Champions League: bets to avoid this week
by Cydias Aujard | by Cydias Aujard
Liverpool vs PSG: forget the 0-0
In our opinion, it would be a mistake to think that we will see as few goals as in the first leg. Actually, our Liverpool-PSG forecast is rather the opposite, with the likelihood of several goals being scored. In the first leg, Paris should have scored at least 2 or 3 goals with a little more luck, better finishing and without a monumental Alisson.
In the same vein, taking a gamble like ‘both teams score? No’ is clearly not a good bet in our opinion either. We're expecting a wide-open game, as was the case in the first leg, in which Liverpool should respond a little more, however, and create a little more danger not far from Donnarumma's goal.
Finally, while Liverpool are obviously favourites to qualify after winning the first leg last Wednesday, the average odds offered by the bookmakers (1.27) to reach the quarter-finals seem far too low, and therefore unattractive to attempt. In our opinion, even if Liverpool are our favourites, Paris Saint-Germain have not said their last word and, if they are to spring a surprise at Anfield, they will have to open up and score at least two goals, which should make for a great spectacle.
Arsenal vs PSV Eindhoven: put aside the idea of a low-scoring game
For this Arsenal-PSV Eindhoven forecast, the suspense is all but dead... Arsenal extinguished all hopes of a rematch last Tuesday by crushing PSV 1-7. So it will take more than a feat - it will take a miracle - for the Dutch to qualify tomorrow night. While nothing is impossible in football, we strongly advise you not to take any chances with Luuk de Jong and his team-mates.
However, we see an open game between two fine teams, with the visitors of the day having nothing left to lose in any case and who will want to leave the competition in a much better manner than they experienced last week. Forget the ‘under’ and the ‘both teams score? No', because we're expecting another attacking showpiece.
Aston Villa vs Club Brugge: don't bet on the Belgians
Now it's time for our Aston Villa-Club Brugge forecast, with the Villans the obvious favourites in this second head-to-head. They won 1-3 on Tuesday and will have to do the same at home. After a Conference League semi-final last year, the English club have another opportunity to mark their return to the top flight, this time in the premier competition.
And we can see no other outcome than a victory for Unai Emery and his men. If you were hoping for a positive result from the Belgians, or even for them to qualify, we advise you against taking your chances. The stakes seem too high for Club Brugge, who nonetheless put in an exceptional performance, knocking out Atalanta Bergamo in the play-offs.
In the same vein, we also see Aston Villa putting on a show at home, scoring at least 2 goals. If you want to bet on a very low-scoring game, we think the scenario could well be quite similar to the one we experienced in the first leg. So take another look at the stats for the second leg in our prediction below.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich: avoid betting on Bayer
We continue the evening with the 100% German clash, and our Bayer Leverkusen-Bayern Munich forecast. After winning 3-0 in the first leg, helped by Kovar's error on the second goal and Nordi Mukiele's red card, Bayern Munich must finish the job tonight. The odds on a draw or a win for the Bavarians look very attractive.
Even if we don't see Xabi Alonso's men bouncing back, and we don't think they should win this match and therefore go through to the last 16, we think they could fight back and score at least one goal. It's a commendable record for a club that once struggled for survival before the arrival of the Spanish coach. We would therefore advise you not to bet on Bayer Leverkusen winning or qualifying this evening, as they will also be without their star man Florian Wirtz (who was injured against Werder last weekend and will be out for several weeks).
What's more, we don't see a match with more than 3.5 goals, as the Bundesliga has so often offered us, since this gamble has not been taken after five encounters between the two teams! If you'd like more details and figures on recent encounters, head over to our prediction for the match by clicking on the button below.
Inter vs Feyenoord: don't paint Feyenoord too rosy
The third match is scheduled for 20:00 (UK time), and it looks as though there will be less drama than Liverpool vs PSG. While our Inter Milan-Feyenoord forecast sees a fine evening for striker Lautaro Martinez, the rest of our prediction also sees Inter winning this second duel and once again without conceding a goal.
Simone Inzaghi's men should do well to impose their game at home and, above all, maintain their status as the best defenders in the Champions League in 24-25. So we advise you to forget about a Dutch exploit, or even the fact that the Dutch will be shaking the net. We don't see a goal-fest either!
Barcelona vs Benfica: no Under bet to be expected
Earlier today, with kick-off at 17:45 (UK time), our Barcelona-Benfica forecast awaits you. What if Barca weren't just becoming the overwhelming favourites to win the Champions League? The Catalan club is having a very solid season under Hansi Flick, and is positioning itself as a very serious contender.
Reduced to 10 men after 22 minutes in the first leg, Barcelona played a very serious and solid game, winning 0-1 thanks to a goal from Raphinha on the hour mark and an excellent performance from Wojciech Szczęsny. Although Benfica largely dominated the match, it still showed Pedri and his team-mates' ability to endure but hold on, as well as punishing on the counter.
While Robert Lewandowski is expected to be on target this evening, the scenario is also likely to be very different from the first leg, with a goalscoring encounter like the one on 21 January (Barca won 4-5). For this second leg, bets like ‘Under’ and ‘both teams score? No' bets should be avoided. A good result for Benfica, or even better, qualification, also seems hard to envisage. For us, it's better to play the goalscorers and the Over on this match!
Atlético vs Real Madrid: we dodge the Colchoneros' qualification
We move on to the 20:00 (UK time) matches, and get off to a flying start with the Madrid derby and our Atlético Madrid-Real Madrid! Kylian Mbappé's club took a slight lead with a 2-1 win in a match that had its fair share of slip-ups. However, it's not over yet and the suspense remains high ahead of tomorrow evening's return leg.
And we're giving Carlo Ancelotti's men the edge. So we'd advise you not to take any chances of the Colchoneros winning or even qualifying, and we'd rather see Madrid reach the quarter-finals. Even if the odds for Atlético Madrid to qualify are tempting on paper (on average 2.85), in our opinion it would be a wasted gamble.
As for the second leg, we once again see the ‘both teams score’ bet go through. This bet has been validated in the last 10 matches in all competitions. This should dissuade you from placing a bet on a clean sheet from one of the two teams or a bet on ‘both teams score? No’.
Atlético Madrid-Real Madrid forecast
Lille vs Dortmund: beware of putting too much faith in Borussia
We move on to Wednesday evening with a clash for our country at 17:45 (UK time). LOSC host BVB in Villeneuve d'Ascq, and our Lille-Borussia Dortmund forecast is already available. According to our prediction, Lille should book their place in the quarter-finals. In our opinion, the odds of Borussia qualifying (1.78) should be avoided, especially as they don't seem that high for a club that has been struggling in recent weeks.
In the same vein, we feel that LOSC are more than capable of winning in normal time. Betting on a draw is therefore not the best idea, and on a BVB victory even less so. Lille, who have already beaten Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, know how to compete with the big boys and will have to prove it again tomorrow evening.
