Bookmakers' Opinions, Latest News: US Presidential Election Predictions
by Devesh Jaganath | by Cydias Aujard
Betting on the US Presidential Elections
With the rapid legalisation of betting, the ongoing popularity of crypto trading, and the recent surge in interest around election odds, there’s a noticeable trend of everyday hobbies such as competitive betting being expanded across different competitions, and the US election is no different.
Bookmakers and betting markets are booming ahead of the 2024 Presidential election cycle and well-known betting platforms like Bet365, Stake and Betway have seen a surge in popularity by allowing users to wager on specific election outcomes.
Betting on the US Presidential Election goes beyond just predicting who will occupy the White House for the next four years. There are also odds available on the Vice President nominees, the winning party, the popular vote, and even which party will win in each of the 50 states.
Bookmaker Odds for the Next US President
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are the two frontrunners in the betting for the 2024 US Presidential Election. With Joe Biden withdrawing from the race, Harris is now the Democratic Presidential Candidate, while Trump represents the Republicans.
Donald Trump (Republican Party)
Donald Trump became the 45th President of the US after defeating Hillary Clinton in 2016, a result that shocked many as Clinton was at one point priced at 1.33 to win the election. After losing to Biden in 2020, Trump is now aiming to become only the second President in history to be elected in two nonconsecutive terms.
Trump currently leads the betting odds for the 2024 Presidential Election, with a 62.18% chance of winning compared to Kamala Harris’s 37.82%. His odds improved on Monday from -182 to -192, while Harris stands at +150. Notably, swing states are steadily moving in the former President's direction, with Trump currently favoured in several key battlegrounds despite national polls showing a close race.
Trump's current betting odds represent the best chance the former president has had since Biden dropped out of the election, while Harris’s odds are the worst she has experienced over the same period.
Popular bookmakers like Stake have installed Trump at odds of 1.53 to be reelected to office.
Bet on Donald Trump to win US Election
Kamala Harris (Democratic Party)
Vice President Kamala Harris, now the official Democratic nominee, is the current underdog but she has gained significant support following Joe Biden’s withdrawal largely thanks to the endorsements of Biden along with other prominent Democratic figures.
Harris’s successful rallies have kept the playing fields relatively level, and while betting odds provide one perspective, traditional polling data paints a very different picture, showing a much closer race despite betting markets heavily leaning toward Trump, especially this week following his recent Las Vegas rally.
According to the BBC, since entering the race at the end of July, Harris (48%) has maintained a slight lead over Trump (47%) in the national polling averages. Harris saw a bounce in her polling numbers in August when she led by almost four percentage points, though that gap has closed over the last two months.
International bookmakers Bet365 and Stake have Harris priced at around 2.70 to become the first female President of the USA.
Bet on Kamala Harris to win US Election
Current Betting Market Odds for the US Election
Here is a look at the latest odds on the most popular betting markets for the 2024 US Presidential Election:
US Presidential Election - Next President
Donald Trump - 1.52
Kamala Harris - 2.70
US Presidential Election - Popular Vote
Kamala Harris - 1.49
Donald Trump - 2.45
Election Winner to Lose Popular Vote
No - 1.54
Yes - 2.30
US Presidential Election 2024 - States Won - Republican
30 States Or More - 2.25
28 - 29 States - 3.45
26 - 27 States - 5.00
24 - 25 States - 7.00
22 - 23 States - 17.00
21 States or Less - 19.00
US Presidential Election 2024 - States Won - Democrat
21 States or Less - 2.05
22 - 23 States - 3.35
24 - 25 States - 4.00
26 - 27 States - 8.50
28 - 29 States - 13.00
30 States Or More - 21.00
US Presidential Election - Winning Party
Republican Party - 1.50
Democratic Party - 2.60
Independent - 201.00
US Presidential Election - Win State
State | Republicans | Democratic |
|---|---|---|
Alabama | 1.02 | 10.00 |
Alaska | 1.02 | 10.00 |
Arizona | 1.30 | 3.20 |
Arkansas | 1.01 | 12.00 |
California | 12.00 | 1.01 |
Colorado | 10.00 | 1.02 |
Connecticut | 12.00 | 1.01 |
Delaware | 12.00 | 1.01 |
Florida | 1.04 | 8.50 |
Georgia | 1.37 | 2.85 |
Hawaii | 12.00 | 1.01 |
Idaho | 1.01 | 12.00 |
Illinois | 12.00 | 1.01 |
Indiana | 1.01 | 12.00 |
Iowa | 1.02 | 10.00 |
Kansas | 1.01 | 12.00 |
Kentucky | 1.01 | 12.00 |
Louisiana | 1.01 | 12.00 |
Maine | 8.00 | 1.05 |
Maryland | 12.00 | 1.01 |
All odds taken from Stake
