NHL Predictions & Betting tips

The 2024/25 NHL season is right around the corner and we have an in-depth look at the betting odds and which team will lift the Stanley Cup. We’ll also take a look at some profitable betting strategies that will be sure to help your overall win rate when placing your own bets.

NHL Prensentation and Predictions - Hockey

While not pulling the viewership of other sports such as the NFL and NBA, the National Hockey League (NHL) has a dedicated and passionate following which ranks it as about the fourth most popular sport in the United States, as well as the number one sport in many other countries. The fast-paced nature of hockey makes it ideal for those seeking an adrenaline fueled betting experience that is sure to get the heart rate going. The league is composed of 32 teams (25 in the USA and seven in Canada) which are separated into the Eastern and Western conferences. In those two conferences, the teams are then separated again into two divisions (Metropolitan, Atlantic, Central, Pacific).

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2024/25 NHL Prediction: Who Will Win the 2025 Stanley Cup?

The 2023/24 season saw one of the most thrilling Stanley Cups in history as the Florida Panthers withstood the Edmonton Oilers surge to win the championship. Despite going down 3-0 in the series, Edmonton would claw their way back to 3-3. They became just the third team in history (and first since 1945) to force a game seven after losing the first three games in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Ultimately, it wouldn’t be enough as Florida stood firm in the seventh game to capture their first ever Stanley Cup title. 

Edmonton will be back with a vengeance this year and are considered one of the top favorites as they look to end a 34-year Stanley Cup drought. Led by the NHL’s best player in Connor McDavid, Edmonton will be returning all of their big name star players for the upcoming season. With how close they were to winning it last year, it should push them to go the extra inch this time around.

One of Edmonton’s rivals for the trophy in the Western Conference will be the Dallas Stars. The Stars boast a loaded team that just might be the most talented in the NHL. They came within two points of claiming the best record in the NHL and knocked off two elite opponents in the playoffs (Vegas and Colorado).

Like Edmonton, the Stars will be returning all of their most important players. With another season under their belts and some impressive scalps in last year’s postseason, we like them to once again go deep in the playoffs. Our 2025 Stanley Cup prediction: a double chance on the Edmonton Oilers and the Dallas Stars!

2024/25 NHL Prediction: Odds on the favorites for the Stanley Cup

• Dallas Stars - 9.00
• Edmonton Oilers - 9.50
• New York Rangers - 9.50
• Florida Panthers - 10.00
• New Jersey Devils - 11.00
• Toronto Maple Leafs - 12.00
• Carolina Hurricanes - 13.00
• Colorado Avalanche - 15.00
• Vancouver Canucks - 15.00
• Winnipeg Jets - 15.00
• Vegas Golden Knights - 15.00

Odds provided by Bet365

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What Prediction For the Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP Award) in the NHL?

Connor McDavid comes in as the big favorite to win the NHL Hart Memorial Trophy, the award given to the league’s most valuable player. Winner of three MVPs already at the age of just 27, McDavid has already established himself as one of the game’s all-time greats. He’s been the perennial frontrunner for this award ever since claiming his first Hart Trophy back in 2016/17.

He’ll come into the 2024/25 season as the crowned jewel on a stacked Oilers team. Edmonton came within one game of lifting the Stanley Cup last season and they are currently being tipped by the bookmakers to make another deep run. This should translate into another monster points haul for McDavid.

The Oilers center, who has five scoring titles to his name, saw his scoring drop off in the 2023/24 season. However, this resulted in McDavid posting a career high mark in assists at 100. His 132 points was the second highest total of his career, bested only by his MVP winning 2022/23 season where he posted 153 points (a total that has been eclipsed by three players in NHL history: Gretsky, Lemieux and Yzerman).

Our 2024/25 NHL MVP winner prediction: Connor McDavid!

2024/25 NHL prediction: odds on the favorites for the MVP award:

• Connor McDavid - 2.60
• Nathan MacKinnon - 7.00
• Auston Matthews - 9.50
• Jack Hughes - 12.00
• Nikita Kucherov - 19.00
• Leon Draisaitl - 21.00
• David Pastrnak - 23.00
• Kirill Kaprizov - 23.00
• Cale Makar - 26.00
• Connor Bedard - 34.00
• Matthew Tkachuk - 36.00

Odds provided by Bet365

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What Prediction For the Vezina Trophy (Best Goalie) in the NHL?

It’s looking like it’s going to be a tight race for the NHL’s Vezina Trophy, the award handed out to the league’s top goalie. The Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck is the reigning champion after claiming his second career Vezina Trophy in the 2023/24 season.

However, our attention turns to New York Rangers shot stopper Igor Shesterkin, who is the oddsmakers’ preseason favorite. The 28-year-old is a one-time winner of the award (2021/22) and has finished among the top vote-getters in the last few seasons.

