Champions League play-offs: who will qualify according to the bookmakers?
by Cydias Aujard | by Cydias Aujard
Real Madrid vs Manchester City: the competition's king as favourite
It's time for the clash of the C1 play-offs, with two of the favourites in our Champions League predictions. The first leg lived up to all its promises, with a total of 5 goals, and numerous other chances throughout the match, especially for Madrid. However, Real Madrid only won by one goal (2-3), so they will have to make sure of that tomorrow evening. Another win would not only confirm our Real Madrid v Manchester City prediction, but would also guarantee them a place in the last 16.
For the latter, the White House are obviously the bookmakers' big favourites, with operators offering odds of 1.15 on average. The defeat at the Etihad prior to the trip to the Bernabeu has made the Sky Blues' task much more difficult, and they have average odds of 4.40 at sports betting sites to reach the last 16. Another historic night between Real Madrid and Man City?
- Real Madrid have an 86.9% chance of booking their place in the last 16
- Bookmakers give Man City a 23.5% chance of progressing
Bayern Munich vs Celtic: mission impossible for the Scots?
Few experts gave Celtic a chance of eliminating Bayern Munich in the Champions League play-offs. And last week's defeat in Scotland does not help matters for Kasper Schmeichel and his team-mates. Our Bayern Munich - Celtic prediction is that the Bavarians will put on an attacking show.
And the bookmakers are in complete agreement, with the odds on Bayern qualifying at... 1.10 ! In contrast, Celtic's odds are being offered at an average of 12.00 by the operators. It's a tough task for the visitors, and we don't think they'll be able to achieve much at the Allianz Arena.
- Bookmakers give Bayern Munich a 99% chance of qualifying
- Celtic, meanwhile, have just a 10.5% chance of reaching the last 16
Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting Portugal: BVB already qualified?
Wednesday's first match sees a similar encounter to the one discussed above between Bayern Munich and Celtic Glasgow. Having put in a very solid performance in Portugal last week, Dortmund have nine and a half toes in the last 16 thanks to their 3-0 win.
Although our Borussia Dortmund - Sporting Portugal prediction revolves around the competition's top scorer, Serhou Guirassy, we're still suggesting a BVB win in our secondary predictions for this clash.
Let's return to the subject of the odds for qualification, where the bookmakers are unanimous: 1.01 for Borussia, and Sporting who will have to create a real exploit and validate odds of 18.00 on average to qualify for the rest of the tournament.
- Like Bayern, Dortmund have a 99% chance of reaching the last 16
- It's more complicated for Sporting, with a 10.3% chance of qualifying
AC Milan vs Feyenoord: the Rossoneri must turn things around
Let's move on to the match at 6.45pm, which will be very interesting to watch. AC Milan lost the first leg of their play-off in the Netherlands, like Monaco, by the narrowest of margins, and will have to prove our AC Milan - Feyenoord prediction if they are to progress to the last 16.
At home in their San Siro stadium and despite last week's setback, AC remain favourites with the bookmakers, who are offering odds of around 1.55 for qualification, while Feyenoord's are hovering around 2.20. Can you imagine a scenario where the Rossoneri reverse the trend and reach the last 16?
- AC Milan have a 64.5% chance of reaching the last 16
- Feyenoord, meanwhile, have a 45.5% chance of doing just that
Benfica vs Monaco: ASM condemned to a great comeback
Unfortunately, this article begins with some bad news for French football. While Lille have already qualified for the last 16, and PSG did well in the first leg of their play-off, the same cannot be said of Monaco.
While the club has some extenuating circumstances to explain the result of the first leg (0-1 for Benfica), and in particular another highly dubious refereeing decision, the bookmakers have little hope for tonight's second leg (and our Benfica - Monaco prediction will not contradict them).
On average, online sports betting sites are offering odds of 1.10 for Benfica Lisbon to qualify, while the odds for Monaco to qualify are 4.40! That's a huge difference, and according to the bookmakers' odds calculators, it's likely to be a complicated play-off second leg.
- Benfica have a 90% chance of qualifying
- Monaco have just a 22% chance of reaching the last 16
PSG vs Brest: Paris already in the last 16?
In this all-French clash, PSG killed off any suspense in the first leg. By winning 0-3 at Roudourou, hopes of seeing Stade Brestois achieve the feat at the Parc des Princes are extremely slim, if not nil. Indeed, the operators don't even offer odds for a qualifier, whether it's Paris Saint-Germain or Brest.
And the information you'll find in our PSG - Brest prediction doesn't give Brest a chance either. If you even look at the international odds and the bookmakers who offer a wide range of betting options, you'll find some odds: 1.001 for PSG to qualify, and 101.00 for Brest. As you can see, PSG are already in the last 16 for the bookmakers!
- The bookmakers are clear: PSG have a 99.99% chance of qualifying, and Brest a 0.01% chance.
Atalanta Bergamo vs Brugge: Dea favourites!
It's time for the final match of Tuesday night's action, with a clash full of suspense. After losing in Belgium, Atalanta will have to put in a solid performance to confirm our prediction of Atalanta Bergamo v Brugge and book their place in the last 16 of the Champion's League. The online sports betting sites are confident of this, in any case.
With average odds of 1.70 to qualify, the Dea are slight favourites ahead of Club Brugge and their odds of 1.95. In any case, we should be treated to a close contest, as was the case in the first leg, between two teams now well used to Europe and these tense matches.
- According to the bookmakers, Atalanta Bergamo have a 58.8% chance of qualifying
- Club Brugge have a 51.3% chance of reaching the last 16
PSV Eindhoven vs Juventus: a home team feat?
Last match of the evening and of these Champions League play-offs. We finish with another tight match before the return leg, as Juventus won by the slimmest of margins at home to PSV Eindhoven. Anything is still possible for this second meeting (and even the 3rd of the season overall), and the Dutch club will have to create a feat despite a long list of injuries (which you can find in our PSV Eindhoven - Juventus prediction).
With odds of 2.70 for qualification, PSV are logically not the favourites to book their place in the last 16, while the Old Lady's qualification is offered at 1.35 on average at online sports betting sites. Will we be treated to yet another reversal of fortune, as this competition has been doing for many years now, or will logic prevail?
- PSV have a 37% chance of reversing the trend and reaching the last 16
- Juventus, for their part, have a 74% chance of doing so, according to the bookmakers
