Euro2020 (2021): How have the odds changed since the draw?
by Steve Ashfield | by Yunchu Li
Euro 2020: How the odds given by the bookmakers have changed
The draw for Euro 2020 (21) was held towards the end of 2019. At that stage we didn’t even know all the teams that would be in the finals. The play-offs hadn’t taken place at that time. No one imagined that the tournament would be delayed. Now nearly a year and a half after the draw, we are getting closer to the European Championships.
Odds fluctuate a great deal for any event. That has been the case with this competition. Some countries have become considered more likely to win the title, others have fallen out of favour and seen their odds increase. Let’s take a look at which countries have seen changes in their odds
The Most Fancied teams
England still tipped to win
England have been rather steady in the market but some bookmakers are going as low as 9/2 on an English victory. Not a great deal has changed for England this season. They failed to make it to the finals of the Nations League but did get a home win over Belgium. Their World Cup qualifying campaign has got off to a 100% winning start.
Home advantage for key matches will help England. Key players such as Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling and Marcus Rashford continue to play well. Midfield is a strong point with the rise of Phil Foden standing out.
England don’t have too tough a group to get through. Scotland, Croatia and the Czech Republic shouldn’t prevent them from getting through to the knock-out stages. There’s a good chance they can win this tournament but it does look a very open one.
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Turkey Can’t be Ruled Out
Turkey aren’t expected to become European champions but their odds have fallen since the draw. Remember that you can bet on individual matches, winning the group or have an each-way bet on teams. Those are areas in which backing Turkey could produce some winning bets.
They performed well in the Euro 2020 group stages, finishing a close second behind world champions France. They even beat them at home 2-0 and drew the reverse fixture 1-1. Their World Cup qualifying group has gotten off to a good start with an impressive 4-2 home win over the Netherlands and a 3-0 win in Norway. The latter was important as Turkey aren’t always that impressive on their travels.
Their odds have been falling due to their recent good form. In December 2019, they were 100/1 to be European Champions but those odds have now halved.
We won’t have to wait long to see just how good a European championship they can have. They take on Italy in the opening game of the tournament. A win in that match would see their odds shorten even more.
Portugal could successfully defend their title
By the time the draw was made for these championships Portugal held both the European title and the Nations League. Yet they were not among the top seven in the betting to retain their title. Their odds have halved since then with 8/1 the general price on them to again become European champions.
The days of Portugal being called a one-man team are long ago. Alongside Cristiano Ronaldo, there are now great talents such as Bruno Fernandes, Felix, Cancelo, Dias, Jota, Neves and Bernardo Silva. They know how to win major titles so cannot be ruled out.
They do have a difficult draw though in the group stages. Portugal find themselves up against France, Germany and Hungary. It’s possible to finish third and still qualify. Portugal’s task will be to get out of that group and then anything could happen in the knock-out stages. Just imagine how their odds would drop if getting good results against France and Germany?
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Don't Underestimate Denmark
Denmark also know how to win the European Championships. They were 75/1 to win this tournament but are down to 33/1 now. The Danes became European Champions in 1992. They weren’t even supposed to be in it but were added when Yugoslavia were disqualified. It was like being a gate-crasher at a party and winning the raffle.
This time they have qualified in their own right and could well cause some surprises this summer. Although they didn’t qualify for the Nations League finals, they did draw at home to England and then beat the Euro 2020 favourites at Wembley.
Denmark have an experienced squad with nine players having at least 40 caps. They have made an impressive start to their World Cup qualifying campaign with three wins and 14 goals scored.
In the Euro 2020 group stage, they face Belgium, Russia and Finland. Not an easy group but they can certainly qualify. No one will face a knock-out match against the Danes, especially if Kasper Schmeichel shows the form he did in the English FA Cup final.
Drifting in the market
Netherlands Need to Improve their Defending
The Netherlands are back in a major finals after failing to qualify for both the 2016 European Championships and the 2018 World Cup. They have a great record in these championships but the odds on them winning this summer have been rising.
When the draw was made, you could have got odds of 7/1 but they are now out to 12/1. Why has this happened? Well, losing 4-2 to Turkey wasn’t the performance of a team soon to be European champions. September to November of last year saw them go five games without a win, scoring just twice.
Their group isn’t that easy either with matches against Ukraine (who have seen their odds drop from 80/1 to 50/1), Austria (in from 100/1 to 80/1) and North Macedonia who recently beat Germany.
The Netherlands have an experienced set of players. Strikers such as Memphis Depay, Georgino Wijnaldum and Ryan Babel can be relied on for goals. Tightening up at the back would improve their chances of success but there's no Van Dijk for them this summer.
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Italy still a Big Threat
Italy have seen their odds go from 11/1 to 12/1 but opinion is divided on their hopes. Some bookmakers have them at prices lower than 12/1, a couple even as low as 9/1.
Like the Netherlands, Italy missed out on the last World Cup finals but have been doing well in recent years. They haven’t actually lost a match since September 2018 and are unbeaten in 25 games at the time of writing this article. The last six have been won and only in three of their last 15 games has a side scored against them. Italy are in the next Nations League finals and top their World Cup qualifying group. In qualification for this competition, Italy won ten out of ten matches, so why are they drifting in the betting market??
Betting on them to win the title might not be a winner but they could well win a few games in this tournament.
Latest Euro 2020 (2021) Odds
England - 5/1
France - 5/1
Belgium - 6/1
Germany - 7/1
Spain - 7/1
Portugal - 8/1
Italy - 11/1
Netherlands - 12/1
Denmark - 33/1
Turkey - 50/1
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