Trials, amount of points, bonuses... the pitfalls to avoid when betting on the Champions Cup this season
by Cydias Aujard | by Cydias Aujard
Rugby: the Champions Cup kicks off this weekend!
The Champions Cup season, which runs from 6 December 2024 to 24 May 2025, features a number of English teams, including Bath Rugby, Northampton Saints, Leicester Tigers, Exeter Chiefs, Saracens and Harlequins. Other big teams such as Leinster, Ulster and Stade Toulousain are also in with a chance.
In short, Europe's most renowned clubs will be battling it out for the coveted title for several months. However, betting on the Champions Cup requires an understanding of the specifics of this competition and an awareness of the pitfalls to avoid in order to be successful.
The Champions Cup: a competition full of trials!
There's no such thing as boredom when it comes to the Rugby Champions Cup. This competition, which could be compared to the Champions League on the footballing side, is not short of action. With 468 tries scored and an average of 7.43 tries per match in the 2023-2024 season, the Champions Cup is by far the most prolific event in this area. Bets on a low number of tries scored in a match should therefore be avoided.
In comparison, the Challenge Cup (the second European Rugby XV Cup) scored just 294 tries last season, an average of 5.76 tries per match. Nor is the Top 14 as spectacular as the Champions Cup. Last season, an average of 5.5 tries were scored per match.
Of the major rugby competitions, the Champions Cup has the most tries scored per match.
Last year, Stade Toulousain (47 tries), Union Bordeaux-Bègles (38), Harlequins (36), Northampton Saints (33) and Leinster Rugby (31) were the teams that flattened the ball behind their opponents' goal line the most times.
As you now know, the Champions Cup is a competition conducive to scoring many tries. Always good to know for your Under/Over tries bets.
An almost unbeatable points average
In the same vein, the number of points scored each year in the Champions Cup is also extremely high. For example, during the 2023-2024 season, there were no fewer than 54.5 points scored on average per duel! This is a far cry from the Challenge Cup (48.1 points/game) or the Top 14 (47.9 points/game).
Here too, Stade Toulousain stood out last season, with a total of 342 points, compared with 258 for Bordeaux, the 2nd highest scoring team in the Champions Cup. If you like betting on total points, then you're in for a treat more than once during the 2024-2025 edition of the tournament.
Bonuses: a strategic factor not to be overlooked
In the Champions Cup, one aspect that is often overlooked by punters is the impact of bonus points. There are two possible types of bonus: the attacking bonus and the defensive bonus.
- The attacking bonus: Any team that scores 4 tries or more in a match gets a bonus point. Teams playing in the group stage and fighting for qualification can sometimes take more risks offensively to ensure they win with a high score.
- The defensive bonus: If a team loses a match by 7 points or less, it gets a defensive bonus point. This bonus can therefore also affect the final score, as a struggling team might concentrate on defence to keep the gap small and get this bonus for a hard-fought qualification.
Bear in mind that these bonuses are cumulative. A win earns 4 points in the Champions Cup, but a team that loses by 7 points or less and scores 4 tries receives 2 points. This plays a part in the calculation of points in group matches. Find out more about how the tournament works on our Champions Cup prediction page.
So if a club is not at all a favourite in a match but only needs one point to qualify, then a bet on the defensive bonus is far from a bad idea. If it's worth the risk, there's no need to hesitate!
Handicap bets are not out of the question
Finally, another well-known type of rugby bet: the handicap bet. It's not the easiest bet to master at first glance, but a few figures will help guide your bets on the 2024-2025 edition of the Champions Cup.
The statistics show that the vast majority of matches end with a difference of more than certain margins. For example, 85% of matches have a margin of at least +2.5 points, while 73% have a margin of more than +4.5 points. In other words, there is a gap of one try or more in ¾ of the matches, which is quite high.
Even larger gaps are still common: 65% of matches have a try difference of more than +7.5 points, and almost half (44% of matches) have a try difference of more than 14 points. For even greater handicaps, 34% of matches exceeded +19.5 points, 23% had a difference of 25 points or more, and 18% had a difference of at least 30 points, which still represents 1 match in 5.
In the Champions Cup, there was a 15-point gap in almost half the games last season, an impressive statistic.
So don't be afraid, and let yourself be tempted by betting on the point spreads in this 30th edition of rugby's Champions Cup!
Home teams: a sure bet
As is often the case in rugby, home-based clubs have a clear advantage. The first European Rugby XV Cup is no exception! In the 2023/2024 Champions Cup, the home team won 68% of the matches, compared with 30% for the away team.
As for the draw, it often concerns 2% to 4% of matches each edition. Although the odds on a draw are often tempting, it should be borne in mind that this only happened twice last season, including the final match (often the closest duel) between Leinster and Stade Toulousain. Not a very interesting bet, then ...
For your 1X2 bets on the 2024-2025 Champions Cup, focus mainly on home wins, especially if you are not familiar with all aspects of this competition.
