6 Nations Rugby: what's really at stake on the final day?
by Cydias Aujard | by Cydias Aujard
England: there's still hope!
England are currently the runners-up in the tournament with 15 points and a points difference of +20. This is a fine record, as it already surpasses that of last year, when England finished the tournament on 14 points and third in the standings. A bonus-point victory over Wales could give them the title if France lose their match. With a one-point lead over Les Bleus, English players not only need to win, but also need to win the attacking bonus to maximise their chances.
England were solid throughout the tournament, including a narrow 26-25 win over France, and followed that up with back-to-back wins over Scotland and Italy, but they are still dependent on the result of their rivals' match.
France: on course for the title?
With 16 points and a points difference of +106, Les Bleus are well placed to win the title. Fabien Galthié's men take on Scotland in the final match of the 2025 Six Nations, this Saturday 15 March at 9pm at the Stade de France. To ensure they lift the trophy, Les Bleus must beat the Scots with an attacking bonus. Despite the absence of Antoine Dupont (injury), the French remain overwhelming favourites according to our France-Scotland prediction.
Individually, things are going well for the French, with Thomas Ramos leading the way in points scored, Louis Bielle-Biarrey in tries scored and Antoine Dupont in assists made. Our rugby specialists don't see things changing for this final day.
Ireland: a slim chance of the title
Third with 14 points and a points difference of +13, Ireland still have a mathematical chance of winning by a narrow margin. Twice holders of the title, the Shamrock team could lose out to France again, as they did in 2022.
To avoid this and complete a treble, France will not only have to win with the bonus against Italy, but also hope for a French defeat and an English victory without the bonus (or an English defeat).
As you can see, Ireland will not only have to beat Italy to improve their goal-average, they will also have to hope for a defeat by England and France. A complicated mission for Ireland, then, despite the return of James Lowe to the Irish line-up.
Scotland: a honourable place to defend
With 11 points and a +3 differential, Scotland can no longer aim for the title, but a win against France would ensure them a respectable fourth place, or even better if Ireland and/or England slip up.
The Scots have had their ups and downs, but now face the best team in the tournament. Scotland will also have their work cut out.
Italy and Wales: saving honour
Italy (4 points, -77) and Wales (3 points, -65) are fighting to avoid last place. Far behind the trio of 4 in terms of level of play, these two teams are aiming for a feat (or a consolation bonus) on this final day. While Italy have already won a match, the Welsh, who have been in great difficulty this year, will be hoping to avoid the wooden spoon.
Matchday 5 schedule (15/03):
- Italy - Ireland (14:15)
- Wales - England (16:45)
- France - Scotland (20:00)
