UFC 196: Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz

Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz: Stakes

Nate Diaz can crack the ‘red panties out’. This fight has come together to the huge benefit of MMA fans caused by the broken foot to Rafael Dos Anjos in the lead up to UFC 196. Although the superfight is not taking place but Diaz has always been a fan favourite since he won the Ultimate Fighter 5. Due to the short notice the two have agreed on competing at 170lbs. Nonetheless much remains at stake, notwithstanding the amount of money and bragging rights to be claimed by the winner. McGregor’s hype train would continue steaming on whilst Diaz would pick up a huge gammit of momentum with a victory over the biggest draw in the UFC at present.

Prediction : Conor McGregor by Unanimous Decision

Fight of the night 6 times for Diaz. He rests 3rd highest on 12 post-fight bonuses. An exciting combatant whatever occurs.

Conor has the most consecutive performance of the night awards (5). It’s going to be a fight fan’s dream spectacle.

The biggest question is over Diaz’s fitness. Being called on short notice and needing to come in above 155lbs in the contract negotiations means that he was not in the top shape he normally is. However his cardio, as McGregor’s, will not be hurt so much by the weight cut as it is practically non-existant here. However his chin, even though solid up until this point, needs to be questioned due to his high octane sparring and the risks he takes in fights as he plods towards opponents. The Dublinber’s power , speed and accuracy must be considered in that equation.

The question over Conor is also preparation. He was preparing for a shorter, more powerful, Muay-Thai striker with a strong wrestling game and heavy top-game. Nat is compleztely different from RDA although both fight southpaw. Conor says he’s ready for any type of game, so we’ll see.

Both are southpaws, whom in boxing range use similar styles to get opponents into corners and spaces they would like them to be. Here though we could see McGregor concede the boxing rnage due to Nate’s reach, height and boxing ability. Not only that but the confidence Conor has in his countering and moving will allow him to work more effectively and score more points than Diaz. Nate’s front leg, being leaned on heavily is always open for attack, although leg kicks have not been a weapon of choice of Conor. McGregor will find this opponent difficult to use his whole arsenal of kicks on, due to Diaz’s pedigree in the cage and stature.

• Over 4.5 rounds –
• McGregor by KO/TKO Submission or Disqualification –
• Diaz wins 4th Round –

Form

There are not many more ways to win as emphatically as Conor did when he KO’d long-reigning Featherweight champion Jose Aldo in 13 seconds. Not even McGregor thought he would be victorious that quickly. Conor has only gone to decision once in his pro MMA career. His finishing rate is quite incredible (89% KO/TKO).

Nate Diaz is coming off a unanimous decision win against Micahel Johnson. Diaz looked excellent in that fight. Trash talking as usual, the Stockton native out-pointed and did a lot of damaged to Johnson whom is a highly touted talent in the Lightweight roster.

Advantages and Disadvantages

Striking

Both are very experienced in the striking department. Both have around the same reach (Diaz has two more inches in reach) but Nate Diaz is 5 inches taller. Therefore McGregor will have to work harder than he is used to in live competition to hit Diaz. Surely he will often be sparring with people taller than himself. Conor is a striker that can effectively lead and counter. We see Diaz leading most of the time. Overall Conor evades more shots due to his ability to move laterally. Diaz has exceptional upper body feints but is less mobile with his legs, preferring to walk forward as he usually has reach on his opponents. Diaz punches in huge volume (4th in UFC history for significant strikes landed).

The Irishman has more power in his double strikes evidenced by holding most KO’s in the FW division (6) whereas Nate likes to set up power shots after 3 or 4 punch combinations. Both like to set up combos on the fence. It will be interesting to see who will give up the centre of the Octagon but it will likely be Conor due to his ability to counter punch. Both will set up strikes with classic MMA southpaw taunts: holding the opponents lead hand, even pushing it aside to open up left straight and right hooks. Conor’s left straight is the one to be feared early on. The uppercut could be there for Diaz if Conor hunches down.

Regarding kicks, McGregor is well versed in Taekwondo and Karate techniques. He will use these to back up opponents into spots he would like them to be. Kicks such as bicycle kicks, the front snap kick and more usefully against a taller opponent such as Diaz, back kicks and wheel kicks. These will negate the problems a southpaw can have in boxing range. Diaz doesn’t seem to possess these. McGregor will be able to control more ranges than Diaz and thus score more points from the outside by using the various kicking ranges.

Grappling

Nate Diaz is 3rd highest in UFC history for submission attempts (23). Him and his brother are products of Cesar Gracie Jiu Jitsu, training with the likes of Kron Gracie. As a result their submission game is to be envied. On the other hand Conor simply doesn’t look to take down opponents, pass guard (except vs Holloway), or submit them. Whether it’s in his arsenal or not, audiences can’t be sure. However if there is a slight blueprint to beating Conor it is in the grappling realm. Chad Mendes presented that.

Without a full camp, similarly to Diaz, Mendes was able to take the fight to the ground on which he was able to dominate. Diaz is not the wrestler that Mendes is. In saying that Diaz has faced four tough Welterweight opponents in Rory Markham, Marcus Davis, Dong Hyun Kim and Rory Macdonald. The first two he beat. The latter two rest in the upper echelons of the division and are big, cutting down to 170lbs. Diaz was able to take Macdonald down at least once. Normally opponents take Diaz to the ground because they are not a fan of being ‘Stockton-slapped’ beside the cage. Therein they enter his jiu-jitsu mastery. Nate also has 5 submission of the nights to his name.

The fight is not likley to go to the ground, both favour striking. However if it was to go to the ground Nate would have the advantage, a clear one. It is highly irregular to see either fighter attempting takedowns but it could occur as a result of a knockdown. Conor will not stay in Nate’s highly dangerous guard for too long. The American’s longer limbs will aid significantly in sweeps and sub attempts.

Endurance

In terms of endurance Nate has the 5 round pedigree. He trains for triathlons with his brother Nick. Triathletes are some of the fittest competitiors on the planet. The big question mark is has he been training at the intensity necessary? It is doubtful, otherwise his team would not have needed the fight to be higher than 155lbs. Nonetheless we have hardly ever seen Conor go past the first and second rounds (again Holloway is the only fighter take him into 15 minutes). Even in lighter training one can assume that Diaz will have the better endurance and would like to drag this fight into the 3rd round and onwards. Using less of a kicking game means he expends less energy. That also goes for moving less laterally, less circling and also not putting as much power into his punches as McGregor.