Sean Strickland vs Paulo Costa Prediction & Betting Tips - UFC n°302

Prediction published on 30/05/2024, 07:54  by Devesh Jaganath | Modified on 31/05/2024 at 09:19 in MMA Predictions

The co-main event on what should be an incredible UFC 302 card is a middleweight bout between former champion Sean Strickland and number seven-ranked Paulo Costa. Strickland is 28-6-0, while Costa has a record of 14-3-0. 

After surprising everyone by winning the belt decisively last fall, Strickland lost the title in a close, competitive fight against Dricus Du Plessis in January, ending his modest three-fight winning streak. The former middleweight champion combines forward pressure with sound defense, making him a challenging opponent. Strickland's style involves staying in his opponent’s face while using a shoulder roll and parry-heavy defense that disrupts his opponents' rhythm if they throw only one or two shots at a time. Though he is also a skilled grappler, he rarely employs his grappling skills. Instead, he relies on a steady stream of jabs and lighter strikes until he senses his opponent weakening, at which point he delivers more powerful shots. Strickland's key statistics include landing 6.19 strikes per minute (3rd all-time among middleweights), a 64.8% significant strike defense rate (6th all-time among middleweights), and an average fight time of 16:57 (2nd longest all-time among middleweights).

Costa arrives for this co-main event after a hard-fought battle against Robert Whittaker in February, marking the first time he has competed twice in a calendar year since 2017, when he fought three times. Costa is known for his aggressive, all-action style, excelling when he forces his opponent to move backward and fight along the fence. While he shows some patience on his feet, once he corners his opponent using his footwork and pressure, he unleashes flurries of punches. Costa’s kicking game is often underrated; he can deliver a variety of techniques quickly and unpredictably. Nicknamed “The Eraser,” Costa is known for his durable chin and enthusiasm for brawls. He performed notably well in his last fight against Whittaker, but maintaining that level over five rounds can be challenging for him, whereas Strickland has demonstrated his ability to manage this distance effectively. Costa's key statistics include landing 6.09 strikes per minute (5th all-time among middleweights), a 56.6% significant strike accuracy (8th all-time among middleweights), and 4 KO/TKO wins (tied for 3rd).