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Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction & Betting Tips - NBA
by Joseph King | in NBA Predictions
The East: Group B enters the final group stage game in the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament with third-place Miami hosting leaders Milwaukee. The Bucks have a perfect 3-0 record and would wrap up the top spot with a victory. The Heat, at 2-1, will have to win this game to have a shot at qualifying for the quarter-final. Should Miami win and the Knicks lose (NY is currently 2-1), the Heat would top the group thanks to their head-to-head advantage over Milwaukee. Should both Miami and New York win, the group will be decided by points differential, as there would be three 3-1 teams with a three-way tie in terms of head-to-head records.
Miami will be kicking themselves after squandering a 21-point advantage in their third group stage game against the Knicks last Friday. Had they been able to close the deal, the Knicks would have been eliminated and Miami would be in a straight “win and you’re in” type matchup here. Instead, they’ll now have to worry about getting the victory as well as sweating the result of the Knicks meeting with the Hornets. The Heat are also at a distinct disadvantage as their current point differential of +11 is the worst of the three contending teams (Milwaukee with +39 while NY has +18). They could be looking at the need for a blowout victory. The Heat come into this one on a two game losing streak after a 112-97 defeat to the Nets. It was the second straight game where they failed to crack 100 points, although they had rested their star players with it being a back-to-back.
The Bucks head to South Beach in fine form after a 108-102 win over the Blazers on Sunday. After a mixed start to the season saw them with five wins from their first nine games, the 2020/21 champions have now ripped off seven wins from their last eight appearances. The purple patch has moved Milwaukee’s record to 12-5 on the year and puts them third in the Eastern Conference.
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Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Form
Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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4/6 (67%)
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5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
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6/6 (100%)
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3/6 (50%)
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Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
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Miami Heat - Milwaukee Bucks Key Points
- The Heat have the fifth best three-point percentage this season at 37.8% while the Bucks rank third in the league in terms of road 3PT% at 39.6%.
- The Bucks actually average more points on the road (122.1 per game) compared to home (118.8).
- Milwaukee is giving up the eighth most points per game on the road so far this season at 119.0.
- The first game between these two teams this season produced a total of 236 points in a 122-114 Bucks win.
- The Heat are not defending the three-ball particularly well this season, ranking 26th in opponent 3PT% (38.1%) and 26th in opponent 3PT shot distribution (42.1%).
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Our Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction
Miami decided to rest both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in their most recent game which was the second leg of a road back-to-back and the last of a five game road trip. They now return home to the Kaseya Center with two full day's rest so should be raring to go for this one. We’re expecting the offense to put forward a much-improved performance, especially against a Bucks team that ranks 17th in adjusted defensive rating. The visitors are shooting the ball extremely well this season and rank third in effective FG%. With the Heat being a below-average three-point defending team, a high-scoring matchup looks likely. Our Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks prediction is for over 225 points.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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