Boxing Day: the stats you need to know before betting!
by Véronique MASUAKU | by Véronique MASUAKU
Boxing Day: the title at stake?
One thing's for sure: our Premier League prediction could well be decided over the next few days in England... Boxing Day has a major impact on the English Premier League title race, and a back-to-back fixture schedule can take its toll.
While everyone was expecting Manchester City to win the title, we find ourselves in a real 3-way battle between the Liverpool Reds, leaders, the Chelsea Blues, second, and the Arsenal Gunners, third.
With a healthy lead (5 points up with a game in hand), Liverpool could move a step closer to their 20th English league title if they manage the upcoming fixtures between late December and early January. But beware, the schedule is far from easy on paper!
Boxing Day: the fixtures
Below, find the program of the 8 matches that await you this Thursday, December 26, 2024, on the occasion of Boxing Day:
- Manchester City - Everton I 12:30pm
- Newcastle - Aston Villa I 3:00 pm
- Nottingham Forest - Tottenham I 3:00 pm
- Bournemouth - Crystal Palace I 3:00 pm
- Chelsea - Fulham I 3:00 pm
- Southampton - West Ham I 3:00 pm
- Wolverhampton - Manchester United I 5:30pm
- Liverpool - Leicester I 8:00 pm
The following day (Friday 27th) features two extra fixtures: Brighton - Brentford (7:30pm) and Arsenal - Ipswich Town (8:15pm). There will be a break on Saturday before the kick-off of Matchday 19 on Sunday 29th.
Boxing Day: statistics for the last two years
Let's move on to what you're probably most interested in for your sports betting on this Boxing Day 2024, namely the statistics to help you best prepare your future bets. Here are some figures from the last two editions of Boxing Day:
- Home wins: 35%
- Draws: 5%
- Away wins: 60%.
- Average goals: 3.65 goals per game
- Matches with +1.5 goals: 100%
- Matches with +2.5 goals: 85%
- Matches with +3.5 goals: 55%
- Matches with BTTS : 65%
- Matches with + goals in first half: 30%
- Matches with + goals in second half: 45%
- Matches with as many goals in both halves: 25%.
- Most frequent score: 3-1 (30% of matches)
- A player scores 2 goals or more: 25% of matches
Some stats are striking. For example, the home win rate is extremely low, with the visitors winning 6 times out of 10. This may not be the case this year, as the favourites are playing at home (Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal in particular), but watch out for surprises! These figures are there for a reason.
Secondly, the goal average is very high, as are the Overs. Generally speaking, we see goals during Boxing Day, and this has been true for many years now. We're often treated to an exceptional spectacle and, in a season where the numbers are also high (3.03 goals average, 83% of Over 1.5, 60% of Over 2.5 and 35% of Over 3.5), this Boxing Day should be no exception! Offered at attractive odds, these bets are certainly worth a try.
Let's finish off with a few more figures that could provide you with some great odds for your future Premier League bets. Not least, the fact that almost half of all goals are scored in the second half, or that the most frequent scoreline on the last two Boxing Days was 3-1, and that it was validated in 3 out of 10 matches. Finally, the ability of certain players to shine during this event is also worthy of note, and the fact that a player scores at least a brace in a quarter of the matches is a very important figure. Now you're ready to bet on the magnificent Boxing Day that awaits you tomorrow. Happy betting!
