Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2024?

The Beginning of a New Era for the Ballon d'Or

For the first time in two decades, neither Lionel Messi nor Cristiano Ronaldo feature on the shortlist of potential winners for this year's Ballon d'Or. The Argentine and Portuguese superstars have battled it out for the award almost exclusively since 2008, with only Luka Modric and Karim Benzema managing to get their hands on the golden orb in 2018 and 2022 respectively. 

Messi won the coveted award for a record-extending eighth time in 2023, while CR7 has the second-most titles with five. Legends of the game Michel Platini, Johan Cruyff and Marco van Basten have each earned world football’s top individual title on three occasions, while Franz Beckenbauer, Ronaldo (R9), Alfredo Di Stefano, Kevin Keegan and Karl-Heinz Rummenigge have each won it twice.

With Messi and Ronaldo out of the running, the race for this year’s award is as hotly contested as any in recent memory. Below, we will take a look at the top 10 players that are bookmakers have made the favourites for the title. 

Bet on the 2024 Ballon d'Or winner

Ballon d'Or 2024: The Outsiders to Win the Crown

10. Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen) 

Few players in the Bundesliga had a better or more memorable season than Bayer Leverkusen’s playmaker Florian Wirtz. The 21-year-old was instrumental in his side's run to a historic league title, scoring 11 goals and assisting 12 in his first full season since sustaining an ACL tear. However, Wirtz is considered a longer shot (150.0 with Unibet) than some on this list mainly because he does not play for one of the biggest clubs in the world and lost the Europa League final to Atalanta. 

9. Toni Kroos (Real Madrid)

There aren’t many players at the top level of football that have quite as impressive a collection of trophies as Toni Kroos. The German has won four La Liga titles, three Bundesliga titles, six Champions League medals and several more club trophies, alongside the FIFA World Cup. Kroos called time on his illustrious career during the summer after a season in which he won La Liga, the Champions League and the Supercopa de Espana, though the Ballon d'Or looks likely to be one award that eludes him. 

8. Phil Foden (Manchester City)

Phil Foden is one of three Manchester City players to make the list, and like Wirtz, he was central to everything positive his club did en route to their fourth consecutive Premier League title. However, there are two major factors playing against the reigning FWA Footballer of the Year winning the Ballon d'Or. First, while the Citizens made history by winning a fourth league title on the bounce, they suffered disappointment in the Champions League and both domestic cups. Secondly, due to the star-studded squad that City possess, Foden often goes under the radar with the likes of Erling Haaland, Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne usually hogging the spotlight. 

7. Erling Haaland (Manchester City)

The second Citizen on the list is Erling Haaland who finished as the runner-up in the voting for the Ballon d'Or winner in 2023. While the Norwegian secured the Golden Boot in the Premier League again last term with 27 goals, the domestic league title was the only piece of silverware his team won last season, which suggests he will likely finish lower in the voting this time around. You can back Haaland to win the 2024 Ballon d'Or at odds of 50.0 at present. 

Ballon d'Or 2024: The Chasing Pack in the Race

6. Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)

At just 16 years old, Lamine Yamal set the world alight last season with his performance in Spain’s Euro 2024 triumph, as he led the competition in assists, including notching up one in the final. Due to Barcelona failing to win La Liga, though, Yamal is fairly unlikely to crack the top five this year, but he should be among the favourites to earn the Golden Boy award as a consolation. 

5. Kylian Mbappe (Paris Saint-Germain)

France’s captain won the Coupe de France and Ligue 1 title for a sixth consecutive time last season, scoring a whopping 27 goals in 29 league games for Les Parisiens before making his dream move to join Real Madrid in the summer. Still, those accolades pale in comparison to some of those that the players higher up this list secured last season, and it is unlikely that Mbappe will be able to outdo his third-place last term in the Ballon d'Or race this time around. Les Bleus' skipper is currently priced at 40.0 to win this year's Ballon d'Or.

4. Lautaro Martinez (Inter Milan)

The 2023-24 season was Lautaro Martinez’s greatest ever, as the Argentine finished as the top-scorer in Serie A, leading Inter Milan to the title, and he also claimed the Golden Boot at the 2024 Copa America for Argentina, helping his nation win the competition. However, given Inter’s exit in the round of 16 in the Champions League, we feel that Martinez will just miss out on a spot in the top three in the voting for this year’s Ballon d'Or 2024, though you can lock in odds of 33.0 for him to cause an upset.

Ballon d'Or 2024: The Favourites to Win the Title 

3. Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid)

Few players have taken to Real Madrid more impressively in their first season than England’s Jude Bellingham. The 20-year-old even outdid Cristiano Ronaldo by winning the Champions League in his first year in the Spanish capital, doing so against none other than his former employers Borussia Dortmund. Of course, the Three Lions losing the Euro 2024 final to Spain is undoubtedly the biggest factor working against Bellingham winning the Ballon d'Or crown, but third place in the race feels like just the start of what we are going to see from him in years to come. 

2. Rodri (Manchester City)

The final Man City star on the list (and probably the most deserving) is Spanish midfielder Rodri. The 28-year-old notched up his fourth Premier League title with the Citizens last season before playing a crucial role in La Roja’s European Championship triumph in Germany, picking up the Player of the Tournament award for his efforts along the way. There is a solid argument to be made that Rodri should be at the top of this list (currently at 6.50) given what he has achieved over the last 12 months, but one player is currently standing head and shoulders above the rest according to the bookmakers. 

1. Vinicius Jr. (Real Madrid)

Standing at the top of the list to win the 2024 Ballon d'Or with odds of 1.20 is none other than Real Madrid’s talisman Vinicius Jr! The Brazilian has developed into a household name over the last few years, and while some may criticise his style and attitude, there is simply no denying his class, as he remains the unquestioned attacking leader in a star-studded Real Madrid squad. Vinicius led Los Blancos to the La Liga title and also scored in the final of the Champions League, setting his side up to claim their 15th continental crown. 

If there is one thing that is working against Real Madrid’s talisman in the race for the Ballon d'Or, it is his performances for his national team, where he has just five goals in 34 caps, and has largely failed to return the Selecao to their glory days, when the likes of R9, Ronaldinho and Roberto Carlos were demolishing all-comers. Still, given his goalscoring exploits, Vinicius is the out-and-out leader for the award this year.

SportyTrader’s Prediction to Win the Ballon d'Or 2024

While Vinicius is widely expected to win the 2024 Ballon d'Or, having scored 24 goals and registered 11 assists in 39 appearances across all competitions for Carlo Ancelotti’s side last term, we feel that there could be a surprise brewing in the final voting. 

Taking nothing away from what the Brazilian superstar achieved last season, but we fancy Manchester City’s Rodri to be crowned the best football player on the planet for 2023-24. The Spaniard’s influence for both club and country last year was unmatched, and while it is easier to choose a player who frequently gets on the scoresheet, the 28-year-old’s ability to command play and dictate the tempo of matches is second to none. Additionally, of the top three in the betting market, Rodri is the only one to have won a trophy with his country in the last year!

Our 2024 Ballon d'Or winner prediction: Rodri (Manchester City)

Ballon d'Or 2024: Top 10 Odds to Win the Award

Vinicius Jr - 1.20

Rodri - 6.50

Jude Bellingham - 16.0

Lautaro Martinez - 33.0

Kylian Mbappe - 40.0

Lamine Yamal - 40.0

Erling Haaland - 50.0

Toni Kroos - 66.0

Phil Foden - 100.0

Florian Wirtz - 150.0

Odds taken from Unibet and Vbet

Check out the latest 2024 Ballon d'Or odds