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Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Betting Tips - MLB
by Joseph King | in Baseball Predictions
The Philadelphia Phillies can book their spot in the World Series with a win when they host the San Diego Padres at Citizens Bank Park for game five of the NLCS. The Phillies lead the series 3-1 after a 10-6 win in game four and find themselves just one win away from their first World Series appearance in 13 years. The Padres, on the other hand, will now attempt to become just the 15th team in MLB history to overcome a 3-1 postseason deficit. Difficult, but not impossible, the Padres will need to take inspiration from their rivals the Dodgers, who overcame a 3-1 hole in 2020 to get by the Braves.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Form
Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
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Philadelphia Phillies - San Diego Padres: Form Analysis
The two Wild Card teams who advanced to this stage after notable upsets in the previous round, both teams will be thrilled to even have gotten to this stage. Philadelphia finished the regular season with an 87-75 record and saw a significant improvement in their home field performance. The Phils posted a 47-34 home record compared to a below .500 40-41 away record. On the other side, the Padres were consistent both home and away and actually finished with a slightly better away record at 45-36 than their home record of 44-37. The Phillies are now 6-2 in the 2022 postseason while the Padres are 4-4 after falling behind in this series.
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Philadelphia Phillies & San Diego Padres Squad Analysis
Taking the mound for the Phillies is Zach Wheeler who has been able to carry over his impressive regular season form which saw him finish with a 12-7 record and a 2.82 ERA. Wheeler pitched beautifully in his first matchup against the Padres in game one of this series, going seven innings without allowing a single run and striking out eight in what would ultimately result in a 2-0 Philadelphia win. Yu Darvish is tasked with keeping his team alive as the 36 year old takes the hill for the visiting Padres. Darvish was 16-8 in the regular season with a 3.10 ERA but has struggled with the home run ball in the playoffs. The Padres are 2-1 with Darvish on the mound this postseason run.
Philadelphia Phillies - San Diego Padres Key Points
- Padres’ starter Yu Darvish has now allowed six home runs in his three playoff appearances this year, totaling 19 innings of work.
- Phillies’ starter Zach Wheeler has pitched two shutouts in his three playoff appearances, allowing a total of just three earned runs in 19 playoff innings.
- The Phillies were fifth in isolated power in the regular season against right handed pitchers at .169.
- The Phillies were ninth in team OPS in the regular season against righties at .726 while the Padres ranked 17th at .699.
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Our Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction
We’re going to back the Philadelphia Phillies to get the win at home and advance to the 2022 World Series. Zach Wheeler has been the much more reliable pitcher between the two starters this postseason as Darvish has really struggled with allowing the long ball. He could very well struggle again here as the Phillies have feasted on righties this season with their extremely power heavy lineup. At home and with a chance to close this series out, back the Phillies to take advantage of the opportunity and advance to the World Series.
Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres - Other Interesting Predictions
Phillies to win first 5 innings
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