Champions League: what's the verdict ahead of matchday 6, who's disappointing and who are the surprise candidates?
by Cydias Aujard | by Cydias Aujard
Liverpool is making a clean sweep
Liverpool Reds are enjoying an exceptional season. While many were waiting to see what this team would be like without Jurgen Klopp, we have to admit that his replacement, Dutchman Arne Slot, is doing a superb job.
The Mersey club are not only top of the Premier League with a healthy lead over the chasing pack, they are also top of the Championship phase of the Champion's League as the only team to have won its first 5 matches.
Liverpool have won all 5 of their games, conceded just 1 goal and scored 12 in the Champions League this season.
More of an underdog according to the odds offered by the bookmakers and our Champions League prediction at the start of the season, Liverpool are now the big favourites and for good reason: they have already beaten a number of potential rivals such as AC Milan (1-3), Bayer Leverkusen (4-0) and above all Real Madrid (2-0)!
With a relatively favourable end to their campaign, the Anfield residents can obviously hope to finish top of this first phase, with 8 wins out of 8? Girona, Lille and PSV will be trying to prevent that from happening!
Liverpool win the league phase, odds at 1.27 at BetWinner
Aston Villa, Sporting, Dortmund, Atalanta and Leverkusen all in the picture
To move on, let's look at the teams who are currently doing well. Some were a little expected, others less so!
Aston Villa aim for top 8
The Villains are back in the limelight! After many years in England's second tier or at the bottom of the Premier League table, Aston Villa have been revitalised in recent seasons. Under the guidance of Unai Emery, the Birmingham club have made a good start to their Champion's League campaign, finishing 9th and level on points with the three clubs above them.
After beating Youngs Boys (0-3), Bayern (1-0) and Bologna (2-0), losing at Brugge (1-0) and then splitting the points with Juventus (0-0), Aston Villa have high hopes for their final three games. With a trip to Leipzig tomorrow evening, Monaco and then Celtic, Lucas Digne's team-mates have everything they need to finish in the top 8.
- Aston Villa finish in the top 8, odds at 3.00 at BetWinner
- Aston Villa finish between 9th and 24th, odds at 1.42 at 1xBet
Identical situation for Sporting
Let's continue with the Portuguese champions, who have just lost their coach Ruben Amorim (who has left for Manchester United). Things had started well for the Portuguese club, who hadn't lost in their first 4 games (2-0 win over Lille, 1-1 against PSV and then 0-2 and 4-1 wins at Sturm Graz and against Manchester City).
However, the last match without Amorim was a real failure, with a heavy 1-5 defeat against Arsenal. Sporting have what it takes to respond, and first travel to Bruges on Tuesday evening before another trip to Leipzig, followed by a visit to Bologna. With 10 points already on the board, Viktor Gyökeres and his team-mates could be in for a real treat if they can put together a good run of form to finish...
- Sporting finish in the top 8, odds at 2.40 at 1xBet
- Sporting finish between 9th and 24th, odds at 1.60 at BetWinner
BVB almost perfect
We follow with Borussia Dortmund, who, despite a heavy 5-2 defeat at the Bernabeu, have secured their place in the next round (4th on 12 points). With a fairly ‘straightforward’ fixture list on paper, Dortmund held their nerve. The Ruhr club first beat Brugge (0-3) and then Celtic Glasgow (7-1) before losing to Real Madrid, before bouncing back with wins over Sturm Graz (1-0) and Dinamo Zagreb (0-3).
With the rest of the league phase still very much within their grasp, once again on paper, BVB could well finish in the top eight, where they were not necessarily expected to be. They will first have to put in a solid performance against Barcelona on Wednesday, before travelling to Bologna and then hosting Shakhtar Donetsk. Dortmund have a great chance!
- Dortmund finish in the top 8, odds at 1.30 at 1xBet
- Dortmund finish between 9th and 24th place, odds at 3.50 at BetWinner
Europa League winners on fire
For their part, Atalanta are currently just behind BVB, 1 point behind. Used to European action for many seasons now, La Dea are sure of a place in the 2024-2025 Champions League.
The Italian club has simply not lost a single match, having held off Arsenal in the first game (0-0). Behind the scenes, the club has done well: 0-3 against Shakhtar Donetsk, 0-0 against Celtic and then wins of 0-2 and 1-6 against Stuttgart and Young Boys. With Real Madrid at home on Tuesday evening, Sturm Graz and Barcelona on the road, Atalanta can look forward to a top 8 finish!
- Atalanta finish in the top 8, odds at 2.50 at 1xBet
- Atalanta finish between 9th and 24th, odds at 1.55 at BetWinner
Leverkusen in the mix
As we all know, the confirmation season is always a difficult one. Bayer Leverkusen, who enjoyed a sensational and historic campaign last season, are no exception to this - almost - truth. A little less solid and miraculous than last year, they are nonetheless having a very interesting season, having just knocked out Bayern Munich in the German Cup.
