Champions League qualification: who should you bet on?
by Cydias Aujard | by Cydias Aujard
The situation on Matchday 7
First of all, it's important to take stock of the situation, with the clubs who have already qualified for the Round of 16 having validated our Champions League forecasts, those who have qualified for the play-offs, and also the clubs who are out of the running and will no longer see the Champion's League this season after tomorrow evening.
Clubs through to the last 16
At present, before the final matchday kicks off, only two clubs have officially qualified for the last 16 of the 24-25 edition of the Champions League, and are guaranteed to avoid the play-offs:
- Liverpool
- FC Barcelona
The Reds are in first place, having won all 7 of their games and conceded just 2 goals in the process. Just behind them, the Catalan club got off to a poor start with a loss at Monaco, before going on to win their next 6 games, crushing Bayern Munich in the process.
Qualified clubs for the play-offs
Just below the qualifiers, the list of teams guaranteed to play in the play-offs is much longer. Here it is:
- Arsenal
- Inter Milan
- Atlético Madrid
- AC Milan
- Atalanta
- Bayer Leverkusen
- Aston Villa
- AS Monaco
- Feyenoord
- LOSC
- Brest
- Borussia Dortmund
- Bayern Munich
- Real Madrid
- Juventus
- Glasgow Celtic
It's worth noting that each of the clubs on this list can still aim to qualify directly for the last 16, as Bayer Leverkusen (8th) are on 13 points while Celtic Glasgow (18th) are on 12! The suspense will make tomorrow night's multiplex even more exciting and historic!
Eliminated clubs
A total of 9 clubs have already been eliminated from the competition and will play nothing in the final match:
- Bologna
- Sparta Prague
- RB Leipzig
- Girona
- Red Star Belgrade
- Sturm Graz
- RB Salzburg
- Slovan Bratislava
- Young Boys
With Bologna's points tally fluctuating between 5 and Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava's 0, it is impossible for them to catch the last play-off qualifier, which is currently Stuttgart (24th) with 10 points.
Our forecasts for the qualifiers for the last 16 and the play-offs in the Champions League
Having taken stock of this season's Champion's League, it's time for what you've probably been waiting for: our analysis and forecasts for the qualifiers for the last 16 and the play-offs.
Who will qualify directly for the last 16?
As a reminder, the clubs ranked from 1st to 8th officially qualify for the last 16. And here's the question on everyone's lips ahead of the final matchday of the Champions League's single group stage: which 6 teams will join Liverpool and Barca in the last 16? Our answer:
- Arsenal (away match against Girona)
- Inter Milan (home match against AS Monaco)
- Atlético Madrid (away match against RB Salzburg)
- AC Milan (away against Dinamo Zagreb)
- Bayer Leverkusen (home against Sparta Prague)
- Aston Villa (home game against Celtic Glasgow)
With all of them having a very affordable fixture list on paper, and most of them playing eliminated teams, it is hard to see how these teams could fail to confirm their superb run and fall apart at the worst possible moment. The only change in the current top 8 is that Aston Villa will take the place of Atalanta Bergamo, who travel to Catalonia to take on Barcelona. A complicated trip to manage, which could cost the Italian club dearly.
Who will qualify for the play-offs?
Qualifying places for the play-offs range from 9th to 24th place. If you look at the list of teams officially qualified for the Champions League play-offs above, you can see that there are only 6 qualifying tickets left to continue the competition next February. The conclusion is simple: only 3 teams outside the play-off places are still in contention for a qualifying ticket, and they must win: Manchester City (25th), Dinamo Zagreb (26th) and Shakhtar Donetsk (27th). So we're in for a great 9-way battle for 6 places.
In our opinion, these are the six clubs who will join the 18 teams already qualified:
- PSV Eindhoven (home match against Liverpool)
- Club Brugge (away match against Manchester City)
- Benfica (away match against Juventus)
- PSG (away against Stuttgart)
- Sporting (home vs Bologna)
- Manchester City (home match against Club Brugge)
Although the top three teams on offer do not have a favourable final match on paper, they will have to limit the damage if they are to have a good goal difference, and will benefit in particular from the duel between Stuttgart and PSG. The loser has a great chance of being eliminated, which should give Manchester City, 2 points behind, the opportunity to slip into the play-offs.
On the other hand, it is hard to see the other two teams, Dinamo Zagreb (home to AC Milan) and Shakhtar Donetsk (away to Dortmund), pulling off an upset and securing their ticket on the final day of the Champions League. But this 8th and final match of the Champions League for the 36 clubs involved will probably still have plenty of surprises in store for us, so don't hesitate to arm yourself as best you can by consulting our forecasts by clicking on the button below. Happy betting to all on these last matches of the Champion's League championship phase!
