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ATP - ATP US Open

ATP 196 Spain
Pablo Carreño-Busta
08 Sep 2020 20:45
ATP 56 Canada
Denis Shapovalov

Prediction :

 

Over 39.5

 
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Pablo Carreño-Busta vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP US Open

 by Steve Ashfield | in Tennis Predictions

The US Open draw was blown wide open after the defaulting of Novak Djokovic in the fourth round. That led to a win for 20th seeded Pablo Carreno Busta and he now takes on Denis Shapovalov who is seeded eight places above him. Busta was 6-5 ahead in the first set when the costly incident for Djokovic occurred. That win has taken Busta into his third Grand Slam quarter final. The other two both took place in 2017 with the Spaniard making it to the last four in New York before losing to Kevin Anderson in four sets. Since then, he's struggled in Grand Slams with just two fourth round appearances in Australia, before his success (or luck) this week. Busta nearly lost in the first round, having to come from two sets to one down against Yasutaka Uchiyama. Before this week, his best 2020 performance was reaching the sem-final of a hard court tournament in Rotterdam in February. 

Denis Shapovalov is ranked 17th in the world (ten places above his opponent) but 13th in the live rankings. This is the first time he has made it past the fourth round of a Grand Slam but it won't be the last that's for sure. He had a great end to 2019 winning the Paris Masters beating Djokovic in the semi-final and Nadal in the final. Then with Canada, reaching the final of the Davis Cup. He hasn't really pushed on this year and lost in the first round of the Australian Open and the last 32 of the recent Western & Southern Open. This tournament has seen a return to form though with wins over 19th seeded Taylor Fritz and in the last sixteen, he beat seventh seed David Goffin. All of his matches have gone to at least four sets and he had to come from two sets to one down against Fritz to win in the third round. He looks to be in good form and up for a battle but has lost three of his four matches against his opponent.

Pablo Carreño-Busta vs Denis Shapovalov Form

Pablo Carreño-Busta and Denis Shapovalov Last Matches

Pablo Carreño-Busta Last matches
L W L W W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

14 Feb 2020 - ATP Rotterdam

Pablo Carreño-Busta
2 :  1
Jannik Sinner

24 Jan 2020 - ATP Australian Open

Rafael Nadal
3 :  0
Pablo Carreño-Busta

23 Jan 2020 - ATP Australian Open

Peter Gojowczyk
1 :  3
Pablo Carreño-Busta

20 Jan 2020 - ATP Australian Open

Jozef Kovalik
1 :  3
Pablo Carreño-Busta

30 Aug 2019 - ATP US Open

Pablo Carreño-Busta
0 :  3
David Goffin

21 Aug 2019 - ATP Winston-Salem Open

Pablo Carreño-Busta
2 :  0
Lorenzo Sonego
Denis Shapovalov Last matches
W L W W W W
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

5/6 (83%)

9 Jan 2020 - ATP Cup, Group B

Novak Djokovic
2 :  1
Denis Shapovalov

3 Nov 2019 - Rolex Paris Masters

Novak Djokovic
2 :  0
Denis Shapovalov

2 Nov 2019 - Rolex Paris Masters

Denis Shapovalov
0 :  0
Rafael Nadal

1 Nov 2019 - Rolex Paris Masters

Denis Shapovalov
2 :  0
Gael Monfils

9 Oct 2019 - ATP Shanghai Masters

Novak Djokovic
2 :  0
Denis Shapovalov

7 Aug 2019 - ATP National Bank Open

Denis Shapovalov
1 :  2
Dominic Thiem

Pablo Carreño-Busta - Denis Shapovalov Key Points

  1. All of the matches played by Denis Shapovalov in this tournament have had over 39.5 games played in them.
  2. The pair met in the 2017 US Open and the match went to three consecutive tie breaks.
  3. Busta had to go to five sets to win his first round match.

Our Pablo Carreño-Busta vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction

This looks like being a tough battle and likely a long drawn out one. Shapovalov is the highest ranked player of the two but has had to go to at least four sets in all of his matches so far. He has beaten two seeds though, including seventh seeded David Goffin. Busta can count himself fortunate to get to this stage but may well be the fresher of the two after playing just one set in the last round. He has a good record against his opponent so that will give him confidence. Go for over 39.5 games to be played in this match that could go either way.

Prediction :

 

Over 39.5

 
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Pablo Carreño-Busta vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction

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