Shesterkin is in the final year of his contract, which gives him an added impudence to produce a truly elite statistical campaign. A second Vezina Trophy is sure to give the Russian added bargaining power as he reportedly seeks to become the highest-paid goalie in NHL history.

It would be a deserved contract extension as well, as Shesterkin has been the Blueshirts’ best player in recent seasons. With a record of 36-17-2 last year, Shesterkin’s solidity between the pipes resulted in New York winning the Presidents’ Trophy as they amassed the highest points total in the regular season with 114. 

Our 2024/25 NHL Vezina Trophy prediction: Igor Shesterkin to win!

2024/25 NHL prediction: odds on the favorite for the Vezina Trophy:

• Igor Shesterkin - 6.50
• Jeremy Swayman - 7.00
• Connor Hellebuyck - 8.00
• Ilya Sorokin - 9.00
• Thatcher Demko - 9.00
• Andrei Vasilevsky - 13.00
• Jacob Markstrom - 13.00
• Jake Oettinger - 13.00
• Juuse Saros - 15.00
• Sergei Bobrovsky - 17.00
• Linus Ullmark - 17.00

Odds provided by Bet365

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Beginner’s Guide to How the NHL Works

The NHL regular season sees each team playing 82 games from the months of October to April which leads to the Stanley Cup playoffs beginning in May. The NHL season is similar to the NBA season in both length and typical downtime teams are afforded in between games. Most teams play every 2-3 days although there are times throughout the year that teams will have to play on back-to-back nights. 

Upon the completion of the regular season, 16 teams take part in the playoffs (eight from each conference) to decide which two teams will compete for the Stanley Cup, the NHL’s championship game. The top three teams from each division win automatic entry into the playoffs and will be seeded according to their regular season record, which makes up the initial 12 teams. The next four available playoff spots go to the two highest placed finishers in each conference, regardless of division. This means that five teams from the one division could technically qualify while only three teams from another division get in.The structure of the playoffs follows many other American sports with each round being a best of seven series to determine the winner, meaning that the first team to win four games will advance.

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How to Make Good Predictions on NHL Games?

Below we've come up with five strategies and pieces of advice that should help to increase your chances of a successful bet and improve your overall betting process.

• Assess the starting goalie matchup
• Be cautious with puckline favorites
• Analyze detailed statistics 
• Situational spots and team news
• Compare odds across bookmakers

Below we’ll take a look at each in more detail:

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1. Assess the starting goalie matchup

Hockey is similar to baseball where the starting pitcher matchup is a decisive factor in determining the winner of a given match. In hockey, it’s the starting goalie matchup that you’ll have to pay special attention to. In a league where most teams average over 30 shots per game, the difference between having a top goalie vs an average goalie between the pipes will become apparent. Therefore, it’s important as a bettor to pay attention to who the teams are playing in the position. Not unlike many other sports, goalies are often rotated and the backup will see significant playing time throughout a season. If a team goes from an elite goaltender to a league average performer, the betting line will be influenced.

When assessing goalies, save percentage is probably the most important stat you’ll come across. The average for the league tends to be around .910 with anything below .900 considered to be poor by NHL standards. Conversely, a goalie with a save percentage above .920 is considered to be excellent. It’s not uncommon to see a team’s results follow congruently with their goalie’s performances, either improving or dipping along with the goalies form. This is especially true for teams or defenses that are heavily reliant on their goalie, such as an elite goaltender on a somewhat average team.

2. Be cautious with puckline favorites

Like most other sports, bookmakers provide bettors with point spreads for NHL games, which is referred to as the ‘puckline.’ While this provides punters with better odds to back a heavy favorite, it’s important to understand the pitfalls that sometimes accompany this type of bet. As an example: the Montreal Canadiens finished last season as one of the worst teams in the NHL with a 30-52 record. Naturally, they will have entered the majority of their games as the underdogs and thus receiving +1.5 on the puckline spread. What’s interesting to note is that the Canadiens finished as the league's best performing team against the spread with a record of 53-29 for a cover rate of 64.6%.

On the other side of the coin, the Dallas Stars made it to the Western Conference Finals and finished with one of the best records in the league. However, they would end up ranked 29th in their against the spread record for reasons similar to that of Montreal. The strength of their team meant Dallas would have been favorites in a large majority of their games, thus laying -1.5 on the spread. What’s important to remember about hockey and the NHL in particular is that the majority of the games finish with a one goal difference between the two teams. Keep this in mind when placing your bets.

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3. Analyze detailed statistics

We mentioned goalie performance above and assessing them based on their save percentage. Other excellent advanced statistics you can use are: goals saved above expectation and goals saved above average. These will help paint a better picture to the quality of the goalie that is playing and can be especially useful for those games that see the backup taking over. 

Another good stat to keep in mind is expected goals for (xGF) and expected goals against (xGA). If you are a passionate football punter then this stat will be a familiar one. Expected goals is a way to judge the quality of each individual shot taken using a numerical value. For example, a shot taken right in front of the goalie in a 1-on-1 situation is going to have a much higher expected goals value than a slapshot taken from near the blueline. Using expected goals is a great way to measure an offense’s chance creation ability without being over reliant on simply their goals scored. 

