What have we learned from the new Champions League?
by Cydias Aujard | by Cydias Aujard
All the statistics for the 2024-2025 season
All the key statistics for the first two rounds of the 2024-2025 Champions League can be found below:
- Home wins: 53%
- Draws: 16.5%
- Away wins: 30.5%
- Average goals : 3.16 goals per game
- +0.5 goals : 92%
- -0.5 goals : 8%
- +1.5 goals : 78%
- -1.5 goals : 22%
- +2.5 goals : 64%
- -2.5 goals : 36%
- +3.5 goals : 39%
- -3.5 goals : 61%
- +4.5 goals : 16.5%
- -4.5 goals : 83.5%
- ‘Both teams to score : yes’ : 41.6%
- Win by a margin of 2 goals or more (handicap): 52.8% of games
- Correct score 0-0: 6.25% of matches
- Most common score: 2-1 or 1-2 (11.1% of games)
With 36 matches already played, we have a good average of goals and some fairly interesting Overs. We also have a high proportion of draws and a ‘both teams to score’ prediction that comes up less than half the time. But do these statistics differ greatly from those of last year at the same stage?
Last season, the statistics were quite similar
And, for comparison, here are the statistics from last season, also after two rounds (2023-2024 season):
- Home wins: 34%
- Draws: 25%
- Away wins: 41%
- Average goals : 3.22 goals per game
- +0.5 goals : 94%
- -0.5 goals : 6%
- +1.5 goals : 84%
- -1.5 goals : 16%
- +2.5 goals : 62.5%
- -2.5 goals : 37.5%
- +3.5 goals : 50%
- -3.5 goals : 50%
- +4.5 goals : 25%
- -4.5 goals : 75%
- ‘Both teams to score : yes’ : 65.6%
- Win by a margin of 2 goals or more (handicap): 34.4% of games
- Correct score 0-0: 6.25% of matches
- Most common score: 2-3 or 3-2 (15.6% of games)
To sum up, this season we have:
- More home wins (fewer draws and visitor wins)
- A slightly lower goal average
- Overall, slightly lower overs than last year
- A ‘Both teams to score’ bet that is much less popular
- Wins with a handicap are much more validated
In order to properly prepare your Champions League predictions and if the statistics from the first two games are anything to go by, you should not hesitate to bet on the home teams winning more than half of the time.
At the same time, the goal average remains very interesting and a bet of the ‘Over 2.5’ type is clearly worth trying this season, as it passes in more than 6 out of 10 matches.
The number of home wins and handicap wins is much higher this season than last.
However, the ‘Over 3.5’ and ‘Over 4.5’ are much lower than last year at the same stage of the competition! This year, it would seem that these bets should be avoided. In the same vein, the ‘Both teams to score: yes’ bet only works in just over 4 out of 10 matches...
Finally, you'll take into account that handicap wins by a one-goal margin are validated in more than half the matches this season, far more than last year! When you consider the excellent odds offered by bookmakers for this type of bet... All you have to do is take advantage!
The images featuring this article are licensed from the IMAGO website.
