Rodri Injury: A Potential Season-Changing Blow for Manchester City
by Devesh Jaganath | by Yunchu Li
What Happened to Man City Midfielder Rodri?
After lifting the European Championship with Spain during the summer break, Rodri had a staggered start to the season having featured in almost every minute for Luis de la Fuente side in Germany. The Spaniard missed the Citizens’ Community Shield victory over Manchester United at the start of the term and was not included in Pep Guardiola’s matchday squads until the opening round of the Champions League where they faced Inter Milan.
In just his second start of the season, against Premier League rivals Arsenal last weekend, Rodri was right in the thick of the action from virtually the first minute and took his first knock of the match right at the onset from a heavy collision with Kai Havertz that sent him to the deck clutching his face. Unfortunately, for City fans, while the Sky Blues number 16 managed to continue after that early wake-up call, he would only last 16 minutes in the match before catastrophe struck.
Following a corner kick, Rodri went down again after an innocuous clash with Thomas Partey near the deadball line. At first glance, the midfielder appeared to have jarred his knee and after a fairly lengthy stoppage and some on-field treatment, he managed to hobble off the pitch with the assistance of the club’s medics. Overnight, Rodri was jetted off to Barcelona to be assessed and reports emerged suggesting that the Spain international has sustained an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury, though tests are still ongoing to determine the exact duration that he is expected to remain sidelined.
Ahead of their midweek EFL Cup tie against Watford, Guardiola confirmed that Rodri “will be out for a while”, but the manager stopped short of admitting whether the Euro-winner has been ruled out for the season. Guardiola said: "We are still waiting for the decision of the doctors exactly what he has. When we know it, the club or myself will announce it. He will be out for a little while."
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How Might Rodri’s Injury Affect Manchester City’s Title Hopes?
To illustrate just how important Rodri is to Man City, we can take a look at some of the stats relating to his influence on the performance of the Premier League champions. Perhaps the most glaring stat is that City’s linchpin started more matches (50) than any of his teammates across 2023-24 and also notched up the most playing minutes (4,325).
Since arriving in Manchester, Rodri has only missed 21 of the Citizens' last 195 games across all competitions. Here’s how the side fare with and without their key midfielder:
| Metric | With Rodri | Without Rodri |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 174 | 21 |
| Wins | 129 | 13 |
| Draws | 26 | 1 |
| Losses | 19 | 7 |
| Win Rate % | 74.10% | 61.90% |
| Loss Rate % | 10.90% | 33.30% |
| Points | 413 | 40 |
| Points per Game | 2.37 | 1.9 |
The above quite clearly illustrates that Man City are a weaker side without Rodri, with the side losing a third of their matches when he is not in the team. Their average points per game without the Spaniard of 1.9 means that City would be projected to finish on 76 points this season at the same rate, 15 below their 91-point tally from the 2023-24 campaign.
However, it’s not just in attack that Rodri influences games. At the time of his withdrawal against the Gunners, Man City were up 1-0, but that lead lasted only 43 seconds after he exited the field and the Citizens were down 2-1 by the interval.
While City fared well without Rodri in their first three games against Chelsea, Ipswich and West Ham this season, significantly more difficult encounters are on the horizon, starting with a very tricky trip to St James’ Park to face Newcastle United this weekend.
Check out the latest Newcastle vs Manchester City odds following Rodri’s confirmed absence.
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How Have the Bookmakers’ Reacted to Rodri’s Injury?
Somewhat unsurprisingly, following Guardiola’s confirmation that Rodri is set for a spell on the sidelines, there was significant movement in the latest Premier League betting odds, with bookies bringing Arsenal storming back into the title race equation.
At the time of writing, Bet365 still have Man City as the favourites to win the Premier League but by a very slender margin, priced at 2.37, while the Gunners have now shortened to 2.50, and Liverpool are now showing up as a 6/1 shot to claim the title in Arne Slot’s first season at Anfield.
Aside from the Premier League, odds for Rodri to win the Ballon d’Or, have also drifted significantly, with the Spaniard now showing up at 4.0 with Betway, while Vinicius Junior has shortened to just 1.5 to claim the coveted award.
One market that we undoubtedly suggest keeping a very close eye on is the Champions League betting odds. Indeed, since the news broke that Rodri is ruled out for the foreseeable future, Manchester City have dropped to third-favourite to win the ‘League Phase’ of the Champions League, with leading bookmakers such as Bet365, William Hill and Dafabet now making Real Madrid the clear frontrunners at 3.50 and Bayern Munich next best at 4.50, while Man City are now priced at 5.0 and higher.
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