UEFA Champions League: Qualification Scenarios Before the Final Two Rounds of the League Phase
by Devesh Jaganath | by Devesh Jaganath
Which Teams Have Secured UCL Qualification?
To recap: With the Champions League now utilising the new “Swiss Model”, the top eight teams during the League Phase will qualify directly to the round of 16, avoiding the playoff round. Teams that finish ninth to 24th enter a round of two-legged playoffs in February with the winners of those ties taking the final eight spots in the last 16. Those who finish 25th to 36th are eliminated from the competition, with no access to the Europa League.
On Tuesday night, Premier League giants Liverpool became the first team to secure advancement from the League Phase, with Mohamed Salah’s 63rd-minute penalty clinching a 1-0 victory over Girona. The victory saw Arne Slot’s side maintain their perfect record in Europe this season, now on six wins from six games (18 points) and marked only the second time that the Reds have won their opening six matches in a continental competition.
Twenty-four hours later, La Liga behemoths Barcelona pulled off a sensational 3-2 victory at Signal Iduna Park against last season’s Champions League runners-up, Borussia Dortmund, with Ferran Torres smashing home the winner for Hansi Flick’s men just five minutes before the final whistle. The victory took Blaugrana to second place in the League Phase standings with 15 points (five wins and one loss).
With only two rounds remaining in the League Phase, the first team below the playoff cutoff, Paris Saint-Germain, can no longer catch Liverpool or Barcelona, meaning that the English and Spanish sides are guaranteed a top-24 finish regardless of their results from here on. Liverpool are now favourites to win the 2024-25 Champions League, priced at 4.00 with Bet365, while Barcelona have drifted to 7.00, though they are still in the top-four according to bookmakers.
Bet on the Champions League winnerWhich Teams Have Been Eliminated from UCL Qualification?
Tuesday night also brought us the first side to be eliminated from the qualification scenario, when RB Leipzig suffered a heart-breaking 3-2 loss to Aston Villa at Red Bull Arena, with Ross Barkley scoring an 85th-minute winner for the Villans. The defeat left Die Roten Bullen without a single point after six games and they will now play out their final two matches in the competition as mere formality.
On Wednesday, two more teams were added to the list of participants who were forced to wave goodbye to their chances of reaching the knockout round: Slovan Bratislava and Young Boys. The Slovak Super Liga and Swiss Super League champions were beaten by Atletico Madrid and Stuttgart 3-1 and 5-1 respectively, and like Leipzig, they remained on zero points, making their final two matches dead-rubber encounters in terms of their qualification scenarios.
SportyTrader’s experts were bang on the money in the last round, tipping over 3.5 goals for both Slovan Bratislava vs Atletico Madrid and Stuttgart vs Young Boys, and you would have raked in a very tasty 2.45 if you followed their additional prediction of Slovan Bratislava to score over 0.5 goals.
If you missed out on these tips, fear not! SportyTrader will be providing their in-depth analysis and Champions League predictions throughout the remainder of the competition.
Bet on the Champions League playoff qualifiersUCL Round of 16 Permutations and Scenarios
Outside of Liverpool and Barcelona, there is still plenty yet to be decided, and here we will take a look at what some of the other of Europe’s elite need to get through to the knockouts:
Arsenal
Arsenal clinched an impressive 3-0 win over Monaco on matchday six which propelled them into third place in the League Phase standings, now leading the line with five other clubs currently on 13 points. The Gunners can still qualify for the playoffs even if they lose to Zagreb in their next match, but a win in that fixture could secure them a last-16 bye if they are four points clear of the team in ninth place. Arsenal are 6.00 to win the Champions League and 3.00 to reach the Final.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa remain in a strong position in the League Phase despite a recent dip in form. The Villans’ victory over RB Leipzig saw them move into the top five in the standings, now one of the five clubs on 13 points. Unai Emery and Co are close to locking in their progression but still have a little bit of work to do with Monaco on the road and Celtic at home over the final two matchdays. Aston Villa are priced at 40.0 to win the title and 1.60 to finish in the top eight of the League Stage.
Manchester City
The final English Premier League representative in the competition is Manchester City, who find themselves in unfamiliar territory, currently enduring a historic slump both domestically and in Europe. Pep Guardiola’s side are sat in 22nd place in the League Phase with just eight points from six matches and facing a tough challenge with PSG and Club Brugge - two sides also fighting for survival - to come over the final two matchdays. The Citizens have drifted to 7.00 to win the Champions League but Erling Haaland is still priced as the favourite to finish as top-scorer at 3.50.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid entered matchday six as the first side above the playoff cutoff in 24th, but managed a crucial victory over Atalanta which saw them move up four places to 20th. Despite a lengthy casualty list, Los Blancos' hopes are still firmly alive for a playoff seed or even a Round of 16 bye, now three points off eighth and set to face RB Salzburg and Brest in the New Year. Carlo Ancelotti’s side are at 6.50 to defend their title and 3.30 to reach the Final.
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich’s dominant victory over Shakhtar Donetsk this week momentarily lifted them into the Champions League’s top eight, though they later slipped to 10th. With 12 points from six games, winning their final two fixtures against Feyenoord and Slovan Bratislava will be essential to securing a Round of 16 bye - anything less could leave the Bavarians facing a nerve-wracking playoff matchup to maintain their Champions League ambitions. You can lock in odds of 7.00 for Vincent Kompany’s men to win the Champions League, while they are at 1.20 to finish in the top eight in the League Phase.
SportyTrader’s Champions League Livescores and Champions League betting odds are available to keep you up to date with all the live action and market movements for the remainder of the competition. Additionally, our football predictions are delivered daily for all the major league and cup competitions worldwide, so be sure to check them out!