Bayer will be in the top 8 if they do well against direct rivals Inter and Atlético.
In the UEFA Champions League, the record is good: 10 points, thanks in particular to wins over Feyenoord (0-4), AC Milan (1-0) and RB Salzburg (5-0). In between, Bayer took a point against Brest (1-1) before suffering a heavy defeat at Anfield (4-0). With Inter, Atletico Madrid and Sparta Prague all in their sights, the future standing of Florian Wirtz and his team-mates looks very uncertain, as the Champions League odds below confirm.
- Bayer Leverkusen finish in the top 8, odds at 1.85 at 1xBet
- Bayer Leverkusen finish between 9th and 24th, odds 2.00 at BetWinner
Monaco, Brest and Lille: the big surprises
While France has become accustomed to the disappointing, even humiliating, campaigns of its clubs in European Cups, this season seems to be out of the ordinary. Indeed, AS Monaco, Stade Brestois and LOSC have all had magnificent campaigns, and are all very close to qualifying for at least the play-offs.
ASM spectacular
Monaco, currently in 8th place and directly qualified for the last 16, got off to a perfect start with a 2-1 win over Barcelona. After picking up a point in Zagreb against Dinamo (2-2), crushing Red Star (5-1) and then beating Bologna (1-2), Monaco were not helped by the refereeing against Benfica (2-3 defeat).
ASM, who should well be in the play-offs, will nonetheless find it hard to hold on to their current position, given the daunting schedule that awaits them: a trip to Arsenal, home to Aston Villa and then a trip to Milan to take on Inter. One thing is certain: we should once again be treated to some superb matches!
- Monaco finish in the top 8, odds at 9.00 at BetWinner
- Monaco finish between 9th and 24th, odds at 1.10 at 1xBet
The Brest success story
But Brest's greatest achievement is undoubtedly theirs. Currently 11th in the Champions League, the club is competing in a European competition for the first time in its history. A campaign that has got off to a perfect start with an unbeaten record in its first 4 matches: wins over Sturm Graz (2-1) and RB Salzburg (0-4), a draw against Bayer Leverkusen (1-1) and a win in Prague against Sparta (1-2).
Brest, virtually guaranteed a place in the play-offs, have already made a success of their European campaign.
Brest ended up losing 3-0 to FC Barcelona, against whom the step was too high. With PSV Eindhoven, Shakhtar Donetsk and Kylian Mbappé's Real Madrid to come, Stade Brestois can dream bigger, but they can already be satisfied with a likely play-off place.
- Brest finish in the top 8, odds at 10.00 at 1xBet
- Brest finish between 9th and 24th, odds at 1.06 at BetWinner
Lille and Genesio, the winning duo?
What can you say about LOSC's current campaign? Lille have made their fans dream this season, especially as the club has already been on the road to Europe for months. After eliminating José Mourinho's Fenerbahçe and then Slavia Prague in the play-offs, fans of the northern club could not believe their eyes when the draw was made.
Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid, Juventus and Liverpool! The result: no defeat to date (before the trip to Anfield). And although things got off to a bad start with a 2-0 defeat to Sporting in Lisbon, LOSC produced two near-perfect games against Real (1-0) and Atlético (1-3). Although the 1-1 draw with Juve was more difficult, it was against another Italian club that Genesio's men picked up three more points, at Bologna 2 weeks ago (1-2).
And unlike Monaco in particular, Lille have an affordable fixture list on paper, and can dream of reaching the last 16! With Sturm Graz on Wednesday, a magnificent trip to Liverpool and then Feyenoord at home, Jonathan David and his team-mates have a golden opportunity to write a little more history for the club.
- Lille finish in the top 8, odds at 4.50 at BetWinner
- Lille finish between 9th and 24th, odds at 1.22 at 1xBet
Bayern and Manchester City both disappoint
Let's move on to two much-anticipated clubs whose results nevertheless disappointed. Although they are not out of the running for the top 8, we still expected better from these two title favourites.
The Bavarians are used to better results
If there was one thing Bayern never missed in the Champions League, it was the group stage. For many years, the club remained unbeaten in this first part of the competition, which is no longer the case today. The format is certainly different and Bayern are in transition, but that doesn't excuse everything.
Currently 13th with 9 points, Vincent Kompany's men have already lost twice in 5 games (1-0 at Aston Villa and 4-1 at Barcelona on Matchdays 2 and 3). Yet things had got off to a perfect start with a 9-2 win over Dinamo Zagreb in their opener. After the two defeats, Bayern made sure of the points with 1-0 wins over Benfica and PSG.
