooked: some players suffer from personal problems and are not in their best condition. Even if a basketball player has just overcome a physical problem, perhaps, for fear of relapse, he will not risk much in his return.

And finally, statistics should never be left out of the equation, because the numbers serve to measure the overall rhythm of each team and, at the same time, what each athlete is capable of producing on the court. As pointed out above, these figures can be used by all bettors when establishing a prediction: bookmakers base all their betting markets according to these quantifiable characteristics. Knowing and managing them is ideal for success and profit.

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Make an analysis and score your winnings!

In short, basketball betting has its most popular markets in points scored, so it is essential to understand how they are measured (by quarters or times). Following that line, it is important to analyze the previous run of results, as that will help to have a clearer picture of how the team will perform. Likewise, it is always necessary to study the individual statistics of the players: this way it will be clearer to understand their performance in terms of points, assists, blocks, rebounds, turnovers and even fouls. Last but not least, it is necessary to check each team’s injury report before finalizing your be: it’s not uncommon to see a spread (handicap) move 4-5 points if the side is missing an elite type of player who is the heart of the team.

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