Rugby World Cup 2023: What Predictions for Tonga?
by Steve Ashfield | by Kevin Richard
Rugby World Cup 2023: What Predictions for Tonga?
Only in 1991 have Tonga failed to make the finals of the Rugby World Cup. For the eighth consecutive tournament, they have made it through the qualifying rounds and now head to France for the finals between September 8 and October 28. Making it into the knockout stages for the first time in their history would be a massive achievement. The odds are against them doing that but they have won at least one match in each of their last four appearances in the finals of the Rugby World Cup. With a tough draw ahead of them, should we be backing them to finally reach the knockout stages or at least cause a major surprise? You can check out all the latest prices for the competition on our Rugby World Cup betting odds page.
Tough Draw for Tonga
Tonga are ranked 15th in the latest world rankings but they are going to find it difficult to get out of Pool B. The draw for any competition is always important but for Tonga, they have been given an incredibly difficult pool to play in. Not only do they have to face the defending world champions South Africa but Ireland who won the Six Nations this year. South Africa are ranked fourth in the world at present and Ireland tops the latest list.
Just facing those two countries is a massively difficult task for Tonga. It doesn't get any easier though with Scotland also to be faced. They put in a good display in this year's Six Nations including beating England at Twickenham. The Scottish side are ranked fifth in the world at present. That means Tonga have the unenviable task of facing three of the world's top five ranked sides. Romania are he other country in this pool. They're currently ranked 19th and Tonga's best chance of getting a win in this tournament.
Tonga last beat a Tier 1 nation in 2016 when beating Italy. They have only ever beaten Scotland once and that was achieved 11 years ago. If they are to finish in the top two and make it into the knockout stages for the first time, then they need to put in some of the best performances ever seen by a team from Tonga.
Players such as Sonatane Takulua (their third highest points scorer and most capped player), Steve Mafi. Paul Ngauamo and Leva Fifita all need to be on top form in France. They don't have the most experienced squad though with the majority having played a single number of internationals for their country.
Recent results have been mixed for Tonga with their most recent international beng played earlier this month. That did not go well with them being beaten 36-20 by Fiji. Last year saw Tonga beat Uruguay, Chile and Spain but they are all ranked below them. They will certainly want to see an improvement on their last match against Scotland. They faced them in 2021 and were beaten 60-14. Tonga also lost to Romania that year but did beat them five years ago. They are probably still having nightmares over their 102-0 loss to New Zealand in July 2021. Another loss like that is unlikely in France but they could well concede at least 40 points against each of the top three teams in their pool.
There have been some good wins in the Rugby World Cup though. The 2019 finals actually began with them beating the USA in their opening fixture. Then they only lost to France by two points but suffered heavier defeats against Argentina and England. 2015 produced a win over Namibia and four years before that, they nearly made it out of their pool. They began with wins over France and Japan but then lost by five points to Canada before being soundly beaten by New Zealand. Such heroics don't look likely in 2023 with the final pool match against Romania their only realistic chance of success.
Rugby World Cup 2023 - Tonga's Fixtures
- Saturday 16 September vs Ireland - Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes
- Sunday 24 September vs Scotland - Allianz Riviera, Nice
- Sunday 1 October vs South Africa - Stade Velodrome, Marseille
- Sunday 8 October vs Romania - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille
To keep up to date with all the live action from the Rugby World Cup, go to our dedicated Rugby World Cup Livescore page.
What Bets to Make for Tonga in the 2023 Rugby World Cup?
What bets therefore should we consider making on Tonga for this 2023 Rugby World Cup? Although upsets regularly happen in sport, we are not going to recommend you bet on Tonga to become world champions. They are 501.00 at bet365 to win the tournament and that just about reflects their chances.of success.
How about them winning Pool B? Again, the odds available are large with William Hill offering a price of 81.00 on them finishing top. Just one shock win over either South Africa, Ireland or Scotland would be a great achievement for Tonga, more than one would be a stunning shock. When they take on those three top nations, the best way to bet on Tonga is to choose the handicap market. The odds there will give a bet on them more chanceof success because betting on them to win at level points just isn't going to produce a return.
It's clear that the only time we should be considering a bet on Tonga to win is when they face Romania. This match should decide who finishes bottom of the group with both coming into the game having lost their first three matches. Tonga have beaten Romania twice and could well do so again in this competition. Odds aren't available at present with this game being so far away. We'll update this page when they are online.
