Indian Wells: the bets to avoid this year
Indian Wells, the favourite tournament of players... and punters?
For a large number of tennis players and fans alike, the Indian Wells Masters 1000 is the most eagerly awaited and favourite event of the season. In the Californian desert, the world's best players will be there with a single goal in mind: to add their names to the tournament's record books and succeed the two-time title holder, Spain's Carlos Alcaraz. To make Indian Wells your favourite event, here is a non-exhaustive list of bets that we advise you to avoid at all costs when making your Indian Wells previews!
Novak Djokovic and Indian Wells, 8 years without success
The best player of all time (whether you like Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal or not), Novak Djokovic has often felt at home in California, winning five times in his career. But since 2016, the date of his last victory in the United States, the Serb has not shone, between withdrawals due to injury and early eliminations like last season (knocked out in the second round by Italy's Luca Nardi). With just one match under his belt since withdrawing from the Australian Open, the record holder of Grand Slam victories will not be arriving in the best of conditions, and with past results, it's hard to be optimistic for Novak Djokovic.
A very rare final between the top seeds 1 and 2
Seeing the top two players in the rankings in the final has become a rarity in recent years at Indian Wells. To see a title played out between the number 1 and number 2 seeds, you have to go back to 2015 and a fantastic duel between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, won by the Serb. Since then, there have been plenty of upsets in California, and we'd advise you to avoid betting on a dream final!
Indian Wells: loose finals in recent editions
For 3 years now, the finals of the Indian Wells Masters 1000 have not gone down in the tournament's history! Carlos Alcaraz, who beat Daniil Medvedev twice in 2023 and 2024, and Taylor Fritz, who beat Rafael Nadal in 2022, haven't given their opponents a chance in recent years, winning both matches in 2 sets. Could the same happen in 2025?
Suspense-free encounters in California?
Looking back over the last two editions, it's hard to argue that the Indian Wells Masters 1000 has been the tournament where the matches have been the most closely contested. In 2024, only 29.4% of matches went to the 3rd set, while in 2023, just over 25% of matches needed a deciding set to find a winner. These are statistics to ponder before making a prediction on the number of sets or the total number of games played.
Daniil Medvedev, far from a candidate for another Indian Wells final?
An unfortunate finalist in California in 2023 and 2024, Daniil Medvedev has shown that the Californian air suits him just fine! That being the case, betting on a good showing from the Russian in Indian Wells might seem more than credible. Nevertheless, the world No.6 will not be approaching this first Masters 1000 of the season in the same conditions as in previous seasons. A happy father at the start of the year, Daniil Medvedev has been unable to put in his usual physical preparation and is currently paying the price in his performances. The Russian is not performing as well as he should, and with no stand-out performances to his name, he may not carry much weight at the 2025 event, and betting on Daniil Medvedev is definitely not a priority!
Few tie-breaks on Californian soil!
On what are known as fast surfaces, the big servers often have a card to play because of the power of their bets. But at Indian Wells, the statistics show otherwise! In 2023, of the 214 sets played over the 95 matches, only 34 tie-breaks (14.2%) were played, while in 2024, 31 decisive games were played over the entire tournament (15.8%). A fast surface, yes, but not synonymous with tie-breaks at this Masters 1000!
A British tennis player in the quarter-finals?
Jack Draper and Cameron Norrie are the only British candidates still in the running for this tournament, Billy Harris having already been eliminated in qualifying against the American Mmoh. With two players in the top 70, and the young Draper currently ranked 14th in the world, there is still some hope for the future. Having just qualified for the round of 32, he could make a fine entrance and continue his adventure this Friday.
As for Norrie, he faces Italian Luca Nardi in the round of 64 and will be looking for a return to the quarter-finals, a stage he has not reached since the Hong Khong tournament at the very beginning of 2025.
Draper remains Britain's best asset, coming off the back of a final loss to Rublev in Doha just a few days ago.
Could Carlos Alcaraz be invincible in this Masters 1000?
