Nicolás Jarry vs Tommy Paul Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Italian Open

Prediction published on 16/05/2024, 16:20  by Steve Ashfield | Modified on 16/05/2024 at 17:20 in ATP Italian Open Predictions

It's been a week of surprise results in the Italian Open outdoor clay court tournament. We're guaranteed a player from outside the top ten seeds making it to the final. Tommy Paul is the 14th seed and takes on Nicolas Jarry (seeded 21st) for a place in the final of this Masters tournament. The winner will play either third seeded Alexander Zverev or the 29th seed Alejandro Tabilo. Before this year, Nicolas Jarry had never made it past the first round of the Italian Open. He did win two ATP clay court titles last year and has already reached the final in Buenos Aires this year. Jarry is up to 18th in the live rankings and can climb up another place if winning this match. He's 22nd in the ATP Live Race and has reached this semi-final by beating just one seeded player. That was the sixth seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas in the last round. He had to come from a set down to get that win.

Tommy Paul is also having his best run at the Italian Open. His previous best was getting to the second round but he's easily beaten that this year. The American is now 14th in the live rankings and will move up to 13th if reaching the final. After a good start to the year on hard courts, he's 12th in the Live ATP Race. His form on clay hasn't been that great and this is the first time in 2024 that he's made it past the last 32.  He's had some good wins in Rome with defending champion Daniil Medvedev beaten in round four and then Hubert Hurkacz in the quarter-finals. This is his second ATP Tour match against Jarry and the other was on clay at Roland Garros last year. Jarry won that in four sets. They are 1-1 in matches played on lower tours and Paul did get a win on clay but that was ten years ago. We tip Jarry to win this match.