ATP - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
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by Daniel Ngulu | in ATP Monte Carlo Masters Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz, the second seed at this year’s Monte Carlo Masters, will face off with 13th seed Lorenzo Musetti in the final. This will mark their fifth career meeting at tour level and the second as a championship match. Below are our predictions. Musetti, who is playing his first Masters final, defeated eighth seed Alex de Minaur in the semi-finals.
Alcaraz, on his part, got the better of compatriot Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to advance to his seventh Masters final. Musetti defeated Alcaraz in their only previous encounter to decide a tour event. He, however, isn’t the bookies' favorite to win this match; Alcaraz is.
The Spaniard has the head-to-head advantage over Musetti and has been in great form in 2025. Our preview below goes through both players’ forms while also taking a look at their strengths. One of them will win the Monte Carlo Masters title for the first time ever; who will it be?
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The Best Betting Odds for Lorenzo Musetti v Carlos Alcaraz Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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4.5 | 1.2 |
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4.5 | 1.18 |
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4.4 | 1.22 |
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4.6 | 1.21 |
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4.22 | 1.23 |
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Who will win the Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz match is: match to have three sets.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz game on 13/04/2025 of the current ATP Monte Carlo Masters season:
- Lorenzo Musetti has a 34.46% chance to win against Carlos Alcaraz according to Betsson ⭐ with the odds of 4.7.
- Carlos Alcaraz has a 65.54% probability of winning facing Lorenzo Musetti ⭐ with odds of 1.23 at Betwinner.
Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Lorenzo Musetti has a 34.46 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Lorenzo Musetti | 34.46 % |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 65.54 % |
Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz Form
Lorenzo Musetti and Carlos Alcaraz Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
12 Apr 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
11 Apr 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
10 Apr 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
9 Apr 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
7 Apr 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
25 Mar 2025 - ATP Miami
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
12 Apr 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
11 Apr 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
10 Apr 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
9 Apr 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
21 Mar 2025 - ATP Miami
15 Mar 2025 - ATP Indian Wells
Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
25 %
75 %
26 Mar 2024 - ATP Miami
1 Oct 2023 - ATP Beijing Open
4 Jun 2023 - ATP French Open
24 Jul 2022 - ATP Hamburg Open
Lorenzo Musetti - Carlos Alcaraz: Form Analysis
Lorenzo Musetti mounted a comeback against De Minaur to win their semi-final matchup on Saturday. It was the third time in five matches this week that the Italian had been forced to come from a set down to win.
Musetti is a strong clay-court player. One of his two career tour titles was achieved on such a surface. That was in Hamburg, where he defeated Alcaraz by three sets to claim his maiden tour crown.
The 23-year-old, who has moved up to 11th in the live ranking, has won 12 of 16 fixtures this year, with seven coming on clay.
From previous meetings, Alcaraz has the head-to-head advantage.
Carlos Alcaraz has won the last three meetings with Musetti. All three wins have been by straight sets, with one coming on clay at the French Open two years ago.
This strong showing in this fixture will have the Spaniard confident of adding to his bloated trophy cabinet.
Alcaraz, who has won 19 of 23 fixtures in 2025, has won 17 tour titles with five coming at Masters level.
The world number three defeated Davidovich Fokina by straight sets in the last round for his second 2-0 victory this week. Alcaraz is a clay court specialist and has won eight titles on the surface.
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Lorenzo Musetti & Carlos Alcaraz Squad Analysis
Musetti is a strong player on the court and possesses a strong backhand and forehand. He also covers his side of the court well with his agility. There is one aspect of him that has been witnessed at Monte Carlo, which could turn costly. In the semi-final, he once again dropped the opening set before recovering to win the match. That has occured in four of his five outings here. Alcaraz might punish that in the final.
Musetti playing four three-set matches at Monte Carlo could lead to fatigue issues.
Alcaraz is an agile player and moves well on the court especially on clay surfaces. He is an aggressive baseline player and possesses a wicked forehand, one of the best in the Men’s game. However, we havent been able to see his best in Monte Carlo. Even though he won 2-0 in his semi-final game, he labored through it. His killer instinct, as a top player, has been missing for a while and it is one of the reasons suspended Jannik Sinner is still ahead of him.
Lorenzo Musetti - Carlos Alcaraz Key Points
- Alcaraz has won eight tour titles on clay.
- Alcaraz has played a decider twice in his four matches in Monte Carlo.
- Four of Alcaraz's last six matches needed a deciding set.
- Four of Musetti’s five matches in Monte Carlo have seen all three sets played.
- Two of these players' three meetings on clay needed a deciding set.
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Our Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Our prediction for Lorenzo Musetti v Carlos Alcaraz is for this match to have three sets. Musetti and Alcaraz are exceptional clay-court performers. Both have registered winning records on clay surfaces in their careers and have also won title(s) on the said surface.
As such, we expect an intense contest for the right to be named Monte Carlo champion for the first time. Musetti and Alcaraz have also not won most of their matches this week in particularly dominant fashion. Having played multiple three-set fixtures, they both could be a bit jaded.
Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz - Other Interesting Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz to win
For our second prediction, we pick Alcaraz to win. The Spaniard is one of the most decorated active players in the ATP. He has won 17 tour titles, with five being at Masters 1000 level. As he has won the last three meetings with Musetti, his chances of being crowned champion in Monte Carlo are extremely high.
Get a retirement guarantee for the Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz game!
When you place a bet on the match between Lorenzo Musetti and Carlos Alcaraz you can get a retirement guarantee with bet365. This means that your bet will be paid out as a winner if your opponent retires.
It does not matter whether you bet on Lorenzo Musetti or Carlos Alcaraz , if your opponent has to retire from the match with an injury, you will get paid as a winner!
Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz match : Frequently asked questions
This match will be played on Sunday, 13 April.
This match will be played on Centre Court at the Monte Carlo Country Club in Roquebrune, France.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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