Harry Kane and his team-mates also have a very favourable final fixture list (Shakhtar Donetsk, Feyenoord and then Slovan Bratislava), and should not have too much trouble finishing among the top 8 teams in this league phase. However, the odds on this bet are still pretty attractive.
- Bayern finish in the top 8, odds at 1.37 at 1xBet
- Bayern finish between 9th and 24th, odds at 3.20 at BetWinner
Manchester City decimated and in crisis
As for Manchester City, the club is slowly emerging from a crisis of 7 games without a win, including 6 defeats during the period. An unprecedented run for the club under Guardiola. During this difficult period, the Sky Blues lost heavily in Lisbon to Sporting (4-1) before drawing at home to Feyenoord (3-3), despite leading 3-0 after 73 minutes...
Prior to that, Man City had started with a goalless draw against Inter Milan at the Etihad, before crushing Slovan Bratislava (0-4) and Sparta Prague (5-0). With a far from straightforward fixture list ahead of them (away matches against Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain followed by a visit to Club Brugge), Guardiola has every reason to be concerned!
- Manchester City finish in top 8, odds at 4.50 at BetWinner
- Manchester City finish between 9th and 24th, odds at 1.22 at 1xBet
Disastrous results for Real Madrid and PSG
Let's turn now to the clubs who were expected to win, but who have so far completely missed their first 5 games.
Real Madrid on the verge of crisis?
What if having a team of Galacticos doesn't work out for Real Madrid after all? While their record in the 2000s was not excellent, Real have won their last two Champions League titles without having the best squad in the world. This year, with the recruitment of Kylian Mbappé, expectations were enormous.
And what a huge disappointment it has been so far. The game is generally non-existent and based on personal exploits, there seems to be a growing gap between the attack and the rest of the team, some players are not playing in their positions, and there are a number of injuries: to sum up, Real's start to the season has been a failure.
The proof is in the figures: the Merengue club had never lost 3 games in the group phase in its history. Now they have, with defeats against Lille (1-0), AC Milan (1-3) and Liverpool (2-0). Although Real got off to a good start (3-1 against Stuttgart) and then responded well between LOSC and AC (5-2 against Dortmund), their problems were already apparent, particularly in the first half against BVB.
With a tricky trip to face Atalanta on Tuesday evening and then two games that look easier on paper (Salzburg and a trip to Guingamp to take on Brest), Real could well have to make do with a play-off place. A failure for the club with 15 Champions League titles!
- Real Madrid finish in the top 8, odds at 17.00 at 1xBet
- Real Madrid finish between 9th and 24th, odds at 1.03 at BetWinner
PSG pay for poor recruitment
How would you sum up PSG's start to the season? Dominant in the League, inoffensive in the Champions League? The capital club are currently 25th, just behind Real, and would therefore be eliminated if the league phase ended now.
Everything started well in the first game, with a 1-0 win over Girona despite a lack of finishing. But the rest was a different story. After losing at Arsenal (2-0), Paris Saint-Germain failed to beat PSV at home (1-1), and lost their next two games (1-2 to Atlético and then 1-0 to Bayern).
Without a finisher, PSG were unable to capitalise on their chances and paid for it in the accounts.
With 3 defeats in 5 games, Paris is in a tricky position. But our experts believe that Luis Enrique and his men have what it takes to qualify for the play-offs, with a less difficult fixture list to finish with. First of all, the Parisians face a trip to Salzburg tomorrow evening, against whom they must take all 3 points.
Next up is a much tougher game against Manchester City at the Parc des Princes on 22 January 2025. Finally, Paris travel to Stuttgart. By taking at least 6 points, PSG should qualify for the play-offs. These matches, like all the others in the competition, can be followed live on our Champions League Livescore!
- PSG qualify for the play-offs (between 9th and 24th place), odds at 1.70 at BetWinner
Leipzig in the bottom of the hole
Not necessarily expected to play against a favourite or an outsider, Rasenballsport Leipzig have nonetheless performed much better in the Champions League. Often runners-up or even a little better at times, the German club is most likely already out of the competition.
Currently 34th (out of 36), Lois Openda and her team-mates simply have a catastrophic record: 5 defeats in as many games, with 10 goals conceded already. They find themselves 6 points behind Real, who last qualified for the play-offs, and 10 behind Monaco, who occupy the last place for the last 16 and are therefore already out of reach.
After defeats by Atlético (2-1), Juventus (2-3), Liverpool (0-1), Celtic (3-1) and Inter Milan (1-0), Leipzig also have a tough fixture list ahead of them, with Aston Villa and Sporting next on the agenda. Will the trip to Sturm Graz on the final matchday provide the only hope of picking up points and avoiding humiliation?
- Leipzig qualify for the play-offs (between 9th and 24th place), odds at 20.00 at 1xBet
