Cheltenham Festival 2025: Favourites, odds and stats

How Favourites Have Performed Over The Years 

Betting on the favourite in any horse racing event can be risky - while they are backed for a reason, shorter odds mean a higher stake is needed for a worthwhile return, which can also make losses more costly. At Cheltenham, this becomes even trickier, as most horses have impeccable pedigree and many have been installed as favourites in past races. 

On average, favourites win around 30% of races at the Cheltenham Festival, but it is clear that the front-runners on the betting boards tend to do much better in certain races compared to others. The Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle has been the most rewarding for favourites, with the shortest-odds horse winning 59% of the time since its inception in 2008. In contrast, the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle, introduced in 2009, has seen the favourite reach the winners circle just 6% of the time. 

Below, we take a look at the races that are likely to garner the majority of attention over the upcoming week and provide an overview of each. 

Cheltenham Champion Day - Tuesday, March 11

The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) gets us going on Tuesday, and Kopek Des Bordes enters the race as a strong favourite despite wearing a hood for the first time. Flown won this race with blinkers back in 1992, but since then, the 42 horses that sported headgear have been beaten. Notably, half of the last dozen winners of this race had official ratings of 153+, including Vautour (155), Douvan (155), Altior (155), Klassical Dream (154), Shishkin (153), and Appreciate It (153) - Kopek Des Bordes comes in with a rating of 157 - higher than all of the aforementioned. 

The Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) will run at 15:20, and while Willie Mullins didn’t have a runner in the inaugural race in 2008, he has now trained 10 of the 16 winners since, with Quevega claiming six of those victories. Mullins has also had four runner-up finishes in this race, and while his trio in 2023 failed to crack the top three, he returned to winning ways last year with Lossiemouth, who will return to defend her title. Henry De Bromhead’s runners are also worth keeping an eye on. He won the race with Honeysuckle in 2020 and 2023 and placed second, third, and fourth last year with odds of 22-1, 40-1, and 18-1, respectively. His primary hope this year looks to be July Flower.

Feel free to make use of our odds converter to structure your bets for the week. 

Cheltenham Style Day - Wednesday, March 12

It is a known fact that novices don’t have a strong record in the Coral Cup Hurdle (Premier Handicap Hurdle), but lightly raced, second-season hurdles often perform much better. Since the start of the century, only six winners have had more than 10 hurdle starts. Supasundae won in the 2017 race after finishing seventh in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle the year before, and his half brother, Supersundae, may take part this year, having also finished seventh in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 12 months ago. Is history repeating itself, perhaps?

Cheltenham St Patrick's Day - Thursday, March 13

The Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) is in full focus on Thursday - this is often a race where it’s worth considering options outside of the favourites - and the stats certainly support that approach. This year, Teahupoo is expected to go off as a strong favourite to defend his title. It’s hard to argue against him too, especially after his impressive showing at Punchestown. 

Although he suffered defeat on his return, that loss was against Lossiemouth, and after a freshen-up, he should have a great chance here. However, for each-way value, The Wallpark caught the eye with a strong showing behind Crambo at Ascot. This looks like a great opportunity for an each-way bet, and it might be wise to place a wager before the race day, as markets are expected to shift quite a bit.

Try out our odds calculator to work out potential winnings on your Cheltenham selections. 

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2025 - Friday, March 14 

Galopin Des Champs, the clear favourite after consecutive Gold Cup victories in 2023 and 2024, leads the star-studded field once again this year. His closest rival is Fact To File, but the returning champ’s recent triumphs in the Savills Chase at Christmas and Irish Gold Cup have built strong confidence that he will be the one to beat at the Cheltenham Festival this week. 

Trained by Willie Mullins, this nine-year-old gelding is a dominant force over fences, having won all 11 of his completed starts outside of Punchestown. As Galopin Des Champs heads to Cheltenham, he is one of the most heavily backed favourites for the 2025 Festival. With a perfect temperament for big occasions, Galopin Des Champs is the complete package, making him a firm favorite among both punters and experts.

Bainbridge and Fact To File stand out as the top contenders to challenge the defending champion, although the latter might be redirected to the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase on the previous day. Bainbridge, the winner of the King George VI Chase, could thrive in the dry conditions expected on Friday. However, it’s unlikely he will run well if the ground is softer, as his stamina over the three-and-a-quarter miles of the Gold Cup is still unproven. Thus, trainer Joseph O'Brien will be hoping for a dry week with minimal watering ahead of Gold Cup day.

Key Stats from the Cheltenham Gold Cup (since 2000)

• Four of the last five favourites have won this race
• No winner has ever been aged 10 or older
• Only one winner won wearing head gear
• Only two winners had more than 13 previous chase starts, and none had more than 20
• Only two winners finished outside the top two in their previous race
• All winners were previous Grade 1 winners
• Only two winners were priced 10.0 or higher at the ante-post

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2025 Odds

• Galopin Des Champs: 1.50
• Banbridge: 4.00
• Fact To File: 5.00
• Inothewayurthinkin: 8.00
• Montys Star: 12.00
• Corbetts Cross: 16.00
• L'Homme Presse: 16.00
• Grangeclare West: 20.00
• Hewick: 40.00
• The Real Whacker: 40.00
• Jungle Boogie: 40.00
• Gentlemansgame: 50.00
• Royale Pagaille: 50.00
• Ahoy Senor: 66.00
• Conflated: 100.00

There is a plethora of betting offers from the best online betting sites for the Cheltenham Festival, and you can view them all right here on SportyTrader!

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