These are just a few examples of how to search for statistics that are “under the hood” so to speak. These types of metrics provide a greater insight into how teams and players perform and  should be essential tools in a sports bettor’s arsenal. 

4. Situational spots and team news

The NHL season sees teams play 82 regular season games followed by three rounds of best-of-seven playoff series before the Stanley Cup finals. It’s a jam packed schedule that spans the course of six months. With so many games to be played in a relatively short amount of time, it’s common that situations arise with teams playing on short rest. Most seasons see teams playing 10 or more back-to-backs, meaning that they would somewhat regularly play on consecutive nights. This can have a substantial effect on player and team performance.

You’ll want to be aware of these kinds of spots when analyzing an NHL game. Is a team playing the second of a back-to-back while their opponent comes into the game on three day’s rest and not having hit the road in a week? That’s the kind of situational factor that you have to account for. In a similar vein, you’ll want to keep up to date with the latest team news to stay on top of any potential injury announcements. Following a team's social media accounts is a great way to do this, as is regularly checking injury reports. The Avalanche are going to look much different on the ice if they are without the services of Nathan MacKinnon, for example. This is going to be reflected in the betting line.

5. Compare odds across bookmakers

Last but certainly not least, you will want to make it a priority to compare the odds at different bookmakers. We can’t stress enough just how important this is; this one factor can often make the difference between some sports bettors ending up profitable or in the red! You should make it a habit to constantly look for the best available odds for the bet you are looking to make.  Consistently locking in the best possible price will provide an instant improvement to your ROI!

The best method to achieve this in the most efficient way is to sign-up with as many betting sites as you can. Having accounts across a multitude of different sportsbooks ensures you will have the access to the largest pool of available betting lines and thus ultimately find the best odds. That’s not the only benefit as you will also be able to take advantage of bookmaker’s welcome bonuses, many of which can see you receive a 100% matched first time deposit bonus! To see the best welcome bonuses on the internet, visit our best betting sites page.

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What Not to Do For Your NHL Predictions

To give yourself the best chance at improving your bottom line when it comes to betting on the National Hockey League, there are a few pitfalls you will want to avoid. Here are some examples of what you should be cautious of:

• Not taking into account the goalie matchup.
• Overvaluing -1.5 puckline spreads and in turn, undervaluing +1.5 spreads.
• Chasing your losses (ex. Betting triple your normal amount to ‘make up for’ two previous losses).
• Not practicing proper bankroll management (you should have a fixed bet amount within your overall betting funds). 
• Not comparing bookmakers to find the best possible odds on the market for your bet.
• Betting strictly on a team’s name and reputation and not accounting for recent performance and form.
• Only looking at final scores of previous games and not digging deeper into the underlying statistics.
• Disregarding the betting odds and not understanding the implied probability behind them.
• Blindly betting on your favorite team.

More than a few beginner and experienced bettors have fallen victim to one or multiple of the above habits. If you can eliminate them from your betting process and approach each game with clear, rational analysis, you’ll greatly increase your chances of turning a profit!

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NHL Prediction: Statistics You Need to Know

We’ve compiled some key statistics from the previous season to keep in mind when making your predictions for the upcoming NHL season. All of the following statistics are taken from the current recently completed 2023/24 season unless stated otherwise:

• The average goals scored per team across the 32 NHL clubs was 3.10 last season.
• There was an average of 6.20 goals scored per game in the 2023/24 NHL season.
• This was an decrease from 6.36 average goals scored per game in the 2022/23 campaign.
• Last year saw the a slight decrease in power play percentage from 21.27% to 20.98%.
• The Tampa Bay Lightning posted a league-high 28.6% power play percentage last season, ranking as the 10th best mark all-time.
• Power play opportunities also saw an average of 6.08 combined per game.
• The Senators ranked first in power play opportunities last year with 283 total.
• The Montreal Canadiens finished last season with the best against the spread puck line record at 52-29 (64.6%)
• The New Jersey Devils had the worst against the spread puck line record last year at 31-51 (37.8%).
• The third period contained the most goals with an average of 2.13 scored per game.
• The New York Rangers finished with the highest points total last season at 114.

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In Short: How to Make the Right NHL Predictions?

When making your NHL predictions, be sure to follow the tips and strategies laid out in this article. Remember to always account for a team’s schedule, the starting goalie matchup and the underlying statistics in regards to offense, defense, and goaltending. Of course, you should also do your best to follow the news for each team that you are interested in betting on.

If you find yourself short on time and don’t think you’ll be able to fully commit to analyzing an NHL game, or you simply would like to hear the advice of our tipsters, head over to our predictions page where you can find the latest betting tips by our experts!

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The images featuring this article are licensed from the IMAGO website.