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ATP - ATP Indian Wells

ATP 12 USA
Tommy Paul
16 Mar 2024 21:50
ATP 4 Russia
Daniil Medvedev

Prediction :

Daniil Medvedev -3.5 game handicap

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Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Indian Wells

 by Joseph King | in ATP Indian Wells Predictions

A semi-final matchup in the ATP Indian Wells Open sees fourth-seeded Daniil Medvedev taking on the 17th seed in American Tommy Paul. The winner of this match will advance to the final to take on either Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner. 

Medvedev, who is currently ranked fourth in the official ATP rankings, was able to overcome young Dane Holger Rune in straight sets in the quarter-finals with a score of 7-5, 6-4 to advance to his third straight semi-final in his three events played in 2024. A win here would see the 28-year-old in his second final of the year, setting up a potential rematch with the man who bested him for the Australian Open crown in January in Jannik Sinner. Medvedev has lost only twice in the current ATP season en route to a 13-2 record, all of which have come on hard court surfaces. The controversial Russian pro comes into this final four showdown riding a four match winning streak and having dropped only a single set in the Indian Wells Open this year.

Tommy Paul comes into this matchup looking to make his second final of the 2024 season. The 26-year-old was crowned champion at the Dallas Open in February, defeating fellow American Marcos Giron 2-1 in the final for his first competition win of the year. He would see a disappointing follow up in Mexico however, after he was bounced 6-0, 6-4 by 37th-ranked Jack Draper in the first round. It wasn’t the first concerning defeat Paul had suffered in 2024 after again being eliminated by Draper in another tournament earlier in the year as well as his third-round loss to 47th-ranked Miomir Kecmanovic in the Australian Open. On the whole, Paul has a record of 14-4 on the year, which drops to 10-4 on outdoor hard courts.

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The Best Betting Odds for Tommy Paul v Daniil Medvedev Match

Bookmaker 1 2 Bonus up to
Bet365
3.2 1.33
Ladbrokes
3 1.35
NetBet
3.2 1.35
1xbet
3.33 1.34
22bet
3.33 1.34
Betwinner
3.4 1.32
LSbet
3.4 1.32
Stake
3.2 1.37
Melbet
3.3 1.33
Tonybet
3.15 1.36
William Hill
3.1 1.36
Vbet
3.15 1.37
Betway
3.2 1.35
Unibet
3.1 1.37
Betfair
3.2 1.36
Betsson
3.1 1.38
Check all Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev odds
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Who will win the Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev Tennis game?

The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev game on 16/03/2024 of the current ATP Indian Wells season:

  • Tommy Paul has a 33.55% chance to win against Daniil Medvedev according to Betwinner ⭐ with the odds of 3.4.
  • Daniil Medvedev has a 66.45% probability of winning facing Tommy Paul ⭐ with odds of 1.38 at Betsson.

Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev Best Prediction and Odds

Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Tommy Paul has a 33.55 % chance to win.

PredictionChance to win
Tommy Paul33.55 %
Daniil Medvedev66.45 %

Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev Form

Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev Last Matches

Tommy Paul Last matches
L L W W W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

14 Mar 2024 - ATP Indian Wells

Tommy Paul
2 :  1
Casper Ruud

13 Mar 2024 - ATP Indian Wells

Luca Nardi
0 :  2
Tommy Paul

11 Mar 2024 - ATP Indian Wells

Tommy Paul
2 :  0
Ugo Humbert

9 Mar 2024 - ATP Indian Wells

Tommy Paul
2 :  0
Alex Michelsen

26 Feb 2024 - ATP Acapulco Open

Jack Draper
2 :  0
Tommy Paul

19 Feb 2024 - ATP Delray Beach Open

Taylor Fritz
2 :  0
Tommy Paul
Daniil Medvedev Last matches
W L W W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

14 Mar 2024 - ATP Indian Wells

Daniil Medvedev
2 :  0
Holger Rune

13 Mar 2024 - ATP Indian Wells

Daniil Medvedev
2 :  0
Grigor Dimitrov

11 Mar 2024 - ATP Indian Wells

Daniil Medvedev
2 :  1
Sebastian Korda

10 Mar 2024 - ATP Indian Wells

Daniil Medvedev
2 :  0
Roberto Carballes Baena

1 Mar 2024 - ATP Dubai Open

Daniil Medvedev
0 :  2
Ugo Humbert

29 Feb 2024 - ATP Dubai Open

Daniil Medvedev
2 :  0
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

29 Sep 2023 - ATP Beijing Open

Tommy Paul
0 :  2
Daniil Medvedev

Tommy Paul - Daniil Medvedev Key Points

  1. Medvedev has an accumulated +18 game differential against his opponents in his four matches this tournament, covering a -3.5 spread in three.
  2. Paul hasn't fared well against Medvedev in his career, losing both of their matchups including the most recent (2023 Beijing) 6-2, 6-1 on a hard court surface.
  3. In his two matches against Tommy Paul, Daniil Medvedev has outscored his opponent by a total games tally of 30-14, covering a -3.5 spread in both contests.
  4. Medvedev has a career winning percentage of 76.11% on hard courts (239 wins, 75 losses) while Paul comes in at 64.31% (209 wins, 116 losses).
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Our Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

Daniil Medvedev certainly has the psychological advantage over Tommy Paul after his convincing victory the last time these two faced off in September of 2023. The Russian should be confident of a similar type of result as he has been the player in the better form. Medvedev's only two losses of the year so far have come at the hands of 14th-ranked Ugo Humbert and Jannik Sinner who is currently the hottest player on the ATP Tour. Paul, meanwhile, has been bested three times already in 2024 by players ranked 35th+. Our Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul prediction is for Medvedev to win the match and cover the -3.5 game handicap.

Prediction :

Daniil Medvedev -3.5 game handicap

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bet365 Tennis Retirement Guarantee

When betting on tennis with a UK bookmaker, if the opponent of the player that you have backed retires from the match for any reason, the bet is voided. That is not the case if you place a bet on bet365, however, where you will be paid out as a winner. This is done by your stake being returned as cash and what would be the profit on your bet being returned to you as bet credits. This is available on the to win markets on matches on the ATP and WTA tours as well as any of the grand slam events. Both singles and multiples are valid on the offer with multiples paid out on the other winning selections in cash and the game that contains the retired player will be paid out in bet credits. The retirement guarantee is not valid on bets that have been cashed out nor on any Bet Builder markets.

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Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction
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