Tennis - Rolex Paris Masters: which players have the best chance of qualifying for the ATP Finals?
by Cydias Aujard | by Cydias Aujard
What about the British in Paris?
In the 2024 edition of the Paris Masters 1000, both Jack Draper (22) and Cameron Norrie (28) find themselves in a crucial position to enhance their chances of qualifying for the ATP Finals. This will be Draper’s second appearance in the tournament, while Norrie is making his fourth.
Draper, facing off against Alexander Zverev in the first round, aims to capitalize on a strong recent performance, having reached the quarterfinals in Vienna.
Meanwhile, Norrie, who is set to take on Felix Auger-Aliassime, will be looking to build momentum after a solid showing in Basel, where he made it to the semifinals. Both players know that victories in Paris are essential to secure their spots in the prestigious season-ending tournament, making their matchups pivotal in the race for qualification.
Nadal and Djokovic absent, as in Turin?
Although it is customary to invite a number of French players to this Parisian tournament, this last Masters 1000 of the season could also have invited former Spanish world number 1 Rafael Nadal to bid farewell to his adopted city once again. However, Nadal did not request this, and his last tournament will be the Davis Cup in Malaga next month, which you can find out more about in our tennis predictions.
As far as the stakes of this Masters 1000 are concerned, namely qualification for the ATP Finals at the end of the year, Serbian Novak Djokovic has sprung a surprise in recent days by announcing that he will not be taking part in the Paris tournament! Winner of 7 titles here between 2009 and 2023, the world number 4 will not be defending the title he won last year against Grigor Dimitrov.
This decision, which does not appear to be linked to injury but rather to a much-needed rest, puts his qualification for the Turin Masters in doubt, as his rivals are closing in on him in the rankings... Indeed, with 3910 points and having failed to win a title on the ATP circuit this year, the Serb is only 6th in the Race for Turin, and may yet see the return of Australian Alex De Minaur or American Tommy Paul, who could well push him out of the top 8 if he succeeds in Paris!
Already five players qualified for the ATP Finals?
In Paris, three players are already certain to head to Italy next November and be included in our ATP Finals 2024 prediction: world number 1 Jannik Sinner with 10330 points, who qualified first on 10 August, Spain's Carlos Alcaraz with 6710 points, and Germany's Alexander Zverev with 6545 points!
Behind them, the race is wide open until the 16th of the Race. At last year's ATP Finals, the three players already qualified this year were joined by Novak Djokovic, Holger Rune, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev. Poland's Hubert Hurkcaz was also able to take part in a match following the withdrawal of Greece's Stefanos Tsitsipas in the group stages.
Only 3 players have officially qualified: Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev.
This year, Russian Daniil Medvedev, ranked 4th with 4,820 points, has a strong chance of joining his three other opponents who have already qualified to do better than last year and his semi-final defeat by Italian Jannik Sinner. A quarter-finalist at the Australian Open in early September, the Russian was a semi-finalist in Beijing against Carlos Alcaraz before meeting Jannik Sinner again in the quarter-finals in Shanghai. He should secure his 4th place in this tournament in order to take part in the ATP Finals for the 5th year running, which he won in 2020 against Dominic Thiem.
American Taylor Fritz should also be in the running, as he is in 5th place just 530 points behind Daniil Medvedev. Absent from last year's event, Taylor Fritz should manage to make it to Turin, as he did in 2022 when he was stopped in the semi-finals by Novak Djokovic. A US Open finalist against Jannik Sinner last September, the world number 6 was also a semi-finalist against Novak Djokovic at the Shanghai Masters 1000 in early October!
Places up for grabs!
The final places are then tightly contested between Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev, Alex De Minaur and Tommy Paul. Ranked in this order on points, only a few hundred points separate them.
Casper Ruud, for a start, is currently in 7th place with 3,845 points. Competing in the Swiss tournament in Basel, the Norwegian has suffered a few defeats recently, but managed to string together 3 consecutive wins at the US Open Grand Slam to reach the last 8 against Taylor Fritz. A finalist at the ATP Finals in 2022 against Novak Djokovic, Casper Ruud should be keen to achieve a result this year, especially with the Serb potentially absent.
Russian Andrey Rublev, currently eighth in the Race with 3,620 points, is also in Basel and has just secured his place in the quarter-finals by beating Chilean Alejandro Tabilo. A finalist in Montreal this summer, the Russian was a quarter-finalist in Cincinnati before losing to Grigor Dimitrov in the last eight of the US Open.
Winner of the Madrid and above all Hong Kong tournaments on hard court, Andrey Rublev should easily qualify officially for Turin for the 5th year running. Having progressed beyond the group stages only once in his 4 appearances at the ATP Finals in 2022, he was stopped in the semi-finals by Casper Ruud.
The final tickets should be decided between Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev, Alex De Minaur and Tommy Paul.
The Russian should have all the motivation he needs to win another Masters 1000 title in Paris, having reached the semi-finals last year against Novak Djokovic, and this should enable him to add the points he needs to book his place on the plane to Turin.
Alex De Minaur, meanwhile, is currently 9th in the Race with 3,355 points. Currently in Austria for the ATP 500 tournament in Vienna, the Australian is playing in the last eight against Italy's Flavio Cobolli and, if he manages to reach the quarter-finals, he should easily add 90 points!
If he then reaches the final or wins the title, he should earn between 300 and 500 points. At present, only 555 points separate him from Novak Djokovic, and a place in the ATP Finals in Turin is becoming more and more accessible.
In this Paris Masters 1000, the Australian would also be well advised to reach the final, as this would enable him to win the 600 points needed to secure his place in Turin. A quarter-finalist in last year's Masters 1000 against Andrey Rublev, the Australian should be able to win the points he needs to eject Serb Novak Djokovic from the race for the title.
Is Paul out of the race?
Tommy Paul, 10th in the Race with 3135 points, could also have upset Novak Djokovic's position. But the recent winner of the Stockholm tournament - against Grigor Dimitrov as number 4 seed - is unlikely to win more points than the man with whom he is competing for the last place: Australian Alex De Minaur.
Eliminated in the last eight in Tokyo and Shanghai, the American didn't get past the first round of last year's Rolex Paris Masters, losing to Botic Van De Zandschulp, ranked 67th in the world. Even if he managed to match his performance at the 2022 edition, where he reached the quarter-finals, the American would only see 180 points added to his total, not enough to overtake Alex De Minaur, who is 220 points ahead of him...
We should therefore be treated to an ATP Finals featuring, in addition to Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev, the Russian Daniil Medvedev, the American Taylor Fritz, the Norwegian Casper Ruud, the Russian Andrey Rublev and the Australian surprise: Alex De Minaur, who is expected to overtake Paris 2024 Olympic gold medallist Novak Djokovic!
