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Champions League: Can Dortmund and Aston Villa Still Qualify for the Semi-Finals?

by Joseph King | by Cydias Aujard

image Champions League: Can Dortmund and Aston Villa Still Qualify for the Semi-Finals?
Aston Villa are seeking to advance to the semi-final for the first time since 1982, when it was called the European Cup, but face an uphill task against an in-form PSG side. Dortmund face the prospect of putting at least four goals past the current oddsmakers’ favorites for the Champions League title. Do either side have a chance?

Aston Villa vs PSG: Parisians on the cusp of second straight semi-final

After a 3-1 first leg win for PSG, Aston Villa are on the brink of elimination from Europe’s elite club competition. Here’s the outlook for Villa fans ahead of the return leg this Tuesday:

The good news:

  • Aston Villa are back at Villa Park, where they have been excellent on the year and are unbeaten in their last 17 home matches across all competitions. 
  • Morgan Rogers’ opening goal means they aren’t completely out of the tie.
  • PSG have a history of giving up commanding first leg leads (see Barcelona’s memorable 4-0 comeback in 2017 and Manchester United’s in 2019).

The bad news:

  • The majority of this current PSG team wasn’t part of those squads - only Marquinhos and Presnel Kimpembe were on those 2017 and 2019 teams.
  • They also have a seasoned leader in Luis Enrique at the helm, who just so happened to be leading the Barcelona team that pulled off that historic comeback.
  •  PSG are hitting their peak form and have won 17 of their last 18 across all competitions.

PSG benefiting from youth

Despite being one of the youngest squads in the competition, PSG have consistently been passing every test put in front of them this season.

Youth can be a double-edged sword; some teams collapse under the weight of the moment with a lack of big-game experience, yet others possess a beneficial blend of arrogance and naivety to believe that they can beat any team they come up against.

PSG have shown so far to be the latter. As Vitinha (and a number of other players) said after the first leg round of 16 loss to Liverpool, they were going to come into Anfield and show Liverpool exactly what they were about - which they certainly did by outplaying the soon-to-be Premier League champions over the two-legged tie.

They proved even more of their character at the Parc des Princes last week, where they were hit against the run of play and had to rally to come back to claim their 3-1 win. The French side also completely controlled the tempo of the first leg. They recorded the highest ever pass accuracy (94.5%) in a single Champions League match in club history. Check out our experts' thoughts in our Aston Villa vs PSG prediction!

Match information

Dortmund vs Barcelona: miracle needed in North Rhine-Westphalia

Raphinha goes up for the header

While there exists a sliver of hope that Villa might be able to pull off the comeback in the Midlands this week, there doesn’t exist that same sentiment ahead of Dortmund’s home leg against Barcelona. The best online bookmakers have Barcelona as overwhelming favorites to advance to the semi-finals

Coming into the quarter-final, the Blaugrana were favorites to win the Champions League. Their dominant first leg performance has only reinforced that and the Germans will have to pull off something truly miraculous if they are to keep their dream of a second straight final appearance alive.

Barcelona rampant in the first leg

The Catalan club were ruthless in front of goal in the first leg, converting on four of the five clear cut chances they created en route to a 4-0 win. Dortmund had their chances, and will be disappointed they didn’t net at least one.

Check out the first leg stats below:

CategoryBarcelonaDortmund
Goals scored40
Expected goals3.691.45
Total shots1813
Shots on target63
Clear cut chances created53

Dortmund have staged comebacks at the Signal Iduna Park before. Most recently when they overturned a 2-1 first leg deficit to win 5-4 on aggregate against Atletico Madrid in the quarter-finals of the 2024 Champions League. However, there is obviously a big difference here and Dortmund have overall struggled with inconsistent form this season. See what our experts think in our Dortmund vs Barcelona prediction!

Match details

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