What are the English team's chances of winning the Champions League this season?
by Devesh Jaganath | by Devesh Jaganath
Now operating under the brand new “Swiss Model” format, many fans and football lovers, in general, have been crunching the numbers and drawing up potential permutations around how many points their team will need to qualify for the knockout round of this season’s Champions League.
According to Opta, out of 50,000 separate simulations, 98% of the results revealed that the magical number to secure a top-eight finish in the ‘League Phase’ is 16 points! In simpler terms, five wins and a draw or four wins and four draws will be enough to guarantee a side's progress to the first knockout round of the competition.
Don’t forget, SportyTrader’s European football experts will be providing in-depth Champions League predictions throughout the competition which you can access free of charge right here!
Liverpool Given the Hardest Draw of English Teams
As per the Champions League 2024-25 Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR), Liverpool have been handed the toughest route to qualify for the knockouts of the four English Premier League representatives in the competition, and the third-most difficult overall, with an opponent average rating of 91.9.
However, the Reds kicked off their campaign in fine style, coming from an early goal down to beat AC Milan 3-1 at the San Siro on the opening night of the competition proper. The Merseysider’s next two games include a home game against Bologna and a trip to Germany to face RB Leipzig - both matches they will fancy their chances of winning.
Indeed, six points from the next two games will be crucial for Arne Slot’s side, as the Reds are then scheduled to welcome Xabi Alonso’s Bundesliga champions Bayern Leverkusen to Anfield before heading to the Santiago Bernabeu to face La Liga winners Real Madrid in week four and five respectively. If the Reds win their matches against Bologna and Leipzig, we fancy they will be able to get the other seven points needed in their final three games to reach the next round.
Our expert was bang on the money with Liverpool’s opening round result, predicting both teams to score, and over 2.5 goals - both of which landed! You can currently back Liverpool to finish in the top eight of the League Phase at odds of 1.5 with Bet365.
Bet on Liverpool to reach the knockouts
Arsenal To be Tested by Three European League Champions
Arsenal have been handed the second-toughest set of fixtures in this season’s Champions League group stage of the Premier League’s contingent, with matches against three European league champions to come - Paris Saint-Germain, Inter Milan and Sporting Lisbon - with the latter two both set to be played away from the Emirates Stadium.
What makes the Gunners' route to the next round that little bit trickier is that all three of those games are set to be played in the first five weeks, with a trip to Atalanta and a home game against Shakhtar Donetsk also coming during the same period, two opponents you feel that Mikel Arteta’s men have to beat to remain in the running if they struggle against the others.
Home games against Monaco, Dinamo Zagreb and an away fixture against Girona, round out the North Londoner’s group phase, and while their journey is far from straightforward, bookmakers seem to feel that the Gunners are still among the favourites to finish in the top eight.
Arsenal kick off their Champions League campaign against Atalanta and you can get around 1.8 with Betway for Arteta and co to win their opening fixture.
Check Out Arsenal's predictions
Manchester City Need to Bounce Back from Tough Start
Manchester City, who are currently ranked as the best club team in the world by Opta’s Power Rankings, have been given a slightly easier draw on paper than their two English counterparts mentioned above, though they do still have to face off against PSG, Juventus and Sporting in the coming weeks.
Pep Guardiola’s side have already faced a stern test in the opening round against Inter Milan and were unable to find a breakthrough against the Serie A champions, with their opening match at the Etihad Stadium ending goalless - a completely against-the-odds result as far as the bookmaker odds were concerned.
The Citizens travel to Slovakia on October 1 to face Slovan Bratislava in week two and will be eyeing up a big win after seeing the perennial Super Liga champions get dismantled by Celtic 5-1 in Glasgow in the opening round.
Despite their stalemate in their first match, the reigning Premier League top dogs are still showing up as the current favourites to win the Champions League this season and you can lock in odds of 3.0 with 22Bet at this moment.
Place a wager on Man City to win the UCL
Aston Villa Crack the Best Draw of PL Representatives
Champions League debutants Aston Villa have cracked the most favourable draw of the four Premier League representatives in this year’s Champions League, with Opta’s Opponent Average Rating showing up at 88.9, which is the fifth best of any side behind Celtic (87.7), Bayern Munich (88.0), Borussia Dortmund (88.4) and Barcelona (88.6), respectively.
The Villans made the perfect start to their first-ever matches in the Champions League, coming away from Switzerland with an impressive 3-0 win over Young Boys on opening day. Next up, they will face Bayern Munich at Villa Park before another two winnable fixtures against Bologna at home and Club Brugge on the road.
Unai Emery is well known for his record in Europe having won the Europa League four times, including three in a row with Sevilla between 2014 and 2016. While we are certainly not suggesting that the Lions will win the 2024-25 Champions League, they could be a shrewd pick to reach the knockouts and will return handsomely if they do, currently carrying odds of around 4.2 with William Hill.
Remember, you can also stay tuned with all the Champions League Liverscores right here on SportyTrader throughout the during of this season’s competition.
