Football: our forecast for the European Golden Boot 2024-2025
by Cydias Aujard | by Cydias Aujard
Golden Boot: how are goals counted?
Before getting down to analysing the main contenders for this trophy and offering our forecasts, it's important to remember that this trophy only takes into account goals scored in the league, and that the calculation used to decide the winner is a special one.
A goal scored with FC Porto does not have the same value as a goal scored with Real Madrid or Manchester United. Since 1997, goals have been counted as follows:
- The top 5 leagues in the UEFA rankings are multiplied by 2
- Those between 6th and 22nd in the ranking are multiplied by 1.5
- All the leagues below have a factor of 1
This year, 1 goal scored by players playing in the Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, Bundesliga or Ligue 1 will therefore count as 2 goals. A goal scored in the Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium, Turkey, Scotland or Sweden will be counted as 1.5. And 1 goal scored in Hungary, Romania, Kosovo or Wales will be counted as 1.
A system that does not benefit players who are not in the European top 5. Last year, for example, Harry Kane finished as top scorer with 36 goals, while Viktor Gyökeres finished 10th despite scoring 29 goals (43.5 points in total).
He finished behind the likes of Cole Palmer and Alexander Sørloth, who scored ‘only’ 22 and 23 goals respectively, but doubled their total. In terms of goals scored, the Swedish international should have finished second, not 10th! This system of calculations should therefore be taken into account when making your forecasts.
Golden Boot 2025: our list of contenders
After Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo dominated the ranking, there has been more diversity in recent seasons. Robert Lewandowski won it twice, before Erling Haaland and then Harry Kane got their hands on the trophy.
For 2024-2025, here is our list of potential contenders:
- Harry Kane (Bayern Munich)
- Robert Lewandowski (FC Barcelona)
- Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)
- Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
- Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
- Viktor Gyökeres (Sporting Portugal)
All playing in the top 5 leagues (with the exception of Viktor Gyökeres), these strikers all have the chance to see every goal scored doubled. A considerable advantage in the quest for the honorary title of top scorer of the year.
To a lesser extent, Jonathan David (LOSC), Marcus Thuram (Inter Milan) and Mateo Retegui (Atalanta) are also worth keeping an eye on. Now that you have the names to keep an eye on in mind, let's take a look at our forecasts below.
Golden Boot 2025: our forecast for the winner
As was the case last year, we can well imagine England striker and captain Harry Kane winning the Golden Boot. Even if he is slightly behind his main rivals (he currently has 14 goals while Salah has 18 and Lewandowski 16, for example), he has the advantages of playing in a team that dominates its league by a large margin and scores a lot of goals every weekend, as well as playing in a league renowned for its attacking style of play.
After scoring 36 goals in 32 Bundesliga games last year, he has already racked up 14 goals in just 13 games for the 2024-2025 campaign. He is therefore following in the footsteps of his exploits last season, and is Bayern Munich's true finisher.
He is always well supported by the likes of Jamal Musiala, Kingsley Coman, Serge Gnabry, Michael Olise and Leroy Sané. He can also take advantage of the excellent balls provided by Joshua Kimmich, who has already provided 4 assists in the Bundesliga this season.
Our forecast for the 2024-2025 Golden Boot winner: Harry Kane takes the trophy!
