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ATP - ATP Mutua Madrid Open

ATP 27 Argentina
Sebastian Baez
01 May 2023 14:00
ATP 11 Greece
Stefanos Tsitsipas

Prediction :

First set over 8.5 games

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Sebastian Baez vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Mutua Madrid Open

 by Devesh Jaganath in Tennis Predictions

Stefanos Tsitsipas and Sebastian Baez will face off for the second time in their careers when the pair meet on Monday in the third round of the Mutua Madrid Open. Ranked fifth in the world, Tsitsipas has continued his good form on the clay surface this year and comes into this one following a final appearance under two weeks ago in Barcelona. In that tournament, Tsitsipas overcame several well-ranked players, including Denis Shapovalov, Alex De Minaur, and Lorenzo Musetti. He now sports a solid overall record of 21-6 and 7-2 on this surface. Tsitsipas met this opponent in last year’s Australian Open and overcame him in four sets, which will give him bags of confidence to pull off a win on this surface. Following an excellent run in Barcelona, and a hard-fought game against Dominic Thiem in the previous round, the Greek will feel that he’s in good enough form to find a path to the last 16 by recording another win in this one.  

Sebastian Baez has improved his world ranking steadily this year, rising from 47th in January to 31st at present. The Argentine struggled on the hard surface this year, managing just one win in six matches, though he has been better on his favoured clay surface, maintaining a positive record of 11-6. Baez won his second major title in Cordoba in February and followed up with a quarter-final appearance in Rio and a semi-final in Santiago. In Estoril, the Argentine was unable to defend his title, losing out to Casper Ruud in the last eight, and since then had two first-round exits in Monte Carlo and Munich. In the first round of this tournament, Baez took on Marcos Giron and overcame the American in three sets. Against a top-ten player that has gotten the better of him once before, Baez may find it difficult to progress here in Madrid.

Sebastian Baez vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Form

Sebastian Baez and Stefanos Tsitsipas Last Matches

Sebastian Baez Last matches
W W L L L W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

18 Apr 2023 - ATP Munich Open

Oscar Otte
2 :  0
Sebastian Baez

7 Apr 2023 - ATP Estoril Open

Casper Ruud
2 :  0
Sebastian Baez

5 Apr 2023 - ATP Estoril Open

Pedro Cachin
0 :  2
Sebastian Baez

13 Mar 2023 - ATP Indian Wells

Taylor Fritz
2 :  0
Sebastian Baez

4 Mar 2023 - ATP Santiago Open

Sebastian Baez
0 :  2
Tomas Martin Etcheverry

2 Mar 2023 - ATP Santiago Open

Christian Garin
0 :  2
Sebastian Baez
Stefanos Tsitsipas Last matches
W W W W L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

29 Apr 2023 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open

Dominic Thiem
1 :  2
Stefanos Tsitsipas

23 Apr 2023 - ATP Barcelona

Carlos Alcaraz
2 :  0
Stefanos Tsitsipas

22 Apr 2023 - ATP Barcelona

Lorenzo Musetti
1 :  2
Stefanos Tsitsipas

21 Apr 2023 - ATP Barcelona

Alex De Minaur
0 :  2
Stefanos Tsitsipas

19 Apr 2023 - ATP Barcelona

Pedro Cachin
0 :  2
Stefanos Tsitsipas

14 Apr 2023 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters

Taylor Fritz
2 :  0
Stefanos Tsitsipas

Sebastian Baez - Stefanos Tsitsipas Key Points

  1. The first set of Tsitsipas’ last six matches have ended in nine or more games
  2. The first set of Baez’s last seven matches have ended in nine or more games
  3. The last time these two met, the first set went to a tie-break

Our Sebastian Baez vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction

With the form that Tsitsipas has shown on the clay this year, it’s hard to go against the Greek, though there isn’t much value to be had on an outright win. Regardless of the opponent, Baez always puts up a good fight, as he showed in the previous meeting, which saw two of the four sets require a tie-break to decide. Another tie-break in this one could be worth a punt at odds of 2.2, but our main bet will be a much lower-risk option on the first set total games market. Our Stefanos Tsitsipas v Sebastian Baez prediction is for the first set to have over 8.5 games. 

Prediction :

First set over 8.5 games

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Sebastian Baez vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction

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