Tennis: First round in Miami promises to be a big surprise
by Cydias Aujard | by Cydias Aujard
Reilly Opelka to watch
We should then see American local Reilly Opelka take advantage of his return to the courts to try his luck for longer in this tournament and come out on top in our ATP Miami prediction. After staying away from the tennis courts in 2023, the 27-year-old played little in 2024 and is attempting a comeback this year. Protected ranking in this tournament, but also in his first tournament of the season, did not prevent him from springing a surprise at the Brisbane tournament at the start of the year with 4 consecutive wins. These were unexpected victories against the world's best, as he managed to stop world number 5 Novak Djokovic in 2 sets in the quarter-finals, and then Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard to reach the final.
The American finally withdrew from the final against Jiri Lehecka, but made a successful comeback and showed that he can be a force to be reckoned with at major tournaments. Winner of his first 2 rounds in Dallas more recently, he should be keen to rediscover the form that has left its mark on this surface. If he manages to win his first round match against compatriot Christopher Eubanks, he could make his mark against number 11 seed Holger Rune.
Arnaldi aims to make an impression
This year, as well as the top seeds who are expected to be in the draw, there are other participants who are likely to attract a great deal of attention in the early stages of the tournament and in your tennis predictions. A number of players could make their mark in the early rounds and confirm their status as outsiders.
First and foremost, Italian Matteo Arnaldi should be in the running. The 24-year-old is returning to the Miami tournament, where he did rather well last year, winning his first 3 rounds to reach the last 16. In particular, he pulled off some superb victories over heavily-favoured opponents such as Frenchman Arthur Fils, top seed Alexander Bublik and Canadian Denis Shapovalov, in matches lasting just 2 sets.
The Italian, who should remember his success of last year, should arrive on American soil confident of repeating his success from the first round. What's more, having taken part in the Indian Wells Masters 1000 last week, he won his first two rounds with ease, firstly against Aleksandar Kovacevic (ranked 79th in the world), then springing a surprise against world number 9 Andrey Rublev.
These two first-round victories mark the third time this season that he has managed to progress beyond the first round in Dallas and Delray Beach. Although his first opponent, China's Yibing Wu, is within his grasp, it is in the second round that he could meet top seed Tomas Machac and spring a surprise.
Gaël Monfils still in the mix?
One Frenchman also carries the well-known status of outsider in this Masters 1000, the 38-year-old Gaël Monfils. If only one name could define the word outsider, it would certainly be the Frenchman. Determined in every one of his matches, he gives it his all right up until the very end, and very often manages to spring a surprise. Last week at the Indian Wells Masters 1000, the Frenchman won his first round tie against Jan-Lennard Struff without a hitch, then showed his motivation against local player Sebastian Korda, ranked 25th in the world, by winning their duel 7-6(7-2), 7-6(7-4).
He then lost in the round of 16 to top 15 player Grigor Dimitrov, but came close to victory in a very tight 3-set tie-break. Winner of the Auckland hard court tournament at the start of the year, Gaël Monfils also won his first 3 rounds at the Australian Open, stopping world number 4 Taylor Fritz in the process, and also won his first two rounds in the Miami Masters 1000 last year. These more than encouraging results should enable him to win his first rounds in this tournament. And it is particularly in the second round that he could show all his motivation against the Czech Jiri Lehecka.
João Fonseca, the rising star of the moment
Finally, it is the 18-year-old Brazilian João Fonseca who should be the focus of attention from the very first rounds. Described as the new nugget of men's tennis, the Brazilian made a splash by winning the ATP Next Gen Finals title at the end of last season against American Learner Tien. This title certainly gave him wings, as he kicked off his 2025 season by winning the title at the Canberra Challenger.
His first-round win at the Australian Open Grand Slam against top 10 player Andrey Rublev must also have given him a great deal of confidence to continue his career against today's top players. Then, on the clay of Buenos Aires, the young player won the first ATP tournament of his career against local Francisco Cerundolo, ranked 24th in the world, despite being heavily favoured.
João Fonseca has been playing some superb tennis in recent weeks.
Winner of his first round match at Indian Wells last week but stopped in the second round by Jack Draper, the Brazilian seems to have rediscovered his fine form at the Phoenix Challenger a few days ago, where he won the title against Alexander Bublik.
A fine start to the season on both hard and clay should give him hope of a good run in this Masters 1000. It is an opponent he knows well, having beaten him in the final of the ATP Next Gen Finals, Learner Tien, who he meets again in the first round and who he should manage to beat again to join top 20 Ugo Humbert.
We should see some fine first-round performances from these players, who have been described as outsiders and who should continue their adventures well beyond the first round in order to join the leaders and seeded players.
