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New Zealand vs South Africa Prediction & Betting Tips - Rugby World Cup
by Devesh Jaganath | in Rugby World Cup Predictions
After two months of fierce competition, New Zealand and South Africa will face off in the grand final of the 2023 Rugby World Cup. The two most successful sides in world rugby will go toe-to-toe in front of a packed Stade de France on Saturday evening. Only one team will lift the coveted Webb Ellis Cup and take the outright lead as four-time champions. Can the Rugby Championship winners also become the world champions in the same year, or will the defending world champions go back-to-back?
You can also check out our full predictions for all rugby league and union matches on SportyTrader's World Cup betting tips page.
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New Zealand vs South Africa Form
New Zealand and South Africa Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
20 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
14 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
5 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
29 Sep 2023 - Rugby World Cup
15 Sep 2023 - Rugby World Cup
8 Sep 2023 - Rugby World Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
29 Sep 2023 - Rugby World Cup
15 Sep 2023 - Rugby World Cup
25 Aug 2023 - Test Matchs
4 Aug 2023 - Test Matchs
15 Jul 2023 - The Rugby Championship
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
20 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
14 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
8 Sep 2023 - Rugby World Cup
29 Jul 2023 - The Rugby Championship
8 Jul 2023 - The Rugby Championship
19 Nov 2022 - Test Matchs
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
21 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
15 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
1 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
23 Sep 2023 - Rugby World Cup
17 Sep 2023 - Rugby World Cup
10 Sep 2023 - Rugby World Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
1 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
23 Sep 2023 - Rugby World Cup
17 Sep 2023 - Rugby World Cup
10 Sep 2023 - Rugby World Cup
29 Jul 2023 - The Rugby Championship
8 Jul 2023 - The Rugby Championship
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
21 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
15 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
25 Aug 2023 - Test Matchs
19 Aug 2023 - Test Matchs
5 Aug 2023 - Test Matchs
15 Jul 2023 - The Rugby Championship
New Zealand vs South Africa Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
0 %
33 %
25 Aug 2023 - Test Matchs
15 Jul 2023 - The Rugby Championship
21 Sep 2019 - Rugby World Cup
New Zealand - South Africa: Form Analysis
After a poor warm-up campaign and a loss in the opening match of the tournament to France, many were writing off New Zealand as contenders to reach the final. However, the All Blacks proved once again that one should never doubt their ability and know-how in this competition. They registered big wins over Italy, Uruguay, and Namibia, but their undoubted best result came in the quarter-final when they beat the then-world number one’s Ireland 28-24 in a match for the ages. In the semi-final, The All Blacks were simply too good for Argentina and cantered to a 44-6 victory. Owing to those performances, the All Blacks have crept up in the betting odds and are now the favourites to win this match. Aside from the obvious prize of lifting the trophy, New Zealand will be looking for revenge after they were humbled by the Springboks at Twickenham just two months ago.
On the other hand, carrying the underdog tag into this blockbuster will not phase the Springboks, who have made something of a habit of doing just enough to get over the line when it counts. South Africa finished second in the Pool of death, behind Ireland, who were the only side to beat them in this competition. They were drawn against France as the outsiders in the quarter-final but managed to overcome the French by a single point in arguably the match of the tournament. But that was not the only nail-biter that the Boks were involved in as they returned last week to edge out England by a single point, thanks to the boot of Handre Pollard. The big question now is whether South Africa still have enough left in the tank, having already played Ireland, Scotland, France, and England in this competition.
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New Zealand & South Africa Squad Analysis
New Zealand's head coach Ian Foster has revealed the match-day 23 to face South Africa at Stade de France on Saturday, featuring one alteration in the starting lineup. That change sees Brodie Retallick replace Sam Whitelock in the second row while Nepo Laulala takes Fletcher Newell's place on the bench as the tight-head prop. Five players who were part of the victorious team in the 2015 Rugby World Cup final against Australia at Twickenham remain in the current lineup, including Beauden Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, and Aaron Smith, with Sam Cane now serving as the captain.
As he has done throughout the 2023 Rugby World Cup, Jacques Nienaber has stunned onlookers with his selection for this match. The ‘Bomb Squad’ returns for the final, with the defending champions opting for the highly debated 7-1 split on the bench. The notable changes from the semi-final starting team that beat England are in the halves pairing, with Faf de Klerk and Pollard at nine and ten, respectively. That means that neither Manie Libbok nor Cobus Reinach will play a part in the match, with Willie le Roux being the only back on the bench for Boks. Duane Vermeulen keeps his place at number eight while Jean Kleyn, Jasper Wiese, and Trevor Nyakane return to the bench.
You can also find the most updated odds, previews, and win probabilities for all rugby league and union matches on SportyTrader's rugby betting tips page.
New Zealand - South Africa Key Points
- Each of the last 17 matches between these sides have ended with over 31 points scored in the match
- More than 31 points were scored in each of New Zealand's last 46 Test matches
- Each of New Zealand's six matches in this competition have ended with 40 or more points
- Thirteen of South Africa’s last 15 Test matches have ended with over 31 points scored
- South Africa beat this opponent 35-7 two months ago during the warm-up matches
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Our New Zealand vs South Africa Prediction
It is somewhat fitting that the two most successful rugby-playing nations in the world will face off for the biggest prize, and there really is very little to choose between them as it stands. The All Blacks were more impressive in the lead-up to this match but it’s hard to overlook the fact that the Springboks beat them fairly comprehensively in their last encounter. Nevertheless, one constant has been that these sides never hold back against each other, and we have our eyes set on the total points market. We are certainly not expecting a huge total, but feel that the over-31-point option could be a smart way to go. Our New Zealand vs South Africa prediction: Over 31 points.
New Zealand vs South Africa - Other Interesting Predictions
Handicap South Africa +7.5
The Springboks have not lost by a margin of more than five points in their last ten Test matches.
South Africa to Trail in Match
The Springboks have made a habit of starting slowly and had to come from behind to win their last two matches in the competition
New Zealand vs South Africa match : Frequently asked questions
The 2023 Rugby World Cup between New Zealand and South Africa will get underway at 19:00 GMT on October 28, 2023.
The 2023 Rugby World Cup final will be played at Stade de France in Saint-Denis, France. South Africa lifted the Webb Ellis Cup at this very stadium in 2007.
Viewers from the UK can watch the 2023 Rugby World Cup final on ITV1, with radio commentary available on BBC Radio 5 Live and 5 Sports Extra.
In the US, the match will be broadcast on NBC Sports.
South Africans can watch the match on Supersport and SABC Sport.
New Zealanders can tune in to Sky Sports NZ or Sky Open.
TF1 have the broadcast right for French viewers, while RugbyPass TV will be covering the match for most countries across Europe.
If you are unable to stream the match or are not near a TV set, SportyTrader will be providing up-to-the-minute coverage of the 2023 Rugby World Cup final on their livescore page.
Only four teams have ever claimed the title of Rugby World Cup winners. New Zealand and South Africa have both lifted the Webb Ellis Cup on three occasions each. Australia have won the trophy twice, and England are the only Northern Hemisphere side to have ever claimed the title.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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